Member Info for Sanchez599

The sort of outcome seen in the Tesla fire would truly be a nightmare in many of the locations that really need reliable minigrids the most, such as rural African settings, mines, villages or townships. How many of these locations have teams of local firefighters that could afford to wait whilst one of their primary energy sources burns out over days.

You can see exactly why a long life, long duration, low maintenance, stable, safe setup that doesn't degrade such as VRFB would be far, far more suitable.

It was really great to see us explicitly named as a critical supplier of vanadium to the US and fundamental to energy security, engineering and construction, last week. That kind of international recognition should put a real premium on our SP and must put us in the crosshairs of more serious heavy-weight institutional investors. It certainly reinforces what a role Bushveld are playing globally, at a time when our SP is completely detached from that reality.

I've been having a look at a lot of mining companies (I won't share which in case people are invested in them) this weekend just to get a barometer of how we currently sit against a wide range of peers and sense check our current position and it is just remarkable how low our MC is against so many un-monetised assets and companies needing hundreds of millions of dollars in development costs to generate any revenue at all. It is hard not to conclude that despite the issues in H1, shareholders really have been gaslit into an insanely pitiful valuation.

13p was a good start, but we have such a long way to get back to anything like a suitable value for a company with our geo-political profile. Hopefully Bushveld will help by keeping up the comms momentum they are building whilst more eyes are on us.

Thread following up this great tweet from Bushy100 and its relationship to our ridiculous valuation, one that is still completely detached from reality.

13p gets us back to where we were on the 5th of July and only adds 15m to our MC and still keeps up £600m below Largo and c£30m above FAR, who don't have a mine.

https://twitter.com/Sanch3z599/status/1421401625701269505?s=20

https://m.engineeringnews.co.za/article/ramaphosa-sees-big-green-economy-opportunity-in-bold-climate-commitment-2021-07-30/rep_id:4433

And these two from Chris Yelland:

12 days to go & counting down, to meet deadline of 10 Aug 2021 set by @PresidencyZA Cyril Ramaphosa on 10 Jun for amending Schedule 2 of the Electricity Regulation Act to increase the threshold above which a generation licence is required from 1 MW to 100 MW

https://twitter.com/chrisyelland/status/1420664641265537029?s=20

And with ref to an earlier post about how important Cop26 will be for Bushveld and bringing attention to the acceleration of the SA energy transition (@and globally);

'Use COP26 to position South Africa as destination of choice for rapid decarbonisation investment – Moosa
Use COP26 to position South Africa as destination of choice for rapid decarbonisation investment'

Article link on tweet.

https://twitter.com/chrisyelland/status/1420771712442978306?s=20

South Africa's national utility @Eskom_SA will be closing its Komati coal power station by 2022 and will repower the site with solar energy coupled with local just energy transition initiatives.

2022 is a much quicker timeline than SA normally do things...

https://twitter.com/AntonEberhard/status/1421049196413693954?s=20

There is also a tweet below from a SA renewables research team at Stellenbosch Uni referencing an option for Eskom of listing on the JSE.

https://twitter.com/CST_Energy/status/1421049160392916993?s=20

If Carlsberg did adverts for VRFB... This might not be made a meal or by VRFB suppliers publicly, but you can bet it will be getting into a lot of pitch decks.

AVL/VSUN must be rubbing their hands at this news. With all respect to the firefighters having to work out how on earth to put it out.

Following on from SG's post see below some interesting commentary from Evraz Q update;

'External sales of iron ore products increased by 8.4% QoQ, driven by higher production in Q2 2021.
Sales of vanadium products fell by 3.6% QoQ, mainly due to changing the regional sales and product mix to support the increased FeV demand, resulting in longer lead times.'

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/sales-of-vanadium-products-fell-by-3-6-qoq-from-evraz/

Shifting demand pressures are reflected in the notes below.

European and US FeV prices are again moving up.
Link: (Thurs 29th)
http://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

European prices look to have bounced off mid 39's. Now back into the 40's. It's worth also noting Vanadium Pentoxide is pushing higher at a very respectable $9.6 per lb - it usually leads the way for the general trajectory of future pricing. A push higher looks on the cards as H2 progresses and would obviously combine well with a strong Q3 report.

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/

Further evidenced by this from Largos recent quarterly report; (and from Roskill)

"Vanadium prices continued to edge higher in Q2 2021 following limited material availability and increased demand from the steel industry. During Q2 2021, the average European Fastmarkets Metalbulletin price per lb of V2O5 was US$8.19, representing an increase of 16% over Q1 2021 and 33% above the average price seen in Q2 2020. We expect vanadium prices to remain elevated and well above long-term averages throughout the second half of 2021.”

Note also from the Q update (link below) that Largo are into the commissioning stage for electrolyte production. We can debate whether we should have been earlier - (clearly the truth is that we are going to arrive to meet local demand / and our own V supply capacity), but soon the global electrolyte market is going to have some decent coverage. With AVL/VSUN to to follow.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210721005149/en/Largo-Resources-Announces-Second-Quarter-2021-Production-and-Sales-Results-Positive-Vanadium-Demand-Expected-to-Continue-in-H2-2021

At 5000mtv / $40 average pricing we will be generating more than our current Mcap in revenue PA just from V production with increasing margins and without any uplift for electrolyte, SA VRFB progress, investments or assets.

Up again - now 20.6 CaD. More fuel to our fire. They are over £750m now Vs our £141m.

Thanks all. Just looked in.

A reminder we have a MC only £20m above a company that produces c8% of what we do, excluding the added value of Enerox, BelCo, ATM (if you take those out, we are arguably being valued around the same which is ludicrous) and we are £610m below a company that is our only comparable listed peer. We are also the fastest growing vanadium company around, teething problems or not.

Inescapable upside. Horrifically overdone drop.

Also if you haven't seen, check BBN's tweet on the Nersa approval yesterday. SA VRFB for the commercial sector is coming and the market is opening up.

Next year we will reach capacity of c 5000 MTV with a significant chunk of our expansion paid off and costs much lower and continuing to go down.

Roskill are stating that price pressure will remain until at least 2024. There is no new supply coming and a chunk of ours will soon be going BelCo.

In H1 V prices were $23 and the SP hit 23p. There has been an 80% increase in commodity prices, we are at 11.5p, hugely oversold and have been punished for covid, SA unrest and the need to get on top of production.

All these areas are improving and we are now profitable. Fortune stated categorically we would be in a much better position next year and we can already see that happening.

These lows are way overdone and are designed to make you question everything. The MM's have been more than happy to take people's shares at these prices and why wouldn't they. The business has clearly hit a positive turning point and people are choosing to sell when arguably things are much better than H1.

There is a huge amount of upside from here. We will have much, much stronger economics as time passes from this point on.

And remember next year we have BelCo and electrolyte coming too - our 3rd major location and a new product offering. Not to mention Enerox and undoubtedly we will see much more VRFB progress.

It's sometimes hard to keep the faith at times like these, but just like the beginning of covid, we will come through it.

This is an archetypal buy when others are fearful moment. When there is a big turn around ahead and the SP and current holders have taken a beating for things that have already improved.

As a brief follow on - Largo have just this minute hit CAD20.25.

We were both 18 (CAD Vs P) not too long ago. The only thing that has really changed is a flat production level for us, slightly higher costs (now dropping) whilst we have had a few growing pains. Largo are nearing their max production level right now.

There is no way that deserves a 40% drop in SP.

After all their due diligence, Orion are in at 17p. They certainly did more than the MM's and most investors.

https://roskill.com/news/vanadium-quarterly-update-from-bushveld-minerals/

1. Read this.

2. Look at these

Largo £750m
Bushveld £139m
FAR £118m

We are being absolutely screwed at this current SP.

Mgmt have not helped us this year but they have clearly learned some valuable lessons going forward and unlike some, aren't pretending they have got everything right when everyone can see they haven't. A degree of frustration is pretty reasonable. The share price was 50p in 2018. Its 11.5p today. And that is contrary to everyones predictions.

Personally I am glad to see more effort being made in Comms. We also need material newsflow - it's bleeding obvious we need to supplement production reinforcement with some positive newsflow to bring the market back onside.

Also had a reasonably decent reply to an email to HQ. Won't divulge contents due to disclaimers, but there are two comms elements coming this week and Mikhail will be more involved going forward.

Hard not to notice this would be a great entry point for an II (relevant for a business that wants more II's and less retail).... Only 13% above the $22m 2018 equity placing in 2018. Over 30% below Orion's entry point. Trading below NAV, oversold since the beginning of July. Vanadium prices up 80% since Jan.

I wonder who is absorbing the sells (at c. yearly lows) this week.

And if you don't care for or like people's opinions...

Don't read them.

It seems pretty clear that after a grinding downward move over a number of years, the Q3 report will be the item that finally ends this protracted downward move.

Q3 will be the confirmation that production is fully back on an upward trajectory, after a Q2 that has in essence just steadied the ship. We then enter a very positive period that imo will finally reignite the story. We will be closing in on much increased production finally, a major upgrade at Vanchem, BelCo really motoring through the construction schedule towards commissioning and actual projects and of course Enerox. I am expecting and hoping for a H2 V price rally as the current major global covid wave subsides because the world simply has to get building and markets are already constrained. China have made much ground whilst the west have been struggling and are continuing to push on, despite a bit of a slow down lately. Its all there in their relaxing of steel prod. capacity limits & resilient pricing. The pressure is also on economically in the West and post COP26 the energy transition will have to accelerate and more critically it will be even more in the public eye.

We are in for an interesting summer in the meantime. Markets are clearly a bit risk off, but there is going to be an innate tension between those looking at what lies ahead beyond the summer and wanting to get in cheaply, fighting the tail end of frustration with the previous period. We have been in a market that has been making the majority of its money from selling down for a long time, despite all the efforts to be positive and with much justified frustration too as Bushveld have themselves acknowledged. We have clearly been fighting a losing battle as regards the SP for some time. I think we are going to see it finally start to flip during this period to accumulating shares & buyers at what will become a more and more pronounced undervaluation as we near the Q3 report, news and increasing Q4 production levels. Any newsflow relating to SA really going big on VRFB at that point (from BelCo contracts to Eskom, Coal to renewables re-purposing etc) will set the SP alight. It will help before then of course.

As for the LSE Vs Telegram thing. Each to their own. Most new investors will look at Twitter or here and that's just a fact. None are perfect - hence they all exist. I don't see Telegram, Twitter or LSE making the SP move atm. There will also always be contrasting opinions (and egos). That's life and something I think from this journey most people can now recognise and deal with talking about. It hasn't all been good. Paying more attention to that might have actually helped some to time buys and increase their holdings. Some of the most positive will have.

H2 however stands to be a stark contrast to H1 and I think will see us at the start of the longer term uptrend everybody really wants.

Who said this was easy. Amazon lost 70- 90% of its value multiple times.

There is only £13m in difference between our MCaps.

They produce less than 8% of what we do.

Fortune - get a grip of this.

Thanks Nick, I and I am sure others, appreciate you taking the time to reply. I think the list you wrote and the disconnect between V prices, the scale of the company and what has been achieved is exactly why most of us are still hanging on through grim death. I agree that recent moves have made any TO possible at a much lower level than would have been historically possible. Let's hope it isnt the SA gov that will ultimately do it ;-)

Bassguy, with reference to Nick's reply, Mikhail taking hold of the BE story in the public domain is a very easy win and would go a long way to building comms and moving the story along. It's a shame that we have such a great speaker, and we never use him. Fortune is not a VRFB expert and it shows.

I think most would agree that galavinising sentiment and building momentum from this point could be done pretty easily. It will just take the board actually doing it and really going for it. It's actually the lack of balls they are showing to fight this nonsense that is probably the most annoying thing of all.

$23 V price in January with a 23p peak. $39.75-44.5 now and we are sub 12p. If that doesnt spur the company into action nothing will!

Ninvestor - I've learned much from this experience. In the long run this will make everyone better investors. Some tough lessons for sure. I agree that there is also a big difference between known holders discussing the good and bad and opportunist trolls. It isnt hard to spot the difference.

Nick, if you don't mind me asking. How do you perceive the current SP and position of the business. Do you credit the T/O talk with any substance? Are you happy with the performance/newsflow? Thanks.

That's exactly right Mogwhy. Left-field, blue sky news is exactly what is needed.

There is no buying because the company have not even tried to build any momentum or get any newsflow out there to really excite the market. Now Q2 has gone, what is next?

We are forever defending Bushveld on this BB, but where is their effort to defend us? In answer to your question yesterday James0309, the only reason my personal opinion has changed from endless to praise to asking questions more, is that the company are not doing anything to really warrant unrequited support and there are questions to be asked given the current valuation. From his VM investment vehicles and property leases, share bonuses and salary Fortune is extracting huge amounts from the company. When I see him and our vast directorate making an effort to go above and beyond and restore value, they will get my full support again. We are the only people not seeing any ROI from Bushveld and no one really questions that, even after this long of poor SP performance.

If it is a TO, what are they doing to resist it? If it isn't, that's in some ways even worse because the company is just lettign the value of our investments deteriorate and deteriorate with no interventions to try and support their investors.

There is a huge H2 ahead of us. I am sure I am not the only one who is hoping deeply that our management finally step up to the plate and stop this rot, which in effect has been going on since Nov 2018. I am not sure how anyone can just be endlessly positive about this. Respect to those who can. It seems crazy to me. The company doesn't seem to have our back as much as we have had theirs over the last few years.

And no offence to those who just want to see everything as positive, that's also their prerogative.