focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I’m holding at the moment, target 14-15p, but really they should be sealing multiple deals like this per week in this environment.
My first buys were at almost £3 so initial holding is well underwater, but I've also added lots more at 240 and again now at 220.
I've never been so relaxed holding a share. Even at the current rate the cash will exceed the market cap within months but then we've got second waves, new product launches that allow mobile testing, and US sales that the board said they are "pleased with the progress" with.
When going for a takeover the acquiring party can short sell a few % of shares in the company to keep a lid on the price. Yes they have to buy them back at a higher price if the deal goes through but it's a small price to pay buying back 3% of shares at a high price than pushing the value of the whole deal up.
I think that's the way it's got to go. I wouldn't turn down a special dividend but an acquisition would be better for long term shareholder value.
Either way, they can't sit around with £100m+ cash in the bank later this year.
The OEM is responsible for manufacture and distribution but Primerdesign owns the IP.
I think in Europe the agreement with Bruker is where a lot of the current sales are coming from, yet NCYT is still making a margin of more than 50% per test sold.
Given they can do that with someone else handling distribution I wouldn’t be surprised to see royalties at 20-25% with an OEM.
Chart was primed for a rise but the speed this morning has surprised me. Could be someone in the know.
Often short positions are simply a derivative hedge against physical shares held. They may for example hold a big position in physical shares but their risk management means they need to be able to exit the position quickly if it goes wrong and they know liquidity in a small cap means they can't exit a 3% position quickly so they take out a derivative contract as a hedge. It is technically 'short' but doesn't necessarily mean they expect the shares to fall. Complete speculation though, they may just be nuts and are playing a very risky game for very little potential reward.
I was re-reading some old RNSs this morning, where they mentioned the 288k and the option to expand.
It actually sounds like the option is with Novacyt, if they can produce more the NHS will take them straight away.
"Novacyt has initially committed to supply 288,000 per week to the NHS, with the option to expand the agreement. "