Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I think the warrants are key, given the major shareholders participated in the junior debt facility.
Pre L01 it was clear that existing shares were being sold at a % profit to what the warrants would be converted at. After L01 it would make sense to firstly derisk but secondly sell existing shares and have upside exposure in the warrants, the risk goes as they have no liability to excise in event of failure. These warrants are very material to the SP as they dilute by circa 50%. On any rise these strike prices become important as they drop into profit.
There is also the theory that these warrants have been hedged at higher prices, which could have increased current SP weakness, but again it n success lead to shorts closing and intensify any price rise.
It’s not going to hit 100p - adding £80m to the market cap off the back of one drill. With a S1 result I would suggest a top of 40p. If L01 had been an n target then it would probably be hitting 100p, but alot of confidence and momentum has been lost. Sometimes they are more important than NAV values that PIs fixate on but rarely are align with the SP.
It’s more a guess than an opinion ? What your trying to say is you would like to see S1 fail as you will get to trade the L03 appraisal well off a £10m market cap, I think there is a number of investors with the same strategy, and some believe if S1 hits they will still get in Sub 30p. I’m clear with my strategy, and it will only come undone if L03 doesn’t spud after S1.
If there is good news on deeps, I think it may come from A5, it would be ready about now and it’s the proven gusher. More than one piece of good news and there will be a stampede for shares.
Of course it may just be a PI buying in or buying back but these trades have been going thru for a few days now, worked thru by the mms.
It’s not an appraisal, it’s an exploration well that may prove connectivity between the two fields. However personally I feel more confident that it’s only a km away from a discovery, although after P1 we all know what a difference a km makes! It’s a 50/50 well with the trades having the safety net of the third well. I would double down on a bad result and I think I would be able to get out break even pre drill 3. So as long as you don’t panic or let emotions rule then I think it’s a drill worth being in at this SP.
With Brexit Saturday it’s a risk off market, spread betters closing positions if carnage Monday.
For a flutter, short the £ as there’s no way out MPs will ever agree anything.
Thanks Alex, I’ve read a number of similar articles but they still don’t state selling out of Micros, looks like they like the differing strategies of each company. Maybe they have just been taking out any higher risk of general clear out of non performers.
I’m actually asking this in relation tonSavp, where Miton are largest shareholder.
Hello,
A question on Miton, I have seen a few conversations about Miton selling down on small caps due to the merger. Is there any such statement by Miton ? I wondered if you knew, or anyone else for that matter. I stupidly asked this question on the RBD bb and got greeted by pitchforks and blood hounds!
the question wasn’t related to RBD, I never said it was, it’s not just been mentioned here, but on several sites. I know it was talked about on here.
If you don’t know the answer perhaps it’s better you go butter your toast?
Read the question again, your firing blanks, I’m quite aware of the Merger, it’s Mitons policy of selling out of small caps, it has been stated on a few bbs and they have on a number of shares, however I can’t find anything concrete relating to this policy.
whatever floats your boat, are you from Cheshire?
This should get exciting next few weeks eh?
BWM,
Given your reluctance to accept anything positive and work anything to “your” negatives, what would you call that?
And why should anyone take or accept your point of view? Are you qualified to give advice?
We all can read these sites, twitter etc, but none of it matters, only the RNS,
CB is on these sites a throwaway term, which in actual fact became popular to those day trading, indices:forex etc where rules and emotion are very important. On these sites it’s often a nice long word for the uneducated.
BMD states they will need to raise in next few months, a few months takes us to the end of the drilling campaign where the plan is to raise the money for FOIL, of course this was to be from reserve based debt but there could be some equity needed now given recent turmoil.
They will only get to raise equity if they are successful with the drill, so that’s fine by me!