Member Info for Sageman

AJEP, I wish you luck. If the discovery is per the RNS this will probably be progressed by a JV or a buyout. A buyout would leave the vast bulk of the upside with the purchaser but could lead to a swift profit for shareholders. I have invested in a number of oil companies in the past. Discovery is one thing commercial extraction in a timely manner is another. The NPV is very much based on the oil price but also the rate of extraction (time value of money). Thus if a large company had the cash to swiftly install the 150 wells the value is magnified by the swifter payback. Interesting times but actually I don't care I just want to make some money. GLA

AJEP I am also from a financial background and have done similar figures albeit based on 1/3rd being recoverable. Either way this sp should multi bag from here. We need a CPR and people to start trusting. I ask myself what the reaction would be if share coin Sanderson at UKOG similarly hit oil. UKOG have had endless dilution (like here) and Sanderson has lied "the train is leaving the station". I suspect initially there would be disbelief and people running for the exit having held big loses for a long time. At the very least people would need a lot of convincing. and evidence from 3rd party due diligence. For my part I have taken the view that the discovery is the truth and that the evidence will follow and along with it the cash flown and a substantial re-rate. Time will tell but fingers crossed I now hold 0.36% of the company.

Try not to over think it. The share doubled in a week. People often sell half on a double. It is not market maker manipulation just healthy price movement. I have bought more on the dip. I expect this to be my share of the year. I have also rebought Matad and 88e this year as it would be rude not to! GLA and enjoy the ride on what I consider to be the most undervalued share I have come across in over 35 years of trading

When something goes from 18p to circa 40p in a few days there will always be profit taking. The old adage is to sell half on a double. Some people will have bought with next to zero research on the company just based on a chart. In contrast I bought based on the RNS. If only a fraction of the 1.9 bl barrels can be recovered this will multi bag. As a producing company they now have decent cash flow I am unsure why they would need a placing except to accelerate the production wells. So best to get CPR etc first. Talk of a placing is thus somewhat premature IMHO.

Yes but XOP is live at 64 CAD = 37.58

Stas I have no idea where the SP could reach and won't until we see the CPR. What I do know is that if only 1/3rd of the oil in the new discovery can be recovered the current MCap is considerably undervalued. This should be a multi bagger but in life nothing is guaranteed. Nice that the share had a day of consolidation in a negative market and still rose on healthy volume.

Stas totally agree. I now own 0.28% of the company and the MM's are not getting mine anytime soon. If everyone else did the same the SP would rise.

The US was closed for Martin Luther day yesterday. It will be interesting to see if they react once they open. I sold out over 4p last year with a good profit having held underwater for ages. I have bought back in the last week hoping that history repeats itself.

Nomad agreed but this is very different. The oil sector is hot right now and seen as a major recovery play for 2022. COPL have revenue which should limit the need for placings and further dilution and the recent oil find is huge. The fact that the RNS was on the 10th at 7am meant that it just wasn't on the radar. Firstly a £30m market cap isn't on the radar but it was the first working day for most people. It disappeared in the noise.

Hi fatsuperman I think you are right. The news came out on what was the 1st Monday back for most analysts at 7am. No one really tracks a £30m market cap stock as it is too small for most fund managers. The same applies in the US with today being Martin Luther King day. I think this has genuinely slipped under the radar...for now.

Mr Exec that is my point. 500m bl of oil NPV is worth a lot more than £60m. The market has been very slow to catch on here.

Cransley very funny NOT. A bit of research shows a share consolidation of 100 to 1 so 0.02 equals 20p. It was 18p immediately prior to the discovery. So a 1.5bl discovery has only translated into an 18p sp rise ( circa £30m increase on the market cap). Clearly the risks pre discovery are different to post discovery so I am happy buying now since I did not possess a crystal ball. I remain puzzled by the modest increase.

I am still puzzled. Discovery of circa 1.5 billion barrels. Company in production talking about circa 150 wells at 1000-3000 wells per day and a market cap of £60m. Please can anyone explain what I have missed.

I have bought in today on the back of the recent find. Forget the SP I have been looking at the market cap. It is only £60m and looks hopelessly undervalued despite the recent rise. I feel that I must have missed something given that we are producing. Can any LTH point out what I have missed please? Thank you

WG your numbers have no more credibility than those of Ocelot. All numbers are based on variables which are subject to both change and conjecture

WG trying to save “ mug punters” is laudable but self appointment to the role is questionable. I assume investors here are all adults and they should all be aware that this is a very high risk gamble. If so it is up to them not you or I to tell them what to do. Ocelots numbers are on the optimistic side but a sp is actually often determined by sentiment. If you think 0.5p and he thinks 6.5p then I have reasonable hope in the middle around 3p. Irrational sentiment could propel this share rapidly in either direction. Being able to take advantage is another matter. Each to their own but I am crossing my fingers for good news here. GLA

Agreed Ocelot which is why I feel I have a decent chance of seeing 3p . Time will tell

WG with all due respect what a question to Bill. If it’s your “life savings” what the heck are you thinking of speculating in Angus for?! This is a high risk potential high return / bugger all return roll of the dice. The current sp reflects the current risk/ return potential. If you believe we will get to gas production in the coming months and that gas prices will stay high and we will get decent flow then you should expect the share to bag from here. This applies to potential bidders too. If your views are for a negative outcome then sell and move on. In the meantime we just have to wait and see.

Someone mentioned COPL on this board last week - one word respect! I didn't have enough time to research it and thus didn't invest. Tipped at 18p now 33. Horse has now bolted so this is not a ramp. Just wish I had the time to investigate. Thanks anyway.

I don't see anything negative in de risking a holding. Many here will have bought to average down . If you buy a tranche at 0.65 and can sell it at 1.05 why not take a 70% profit. The tranche has lowered the B/E, if it continues to rise then the remaining holding benefits and if it falls back you can but again without increasing financial exposure. Angus has been "anguish" for many holders so who can blame people for trading. In reality I hope for 5p , I expect 3p but absolutely nothing is guaranteed.