Member Info for sageoflondon

Providing you have decent diversification - including that which is non-correlated to say a general market fall then I don't really buy the less risky thing. Was BT say or Centrica less risky than say ASOS or something similar.......complete value destruction for the former over a long period. Can happen to any company in reality. I have also seen enough frauds in my time to know that they can also happen to any organisation and would never be all in for that reason alone. Effectively my portfolio is also my pension, hence the diversification.

I try not to get concerned with daily, weekly or even monthly movements. Yearly movements a little more as that provides a general direction on a share. I think this got a little ahead of itself and might come back a little. If the market kicks back it's clear that this will come back more. I'm still estimating that we won't hit £20 until around 2026, which is fine for me. Overall I am looking for around 10% per annum across my portfolio. I have a mix of growth, boring dividend type stocks and some that try to do both! Overall 10% doubles me up every 7 years. I can weather the storm of a serious market pullback as long as the dividends don't completely fall away at the same time. It can happen but as long as the portfolio is sensibly diversified it shouldn't. Whilst I am a good 5-10 years from retiring I want to run a portfolio that works for the next 10-30 years - quite happy to have equity risk in my portfolio in retirement. Aiming for a mix of capital drawdown and income with a target of 4% per annum when I do eventually start drawing down.

I am fortunate that 95% of everything I own is held within a SIPP or ISA wrapper (have maxed them for years and my wife's allowance too). This means I don't have to worry about dividend tax etc. I can however see how it is definitely a consideration if you have your holdings outside. Why add to income when you don't need to and incur more income tax.

Well you're likely worth around the £2-£3m mark. Which in all honesty with some planning could have been protected in an ISA......drop in the Ocean in reality. Likely to be more impact from the extra cost of the 1.25% Employers NIC.

Does this make much difference to the majority though? If married you have the ability to shelter £40k per annum into ISAs every year, or say £800k over 20 years, excluding growth. That means with 7% growth you could shelter a portfolio from dividend taxation fully, that is likely worth over £2m (that's a very rough calculation, could be less, could be more), but you see where I am coming from. Say 4% yield, that's £80k per annum tax free. That doesn't even include pensions. There cannot be many who actually pay tax on dividends, unless we are talking about HNW or business owners that utilise the tax benefits of dividends over salary?

Trustpilot is unstoppable though. I am also waiting for an update on Graphcore. The Nvidia takeover of Arm could be important here. Will Arm be acquired or will the door be left open to a potential combination with Graphcore? ps if Ui Path's valuation is attractive then Blue Prism has to be a bargain full stop.

I am currently less concerned with Grow premium over NAV than I am with respect to how 'stretched' some portfolio valuations are. A good example is Ui Path - great company yes, but is it really worth 23 times what Blue Prism is valued at ($32 billion US versus $1.4bn) - yes it has 3 times the revenue ($607m versus $200m). This looks silly to me. That's a sales multiple of over 50 - crazy. Sure it has some larger clients and does things a little differently but is the valuation justified. If it is then Blue Prism is very undervalued. I think we have been taken along with the 'froth' in the US market to an extent. It's a double whammy if valuations come back 20%-30% - we lose NAV and the premium on it - important to think rationally and not get carried away I think. Will be good in 5 to 10 years which is what I am thinking about. I'm not adding at this price though.

Well it didn't fall like I expected it to. It looks like Ramsay are still around or most are now anticipating the improvement in operational and financial performance and realise this is worth around the bid price and likely some more on top. Positive. Alternately the hedgies are biding their time before dumping. Get on with it, I would like some cheap stock please.

I agree they have had a number of 'Corporate' incidents. That is unfortunate. I always saw Ash as a very capable COO type individual - he has proven himself in this area. This is what is key in terms of running the hospital empire - no big scandals, improved CQCs etc. They have done very well in this area. He isn't a big deal making CEO - and in all honesty we don't need that. The Chairman should have taken care of this in reality with the CEO assisting in making things happen. The Board got this wrong under the direction of the Chair. New Chair required - CEO may decide to go, but I don't think he needs to as such.

If I were Ramsay - I would separately negotiate the purchase of Mediclinic's stake and bide my time. They know Mediclinics price - they would likely get it for 240p given they require the cash and were in the first instance willing to sell for this amount. Maybe this will happen maybe it won't - I suspect not. I think Ramsay knew they were getting a good deal - my view - this is worth around 300p. I think they would have got the deal across the line at that level. This was however too rich for Ramsay who wanted this on the cheap and who can blame them. Spire is a good business operationally and improving all the time. It doesn't have the large premium London hospitals but not everyone wants to travel into London if they require surgery, especially at present. I think the regional model Spire have in place is very valuable indeed. Ramsay needed this deal and won't just walk away empty handed.

I have a strong suspicion that the vote did not accept the bid. I could be wrong but I just can't see it going through. I think you are right - some temporary carnage. The Board need to go after this - this will be the second costly error they have made if the bid doesn't go through. Yes the arbitrage funds will disappear and the share price will likely fall 20%-40% in the short run. In my opinion this will be a buying opportunity. The hospitals are still there and we have one of the biggest NHS waiting lists in history. This business has value - to extract this value will require a management team with the belief, motivation and appetite - I'm not sure that our management team have this. If the bid is declined this will (again) become a more significant part of my portfolio. It might go through but I think it unlikely - we will find out on Monday morning presumably.

Both BooHoo and ASOS are good companies. A little different but both have good ROE and ROCE. In 10 years will this be worth at least double - undoubtedly. Today way overdone in ASOS. Each to their own bough. Have no idea what will happen short term.

I was only referring to Revolut - and it was in my head whilst working - it should have been 64.7p I believe…..more with Trustpilot…

It definitely looks like an additional 20% on to NAV will be achieved in 12 months providing we don't have a big pull back generally. What goes up can also come down. I would almost prefer a steady 20% rather than the bigger increases and pullbacks....it doesn't work like that though.....:-)

Whilst it is good to see this news on the valuation of Revolut I am very pleased that we haven't invested at this valuation. It certainly looks like a full valuation to me - but I am by no means an expert in valuing a fintech that has global potential and growth prospects baked in. It appears that Draper are good at valuing / assessing worth as we haven't injected more at the current valuation. It is good to see the team not getting carried along with the 'hyped' valuation (my view only). The fantastic news is that this is worth an awful lot more than we have paid for it which can only be great news. This increase has to be around 70p per share.........................

So per advfn - RARE ALERT on betaville - stated intense takeover speculation. It also stated that people following the situation said Redde Northgate had received an approach for the whole company. The approach is said to have come from private equity. It is not however clear whether the approach would be acceptable as some shareholders may not be willing to accept less than 500p per share. Personally I wouldn't accept less than that and I think 500p per share is on the low side. This has great growth ahead of it and the potential for 600p in the next couple of years, possibly sooner. If this is true then I hope larger shareholders like Richard Griffiths decide to stay with it for the long hall .

I wasn't aware of this but if this is indeed the case then there is no way this deal is going through. This is just my take personally - I think the next 3/4 years will be good for Spire. I don't think we will return to the margins of old just yet, but I think there are good profits to be had. People are more willing to access private treatment than ever before at present - often out of necessity. I think the takeover bid is cynically low in all honesty. I would prefer to have a chance to see where the business can take itself. I do however think that management's position is now untenable - they turned down a higher offer (315p) 4 years or so ago, now accepted one at 240p which they managed to increase to 250p. We are in a significantly stronger position than we were then. Everything looks positive. Let's remain independent and see how things go.

I'm not convinced we will move up lots / or down lots in the space of a month or two. I don't like to make predictions about that. I may well add some to my young daughters ISAs. I think there is a high probability that the share price will be higher 10 years down the line!

Having sold my shares at a higher price, I am taking advantage and starting to buy back in. If the bid goes through I make a small amount - around 8.5%. If the bid fails (more likely) I will lose say circa a max of 20% on my small new tranche - I will also use any failed bid pullback to re-establish a decent sized longer term holding again. The private sector will be essential to reducing the NHS backlog - like it or not. This is a strategic asset in that sense. It does have debt but it also has good cashflow and people / bodies who need our services more than ever. Ramsay's bid is on the low side for definite, if they get it across the line they will have done well. I don't think it will wash. I think they needed to offer 300p to be successful personally. Will be happy to be sitting on 300p plus a share in this 2-3 years down the line, possibly more. I think that once other parties realise the potential they will be quick to jump on this and there will be further much improved offers down the line.

Given the words 'materially undervalues' were used by Fidelity who hold not far off 10% I don't think a 4% increase from 240p to 250p is really going to cut it.