Member Info for sageoflondon

It looks like the expectation is that the bid won't be accepted - hence no one believes 250p will be achieved. If the bid falls away completely (possible) then the share price will likely fall back further in the short term at least. Long term this is probably worth considerably more than the bid, but this might take a while to achieve.

A bit of perspective - the AA had about £3.3 billion of debt and a similar earnings profile to saga (not identical I know). That's in a different ball park. Right to keep an eye on it. To me this looks sensible. It means they have basically taken the need for another expensive rights issue off of the table by creating more headroom, no way they should need to come back for more now - we know how expensive these are. I could be wrong but it looks sensible to me. Providing things return to normal they will have options in the future to bring the rate down, even if there is a redemption required etc.

Let's not get carried away says the conservative one amongst us....:-) Very happy with this finish to the week in all honesty.

I agree re why we need the £80m. Either it's prudence - i.e. sensible given no clear indications as to when tour will be back up and running, or we are closer to the financial headroom than we thought. It's certainly a lot more sensible to borrow like this than pay a silly rate on something like an RCF which would likely be nearer 10%, especially if we know we are likely to draw on it.

It still looks about right to me for the risk profile. If we were say Unilever I could understand what you are saying? We are considerably smaller, with 50% of our business not yet operating. That means risk. Sage doesn't really have that problem, Tesco doesn't now.

Seriously - this isn't a high rate in the bond market at all? Tesco have plenty at 5% and they have a safer profile than us. It really isn't that bad. I was never expected less in all honesty. I'm pleased we didn't end up at 6%/7%. I think they have done a decent job.

Whilst a 200% increase in value over 2 years would be amazing, I'm not convinced that is exactly what he meant. I think the only way that's possible will be with a few subsequent placings. It's a lot easier to see if we have a couple more raises in that time. If management decide to stick with some of the more mature portfolio companies, whilst wishing to continue with an accelerated pipeline this may well be achievable. A couple 0f £250m placings, a bit of growth etc could get us there. I think it's an ambitious target - obviously I would be very pleased with that, especially with no placings.

I think you meant through 900p in the coming minutes! :-)

A move to 980p would be very much appreciated. I still think a pull back (general market) will happen at some point in the next 12 months (but will likely be wrong). If the market does pull back I will be very happy to buy more of this. I look forward to seeing where we are in a years time from now.

Well this went to 200p and beyond a lot quicker than I anticipated. All eyes on progress against plan now and any potential opportunity for outperformance. I think we can likely expect the shares to tread a little water at present until we have a further update. I think the B&M (big customer of UPGS) results and the planned store expansion is a huge positive for UPGS. Still very happy to hold my shares here (something I have done for over 3 years now). I feel very fortunate indeed to have averaged 38p on this one overall. What started as a punt on a turnaround in what I thought to be a quality operation (post the post float share price fall) has turned into a quality investment that I am very happy to hold longer term.

Possibly another interested party might come forward. HCA are a possible or another US entrant. Again let’s remember the offer was 315p about 3 and a bit years ago. That was turned down. We now have one of the biggest NHS waiting lists in UK history - the offer undervalues Spire in my opinion.

There may also be competition concerns……

It’s not a great offer. Mediclinic offerred 315p around 3 years ago. Spire will be doing very well at present - there are waiting lists for private surgery. I think the bid is too low personally.

I have a decent amount of confidence on most of the 'newer' companies coming through. A pull back means Draper will also get a cheaper buy in price should a pullback happen. The bit that could hurt us is a pull back in some of the bigger companies we own a stake in - I know I have said this before but Cazoo concerns me. I'm just not convinced - am I right or wrong? I have no idea. I may well be missing the bigger picture on this - I just can't help thinking that there is nothing really clever about it. I bought a car in November last year. I saw it online, drove 30 miles to take a look at it, came home to think about it then we went into lockdown again. They drove the car to me to drive one more time and took mine in part exchange when they left - it's not like Trustpilot say - huge and ever growing barriers to entering that market with each year that passes and Trustpilot becomes dominant.

I don't think a specialty insurer normally updates on dividend at this time of year. This is normally a quiet quarter for Cat activity, hence would not be prudent to speculate on dividend at this point. The all important updates will likely be half year and of course yearly. Q4 is the big one for Cat activity - bad hurricane season and dividends won't be there, low level of activity and we will be collecting. Nature of the industry. I like the fact there is an element of non-correlation with the wider market in terms of factors driving performance.

I think anyone investing in Draper (or anything similar) to make easy money is going to be dissapointed. There is every chance that the next few years may be pretty rough on growth and startup companies especially if interest rates really begin to rise, which is not good for companies that still need to raise money. This is long term holding for me and I will be buying more in the event of any further significant weakness. My view is invest with a very long term view - i.e they believe in the companies in the portfolio and want to see them grow over a long lifespan of which there will inevitably be peaks and troughs. I think Draper is one of the best ways to have exposure to some of the brightest and most promising growth and startup companies in the world rather than investing in individual companies of that mould which is very risky (and difficult to access). I have said before than I think the next year or two could be tough, but also provides a good opportunity to increase the overall size of holding and build for the longer term. I think it's unrealistic (given gains of the last 12 months) to expect things to continue upwards. What goes up will come down, go up again etc - it's always going to be volatile.

That's if there isn't a negative impact on NAV as a result of technology falling further......it's not a given that won't happen. That statement can easily change.

I sort of agree, but in today's environment steady as they go is a good thing, with a little more on top of expectation. Providing the van hire side of things holds up well and we re-open, there should be some growth to come in the accident management part of the business. Once firing on all cylinders I think this has every chance of getting to £5 in relatively short order. Great to have a dividend along the way as well.

I always keep some cash back - not normally 70%! I would never go below 10% or so....that cash is for special situations. They always arise in any market. Situations where I believe the market has got it very wrong. It was the case on UPGS almost 3 years ago - it fell from 230p to like 40p in a matter of months just because one year wasn't in line with projections - it was never a permanent problem. The float pricing was a little overdone and it fell like a stone. Similar to Highland Gold - but that was fear post Financial Crash. That was bought for 300p last year (upsetting). I averaged 40p on that for a buy in. The dividends alone in that time almost paid for the shares. None of those would have been possible without a cash reserve to buy in when the price looked silly for no fundamental reason. That's the reason I always keep something back. I also always have some dividend payers - they maintain my interest when markets are falling a little or aren't really moving. I also figure it's a good structure to have when I eventually retire (I'm 46). I will always take an income in retirement based on a mix of income / capital growth. I can't find anything that is stupidly undervalued at present. I'm looking hard though.

Inflation is very bad if you have dollar denominated debt that's for sure. The dollar rises off the back of inflation expectations and you end up paying more back (if you happen to be say an emerging market). Shares fall on inflation expectations as people expect the risk free (feds, gilts) rate to increase, making equities, bonds less attractive. Obviously there are exceptions to this. Aviva has a lot of investments that support it's insurance / life business - essentially leverage!