Member Info for sandgrounded

Obviously not working properly!

Are the timings for these posts correct, or is the clock not working properly?

Starbright, thank you. That is very interesting and informative.

I doubt that 20p would be accepted by the majority of shareholders, but as JB says, it comes down to peoples aspirations .

One final point I thought about after I posted earlier and is just an observation. Newcrest received an initial offer from Newmont that was turned down and never reported upon, until the second offer was made and made public by Newcrest. Was the second offer much larger than the first?

Interesting times for sure. Going to bed now, but looking forward to tomorrow’s trades.

Thanks JB, Dip and others for the replies. We will have to see if Newmont want our share of Havieron and what they are willing to pay for it.

I know I wouldn’t vote for it, but if Newmont was to bid an equivalent of 20p a share for Havieron, would our BOD be duty bound to inform shareholders, even if they also thought it was too low?

Agreed it’s good to hear from you Dip.

Now if I could ask people on the following scenario please, as I am unsure what would happen, if this took place.

Assuming Newmont are successful in their takeover of Newcrest and then turn their attention on our 30% share of Havieron. If they made an offer for the 30%, which our BOD felt wasn’t enough and they wouldn’t increase their bid, could Newmont make their offer public, in the hope of causing unrest amongst the GGP shareholders in the hope of causing a vote on the sale?

When making a bid for another company, a bidder could go hostile and attempt to buy all the shares in their target company. However In this case I would think that Newmont would only want Havieron and I should imagine wouldn’t want to buy the whole of GGP, when they are digesting Newcrest and trying to divest some of those holdings.

I should imagine it is not business etiquette to go public, but would this mean as Shaun has hinted at, that Newmonts offer would really have to be eye watering for Havieron, or they would have to bid for the whole of GGP to get it?

Can anyone point me to a similar situation, when a company wants an asset, but not the whole company and has to fight for it?

Apologies Culpepper. I misquoted you.

“ The JVA, should serve as a backstop, if properly prepared, and should not be open to legal interpretation, though it might be. We don’t know what’s in it exhaustively. I expect sensible negotiation to prevail, and not for things to come to a sudden, grinding halt.”

Starbright. Apologies.

Star right, you are correct. It is a complex situation and it is good to look at the strengths and weaknesses surrounding it.

Whilst NEM could try and delay a Feasability study and decision to mine, you have to take into account the costs surrounding Telfer. Without Havieron, Telfer will be worthless. In fact it will be a negative drain on NEM.

In considering a bid for their 70% of Havieron and Telfer, a bidder would in my opinion be looking at a knockdown price for Telfer and may even see it as a negative value to the deal, for both assets. So there is no guarantee that they would get a better deal if they were to sell.

As Culpepper says, it is likely that an agreed way forward has already been discussed and we will have to wait and see how this plays out.

Bamps is correct concerning the decision to mine part of the agreement.

My discussion on right of first refusal and the stated case referred to, was in the event of the 70% holder wanting to sell Havieron before a Feasability study is completed.

Having said that, in Bamps post, I cannot see anything stopping the likes of Wyloo lending GGP the money to buy Havieron at fair market price and then GGP if they so desired, selling it to Wyloo for a ‘fee’ afterwards.

I would also say in my opinion, that to sell at fair market value has risks for the 70% holders, in that a Valmin type process may be used, which could only value the mine on reportable data. (As we saw in the 5% valuation).

I suppose that is a good reason for GGP agreeing to delay the next MRE valuation.

I had a feeling before the Newcrest/ Newmont story broke, that GGP were looking at doing a deal of some kind which was cash generative. I think it was one of the many interviews that Shaun did at the end of last year and into this year, which he hinted they could look at.

I think that was put on the back burner until our jv partner is sorted and the BOD know what the position is with Havieron.

So, if the 70% holders, ( whoever they may be) continue as before, GGP’s directors could still look at buying a ready cash generated business to help offset costs. (Probably an all share buy out)

If the 70% holders want to buy our 30% of Havieron, we will have the money to buy a cash generating business.

Or if our 70% holders want to sell, we can attempt to buy it with a little help from our friends.

In conclusion, even if we sell Havieron, we could still have a bright future ahead of us.

Only a week to go for Newmont decision. Holding tight.

Apologies for the previous post. I have ammended some mistakes and reposted it.

I think it would be marvellous if we could afford to buy the 70% plus Telfer. We have finance to cover the capex for the 30% of Havieron, but to buy the 70% and pay the extra capex May be a lot to take on.

I know we would have 100% of the profits from Havieron and wouldn’t have pay the extra processing percentage under the present jv agreement, but I worry about the cost of paying back such a loan in this period of high inflation and bank rates.

I think it would be marvellous if we could afford to buy the 70% plus Telfer. We have finance to cover the caped for the 30%, but to buy the 70% and pay the 3 trade capes, May be a lot to take on.

I know we would have 100% of the profits from Havieron and wouldn’t have pay the extra processing percentage under the present jv agreement, but I worry about the cost of paying back the loan in this period of high inflation and bank rates.

Bamps, if I may, there is a fourth option, which was discussed back 8n March. Thanks to Markj

markjphennesseyg

Posted in: GGP

Posts: 662

Price: 7.45

No Opinion

RE: Newmont/Newcrest7 Mar 2023 22:01

Not sure if the story has been posted before or not. Anyway may not apply to our circumstances but information anyway (I found it a bit hard to keep up with the twists and turns myself).

https://www.osler.com/en/resources/governance/2012/corporate-review-july-2012/a-battle-of-mining-giants-regarding-rights-of-firs

We could have Wyloo lending us the money to buy the 70% , under the right of first refusal, and then GGP selling it to Wyloo, with the possibility of a fee for our company or even an increase in the percentage holding of Havieron.

So many possible outcomes lol.

Apologies if posted before…..

Newcrest Mining Ltd.’s board is prepared to recommend a takeover offer from Newmont Corp. to its shareholders, interim chief executive officer Sherry Duhe said.

Newmont made a non-binding offer to buy Newcrest last month in a deal that valued the Newcrest at A$29.4 billion ($19.5 billion). If successful, the deal would create by far the world’s biggest gold miner, with sites in North and South America, Africa, Australia and Papua New Guinea.

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Newcrest opened its books to Newmont but initially stopped short of recommending the deal. However, after conducting its own due diligence on Newmont, “the latest offer is one that the board would be prepared to recommend subject to successful due diligence during the period,” Duhe said Thursday at a conference in Sydney hosted by Macquarie Group.

The due diligence period on the offer ends May 11. Dealmaking activity in the mining sector has ramped up in recent months, after two years of rising commodity prices left many mining companies awash with cash but still short of future production.

The deal is key to Newmont’s efforts to extend its lead over other bullion mining rivals like Barrick Gold Corp. It would also increase Newmont’s exposure to copper, a key material in the clean energy transition, at a time when analysts are predicting major shortages of the wiring metal over the coming decade. Newcrest wants copper to make up more than 50% of revenue by the end of the decade, up from around a quarter now.

Newcrest reported flat gold production for the first three months of the year compared with the previous quarter, while copper output fell about 10%.

https://www.mining.com/web/newcrest-board-backs-19-5-billion-newmont-takeover/

The amount of money it would cost them to decommission Telfer and it’s mine, I would hope that Telfer costs nothing and they discount the 70% of Havieron too.

Bancal, I see you did lol!

Ba cal, it is the software that LSE uses.
It identifies certain words/ phrases that it doesn’t like and replaces them with an asterisk.
Gets more wrong than right in my opinion.
Try typing it in.

I don’t have any problem with a share consolidation and will be buying more to ensure my holding divides equally by 20.
However I think the 1 for 20 will take too much liquidity out of the market for this share and it may prove difficult to buy and sell when the time is right.

Does anyone know how Dip is after the recent bereavement in the family?
His analysis is sorely missed, but understandable.
Best wishes Dip and family.

Patience required here. I know it’s frustrating, but you don’t win a hand of poker by going all on on the first two cards!