Member Info for sankeys

No, the $16m will still invested for Rathin equity regardless of the 7m.

Perhaps they need to stop ramping the deal when it’s far from complete.

And extracted oil is above ground generally, but it’s a pointless argument.

Mitch - Oil in place, this would be total oil in the field, not all of this will be recovered, depending on type of oil, natural drive, permeability etc.

Woodstock,
West Newton is an interesting one, I have a position in RBD given the potential of the field, however I think there is massive over expectation on what a CPR will give based on one drill. The upside will mostly be in prospect and the 2C will be low until an appraisal program is complete. However before that CPR there will be volumetrics given and the EWT, this will give uplift but be wary of being in for the CPR.
IMO only of course.

Jester, oil and gas companies don’t pay for oil in the ground, they buy what can be extracted. 2P and 2C have a $ value to them. Any OIP outside of this resource has no value.
Any company buying an oil field that has had no commercial discoveries, only seismic, tends not to pay any upfront cost, only commitments to drilling, think of NS rounds or Mexico etc.

Yes agree, you look across many bbs and you will see PIs commenting on NAV values and SP targets, however they never really align. Oil or gas is worth nothing in the ground in reality. For OEX they have an existing gas sales agreement in place and proven commercial quantities tested, so with the right partner and an accelerated work program the value gap will diminish.
I think the risk here is that now all court proceedings have ended the incumbent partner drags its heels and the sale process is delayed - a number of UK oil and gas companies have had issues in India.
Hopefully by early November we will have some positive news including the Irish Sea assets which look to be a good move in developing near term cash flow.

In 2015 there was a CPR completed given the drill results adding reserves to what would have been known in 2013. Also in 2016 the PSC was given the option to increase by 10 years adding significant value to the asset.
About $20m would be about right at this stage given recent history, however if a competent partner comes on board I think it will be valued much higher.

Trade type - Oilx
Negotiated trade This waiver is available to systems that formalise negotiated transactions provided that transaction takes place at or within the current volume-weighted spread, or is subject to conditions other than the current market price of the share (e.g. a volume weighted average price transaction).

It’s red.

Not for OIP you won’t , or $3.50. You would presume a 30% recovery with the limited data and would be contingent not proven.

If you look at the SP action around the 19p area and then the sudden move to 22p, this explains that move as a few said at the time, a background order going through.
They still need to test but at moment it’s looking good. May hit over 30p for a Halloween Friday special!

Yes, last three days we have seen better buying pressure, with today really pushing on after a fade on open.
Hopefully maintain or push on tomorrow so we can all do the ‘ you wouldn’t want to be ‘ chant.

And the junior debt has preference on assets , ie Liberator, if the last two drills are not a success the worst case scenario is wipeout. Highly unlikely given L has proven and probable but after L01 there is always that risk, this is why SP is so low .
Also the coupon rate is 8% or 11% payment in kind,ie dilution, which would be considerable if say the market cap is at £10m.
These next two drills HAVE to hit, IMO.

Orifice more like....

But I’m not getting excited till the SP is over 12p.

I3e presenting 31/10 apparently

Looking good, sell pressure now looks to have gone.

I don’t see the warrants as a negative, if all taken they pay off the junior debt. But I don’t really see the point in guess the SP games if there is success.
The result at present is binary, what is important is what might happen to the SP in both outcomes.
Not long to wait.

Yes sorry 0.5%, you would not see a hedged short as the participant would still be net long.
All lenders received the warrants, circa 50m shares if all options taken, split between the 3 different strike prices.
I would be surprised if entities like LO would take full naked exposure to debt with a safety net of warrants that need operational success to cover. However speaking out loud and without looking, I’m guessing this debt has preference over equity on asset in event of default.

Hi BBN,
It’s all speculative, however there is no data to suggest that the other participants in the debt facility did not have long positions in equity and/or they haven’t hedged.
Selling existing shares pre drill at 52p to ‘flip’ with the warrants is a given - original shares had a 100% risk, warrants at that strike zero risk.
However again it’s pure speculation and history, the live factor is the warrant strike prices in any success case scenario and any resulting overhang.