Member Info for sageoflondon

Such movements are frustrating in the short-term but really don�t matter long run. Price will eventually equate to business performance - even if only for a short time. I was a Laird holder and was 10% down until an offer came in today. Share price up circa 70%. I am also a holder here and will likely add more. The key risk here in my opinion is a Corbyn government that is adverse to private healthcare. That said there is a clear role for private healthcare going forward in my view. I am still amazed at the amount of people who wouldn�t spend �200 on an appointment with a consultant yet are happy to spend the same amount at the vets on a dog or cat. I think Spire will eventually be acquired for somewhere between �3 and �4.

RG obviously had a good offer for his circa 5%. For the record I don't believe RG would ever acquire a quoted company - it would certainly be out of line with his prior dealings - buy undervalued companies and then eventually realise value. He obviously still has a large stake here and likely sees further upside and will probably sell into further strength and institutional interest. You can't just sell holdings of that size when you feel like it. He also has a chunky Petrofac holding - small in relation to the overall Petrofac market cap but over 3%. Met him 20 years ago - quite a character

The Medi share price isn't just impacted by the potential acquisition of Spire, there are multiple factors impacting that share price. If it is related to this then a fall could indicate that an earnings enhancing deal may not go-ahead (competitor may outbid or they walk away along with consequent fall in Spires share price) or that they are going to have to pay more for the deal. It's impossible to know which factors are influencing without being a Medi shareholder buying or selling.

I already have quite a large holding in this and as such don't really want to increase my holding. I am however considering it. I was a shareholder in Quantum Pharma - that is in the process of being acquired by Clinigen. That went a little too cheaply in my view. It was profitable for me as I had bought after the fall, however some long term shareholders would have lost out. Given the large shareholder register here I can't see this going for a 300p 'song'.

I agree - it shouldn't be a big deal. No one goes in full tilt with their first offer - unless it really was opportunistic. There will be considerable cost attached to actually making an offer - lawyers, accountants, bankers etc - these are sunk regardless of whether an offer is successful or not and could easily total circa �5m to �10m. That's why they will likely come back with something better. Personally I think 330p/340p would secure the deal, but 350p would probably guarantee it. I'm not privy to some of the average prices the large shareholders are carrying in their books.

The last update was a good result - basically management have done what they said they would. I think these shares will re-rerate somewhat over the course of the next 6 months. I for one am very happy to hold at this price (I picked up a few more on Friday). I think �2 a share by March next year is easily possible. Any outperformance could drive the share price higher still.

It doesn't say a lot more - the full article that is. It goes on to say that 'one big shareholder said Mediclinic's offer was opportunistic and that any offer below 350p a share would be unacceptable'. Given there aren't many large shareholders who picked up a major holding post the fall I would imagine that a few are thinking in a like minded way. That doesn't mean 350p will be achieved but it sets the bar really if Mediclinic are serious.

That looks like a disclosure of his position at that point in time at 16.38% - I can't see the movement piece?? That's normally in the disclosure?

There is no guarantee but you have to think that they either need to dispose of the holding or move to 325/330p. I think that level would do it. On the other hand they may offload their stake to HCA....... Woodford upped his holding prior to the share price increase.....not after.

Yes that's precisely what it means. They have dropped their holding. The price does not appear to have been impacted in a negative way however.....here's to a good result tomorrow.

Yes that's precisely what it means. They have dropped their holding. The price does not appear to have been impacted in a negative way however.....here's to a good result tomorrow.

It doesn't sound like it's a done deal yet so the share price will likely lag until there is a firm announcement re price. I still find the way the papers talk about this company as 'troubled' laughable. It's hardly troubled in my book. The shares have taken a hit but that was way overdone in my view. I started buying at £2.60 and kept going at £2.20. My average is around the £2.40 mark. £3.25 would be a decent profit but would ideally like £3.50. Woodford a big holder here so he'll get some say.

This should strengthen the team considerably and provide some additional focus. This is going away in my drawer for a year or two. I will be surprised if this isn't worth a lot more in 2 years. Solid balance sheet and a defensive product.

Mediclinicaid 360p a share for their stake, this was floated in 2014 at 210p a share. We have a stronger balance sheet, more hospitals and we are just over 220p. Ok so some isolated bad news and a payout has hit sentiment along with a drop in NHS elective procedures. Demographically however this should be a good long term play if management do their bit. London would have taken 12 to 18 months minimum to set up and would be a drag on profits as it ramped up and tried to compete against established players. Not to mention the huge cost of establishing an operation in London - probably �250 to �500m and the impact that would have on the companies risk profile. I agree London best parked at present. There has also been significant management change - we still have an interim CEO. The only real risk in my view would be the election of a Corbyn led labour government, otherwise this is a bargain entry point.

RNS from one of the Singapore sovereign wealth funds I believe.

If he knew the price he would not be able to trade based on the fact he knew. I doubt he knows. I am sure he has a very good idea however. Even if there is no offer these shares might slip back to pre offer but they are likely to be a lot higher than £1 in a couple of years providing the company continues on its current trajectory.

Not sure - Sigma will be acting on behalf of a client as I don't believe they take trading risk - just brokerage. Either way it looks a little odd. I would have expected them to declare the type of derivative. Difficult to infer whether they have a perfectly hedged long position or whether they have in fact made an error or the form. Either way Pitchcroft have gone big with 6m plus shares representing not far short of 4% of the company - a significant proportion of which is via CFDs.

The main impact should be the one off profit and reserving impact. If they continue to provide reinsurance for impacted classes then they need to ensure that subsequent pricing builds in the change in Ogden rate - if not they should walk away from the business. The magnitude of the change was not helpful as unexpected.

So per the RNS we are talking about 80% of new business from QROPS having the potential to be impacted - note that is potential to be impacted. This should not impact the recurring revenue from the QROPS already in operation. It will take a while to get a fuller / more accurate picture with respect to the actual impact on growth prospects in my opinion. This certainly isn't a cliff edge situation in my opinion. As ever do your own research. Interested to hear others thoughts. In my view this was oversold yesterday.

Not sure it's all Brexit related - if it is assumed that Brexit will cause a global downturn then yes maybe. Petra's costs not $ or £. Revenues in $ so not impacted by weak £. I will probably lay add at this price.