Member Info for Sanchez599

Aug 11, 2021 12:22:53 13.15p 500,000 £65,750.00
Aug 11, 2021 12:22:26 13.20p 250,000 £33,000.00

(Other side of each trade)

Aug 11, 2021 12:31:32 13.18p 500,000 £65,875.00
Aug 11, 2021 12:31:24 13.20p 250,000 £33,000.00

SP 13.2/13.11.

We have been dropped for every little thing that has happened in the last year. It's time we saw corresponding rises for the many good things that are now happening. These are not small items.

Great news for BelCo.

Last night, @NERSA_ZA did a 180 degrees about face and advised that in fact there will be no further public consultation process, expedited or otherwise, and that the final amended Schedule 2 with the new 100 MW generation licence threshold will be gazetted on Friday 13 Aug 2021.

https://twitter.com/chrisyelland/status/1425334881123540996?s=20

Following approval of the enormous US stimulus and investment package.

Strong progress on the electrolyte plant.

Proof the small nation that is India is now repeat ordering flow batteries.

And still US and EU prices haven't budged. The small easing in China now looks to be settling also. No doubt because supply is being focused elsewhere.

Bit harsh Clark, I was sharing good news ;-)

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mittavishal_delectrik-vanadium-energystorage-activity-6830852872775716866-1LP-

Meanwhile customers in India are repeat ordering flow batteries.

Good luck with your pathetic short GSA Capital. Bunch of knobs.

https://twitter.com/MickBrownWHUFC/status/1424794254191349769?s=20

Good spot.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/manager/gsa-capital-partners-llp/

Their recent short history. Not exactly anything to write home about.

Bit odd really, and seemingly quite ill-conceived - we don't seem like the type of company they would usually bother with. Interesting timing landing after the FM interview, the day of a hugely damning climate change report, some positivity building and at a V low SP.

Probably isn't as simple as just shorting us from 13p. They should have done that at 23p. All a bit weird and a day after Fortune talking about changing capital structure to attract II's.

Hmmm

US stimulus = recent US infrastructure deal / green deal for clarity.

Matt really nailed this interview as usual and as a quality interviewer does, really brought emphasis to exactly the right places. Fortune did really well too.

Key points for me;

The platform that BMN have built is hugely undervalued because of the reduced margins during expansion/refurb and a need to mature management of ops and methodology for guidance. It would cost multiples of the current MC to replace. The fact we now have a stable and expanding platform, alongside the fact SA is through the worst of its covid wave 3 and unrest, without having had the corresponding re-rate seems clear. As I have said before personally I think Q3 is this turning point. A run in V prices in H2 will be enormous to help catalyse this. Major upside point one.

The SP has suffered in big part also because the energy business has not had any granular detail on how it will deliver for the bottom line. The fact that is now slated as coming is a truly big deal. This creates a 2nd major upside point because that energy plays value has basically been removed from the current share price and reduced, arguably to 0 given a £153m MC. Confirmation that new leasing contracts are being written is a hugely important component to investors being confident this is coming soon because they crystallise the model and prove it. I really hope Mikhail is also involved in presenting all of this to the market!

It was very interesting to hear the focus on pricing methodologies for tech/manufacturing/mining/energy businesses raised again, alongside the problem of getting analysts to be able to value all these components correctly for Bushveld. Clearly this relates to the comments on II's needing change to the structure to be able to buy in. Does bring up the question of how. But clearly news is coming on this. I'm loathe to bring up the spinning off of BE. Lemur possibly one aspect of this. Hopefully it is more about refining and spelling out the overall vertically integrated proposition and structure, esp with BelCo coming into the BMN ops stable.

Great to hear the focus on US stimulus and energy market support for VRFB. We haven't really seen VRFB start to fly in the US yet, and given their suitability for long duration setups, data centres being just one, it's again a big point of upside that that market is warming to their deployment. Again reinforced by the commentary from the US last week regarding security of energy and vanadium.

Production/ops turning a corner, 5000mtv+ by end of 2022,lowering costs, BelCo coming online with projects and granular detail on BE. It's been a very tough couple of years but that has to be the start of the turnaround in value. Again H2 is going to be huge with Cop26 and the spotlight on SA and Eskom alongside all this, it will lay the foundations for a 2022 where BMN could really finally come of age.

£153m MC.

Best two words from the video....

'Incredible future'. Bring that on.

H2 is going to be a huge period for the company.

-Cop26 means renewables in the spotlight more than ever. Climate change is all over the news every day atm. BMN are right in a geo-political pinch point and are critical to a leading BESS tech and US security and energy. That has value.

- SA / Eskom will be pitching a $10bn investment opportunity for their decarbonisation programme which could be one of the most impactful anywhere in the world. This has to come with announcements from the WB BESS projects between now and then. SA will have to show it is backing its domestic vanadium industry and VRFB. The company have to leverage this spotlight. No ifs or buts.

- BelCo - we will be getting an RNS about the fit out completing and entering commissioning. That's the 3rd major site coming to fruition.

-100mw cap raise in self generation comes into effect. This means clients and projects for BelCo, beyond Eskom. The days of insinuating inquiries and leasing contracts are over. Now it has to be about real projects and contracts that the market can attribute value to. The market doesn't care for or want vagaries.

- License approval for the Minigrid. FINALLY

- Production stability and consistency, the very foundation of the company reinforced. Potentially we will see production exceeding the new overall monthly target. We have been nailed for the mistakes and naivety here. That looks to now be over. Q3 should finally put this in the past.

- A focus on costs and margin building. The company have to build back the profitability that is locked in this business. We have seen what a lean, mean BMN can do with strong vanadium prices. Growth cannot come at the cost of profitability anymore. Both have to be managed much better.

- A BoD with a point to prove and an SP to turn around. Anyone who has built/managed a business will know that this is where we see what our BoD are really made of. These moments of pressure are where reputations get made or broken. MN says naysayers will be proven wrong. Let's see it, especially from him as he has been invisible. It's time for some results that help the bottom line from all this advocacy, lever pulling and relationship building.

- Company structure / II's - clearly this is a focus for the BoD ATM.

- Comms - there is a review of all Comms taking place. Mikhail will be more involved apparently. The company have to see that in this covid era skirting round the edges of news is not good enough and doesn't cut through with investors whatsoever. They need to show some market savvy and deliver real positive newsflow outside of the Q's that investors can get excited about and reminds the market of the upside here. The market has shown that their current approach isn't working to lift the SP & the BoD know it.

V prices. Very minor softening in China (curbs) & v robust in EU / US. A few dollars rise would be huge and see us enter 2022 and a 5400 MTV capacity scale up in a great place.

Mikhail is brilliant when he gets going. Probably the most engaging, knowledgeable speaker in the whole company. I have also been informed he will be more involved in comms going forward, so perhaps as whatever is going on unwinds, be it just stablising ops, or there being more to it (II related etc), we are going to see a lot more of him. It's about time anyway.

Maybe but it takes more than just reliable ops to entice investors if you are actually serious about that. That's literally just the basics.

Lastly, just look at Largo and how they have gone to town with V+ and their own electrolyte story, quarterly reports and so on. Then look at us and the lack of imagination, energy and effort being made to tell our story to the markets. You could easily combine the sorting ops part out with reminding investors about the actual upside.

As Gambit says, the upside is vast. In all my models, we should be a minimum of mid 20's right now looking upwards. US and EU prices have not budged. We sell predominantly to the US and its almost as if V prices no longer count, after years of following them up and down.

Anyway, jmo! Feel free to disagree.

Look at as if it were your own business or any other in the VRFB space. At this juncture in the story, if you were a CEO who was deadly serious about growing your share price and bringing on more investors you would absolutely 100% be wanting to talk to the market about the VRFB/electrolyte opportunity and you would be super bullish when you did, not lacklustre, borderline depressed and hiding away the main guy fronting it. But they aren't because they probably don't want more retail. Meanwhile they are talking about how to adjust the company structure to get more II's or large entities in... So clearly plenty of promotion happening behind closed doors on that front.

Feels like we are collateral damage at the moment for whatever is playing out.

So true. It makes you wonder who all these shares have actually been going to. All round numbers on the way up, big buys at key SP points and someone trying to do the same bringing it back, - offering some relief selling opps and then capitalising on the fear of a retrace to where we have just been.

I wonder if someone is really trying to prise shares out of LTH's hands. And meanwhile the company won't talk about T/O's and has talked clearly about wanting more II's in. And then we have the US news last week.

There is an unavoidable question around why Bushveld, given the ridiculously suppressed SP aren't doing the many obvious things they could do to help lift it and to build sentiment. During the entirety of covid Mikhail hasn't been used once to talk VRFB, electrolyte, BelCo and so on.... That is the blue sky bit that most investors are most interested in and they don't even get the guy leading it to talk about it, at all. Ever. I mean even if you don't believe in PR, simply keeping the market informed is a basic responsibility for a business that wants to grow its valuation.

It's all a bit fishy.... If someone wanted in, you definitely wouldn't do anything to help the SP whilst they were making a move. And the company aren't. They are doing the absolute bare minimum as regards newsflow - compare 2018 to 2021 in terms of positive news items. Anyone with even half a brain could see that one of the best ways to address the low value would be a run of positive RNS' and a PR assault around electrolyte, SA VRFB opps, commercial and state, and Belco...

It is worth reminding again at this point that we are very close in value to a company that produces C8% of what Bushveld does. Even with the higher costs due to our expansion, that is insane. They aren't being penalised for needing $350m for their mine... Yet we are funded for our expansion and can't buy a serious rise for love nor money.

And if you are a PI selling, you could have done so at high 13's. Smh.

Sidenote - it is very interesting that you mention that FM avoided the T/O question twice.

Not drawing any conclusions whatsoever but just observing that it would have been very, very easy to hit that one for six.

Thanks Faramog. Your notes are appreciated. As you say, if we can meet or beat guidance going forward, that stops being a stick the market can beat us with and starts to be something to take pride in and add value. Beating the monthly run rate will be even better and will help with costs. It looks like this is all happening finally. That is somewhere to really build from.

Alongside production robustness the business really does need to start refining its image so people can see the energy / VI / circular green economy offer more clearly & our Directors really sell the integrated vision to the market. If they don't want to be treated as a miner, they need to not look like one. Hopefully they really get that image is important now. Hopefully shareholders finally do too! The TSX is backing Largo for all they are doing and their story, that's for sure.

It would be great if they finally started talking about real project opps in SA and in very real and candid terms - as they are with production -talk clearly about what BE is doing outside of BelCo. We deserve to hear fully from Mikhail.

It's time to move the conversation on from vague references to 100's of enquiries to real clients and projects, beyond just their own. If the BelCo fit out completes this year, then it needs clients and projects over the line pretty soon once commissioning is happening. That will get the market excited that things are becoming real. If they hope some of it will go to Eskom and some to commercial clients then say so! The selling of the VRFB vision is where they can really be blue sky.

If they get this right, for investors there is also a funded 50% production growth to underpin it all which is huge and results in lower costs.

We have all seen how much Evraz are spending on new capacity and we know the scale of costs required to replicate Bushveld's assets. Our MC doesn't come close to fair value. We are still FAR too close to FAR and miles from Largo. (Up 4.65% today 20.74 CAD).

Personally the most fundamental thing of all is that our BoD need to just get some positive newsflow happening. I mean its so basic, but a run of decent RNS' that aren't the quarterly updates would truly make the world of difference! This is a sentiment driven market and it literally thrives on newsflow.

Thanks again.

Yep, there are bound to be a few sellers because of relief at the bounce, those who like to slow a rise down and the technical position on the 50MA, but if you look past the here and now, the story has really taken on a whole new dimension in the last week. Obviously it was always there in the background, but now it has been acknowledged. I just can't see nothing being down about it, post the announcement. Otherwise, whats the point of announcing it to the world - 'hey China, btw BMN are really important to our national security, but we aren't going to follow up and do anything about it... '

Given our recent publicity in the US and the fact we are named as critical to defense, construction, energy and thus security, and Biden's recent speech on taking on China's belt and road initiative, it would make sense for some Americans to have a stake here - before the Chinese... Not saying thats what is happening but surely, they aren't just going to want to leave us exposed at £150m, where anyone could come after us... We are located right at a crucial fulcrum of global politics.

BBN thought there was more to the rise than just the news last week, I am inclined to agree.

This last year it seems that we have been penalised for everything even remotely bad whether it has even affected us directly or not, and any small issues have been magnified to an extraordinary level.

In contrast what should be much more influential macro trends have had absolutely no bearing on our valuation. This includes the acceleration in the energy transition, the obviously growing focus upon tackling climate change, a vanadium price that has risen 80%, the WEF's global build back better agenda, the critical importance of what we produce, the fact that we are growing despite the fact it has been behind targets, the fact we have bought Vanchem and brought it into operations with barely a hiccup, the fact we have Mokopane licensed, Enerox getting close to coming to market.

As a throw back to better times, we hit 28.5p upon the purchase of Vanchem and gaining the Mokopane license. At this point they contributed nothing to our production.

Guess what the vanadium price was back then... You may be surprised.

$28.5.

Today, when Vanchem is actually up and running and operating brilliantly and reliably, - FeV prices are $40-45 and our SP is 13p.