Member Info for Rykan

Bakky

There was talk on here about blockchain, I think you posted questions re that. I think Toby mentions "innovation project" in the proactive investors video. I'm not sure what the innovation project is, not meaning to mislead anyone, I know the same as the next.

To clarify, there will be an announcement regarding the "innovation project" at the end of August.

Best

As well/btw, At the end of August or thereabouts there will be an RNS re the blockchain initiative. Whether that creates said demand we will have to wait and see.

MacGaz, thanks I found the article.

https://domainnamewire.com/2015/02/26/minds-machines-currency/

It could be a possibility - with a decentralized blockchain running the "books" rather than a centralized registry. Still a long shot to be the actual idea we hear about in 7-8 weeks.

One idea... years ago TLDH/MMX applied for and received a patent for sending cash via domain names. I don't know if MMX still has that patent or the previous gang that run the shop somehow "took" it...

But, domain name blockchain payment, could be a possibility... but it seems too obvious (to me) and there are already so many ways to send cash.

Try as I might I cant find the article about the patent re cash and domain names.

atb

Toby Hall interviewed on proactive investors. End of August or thereabouts they are going to release info about this innovation project.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/9813/minds-machines-enjoying-continued-strong-demand-for-vip-in-china-9813.html

Well we had 1.15m domains at end of June 17 and 1.51m at end of June 18. Thats just MMX I know there are some partner stuff in there to add but just leaving it like that.

We had 5.6m in billings in 1H17 and the revenues as has historically been the case came mostly in 2H. I can't see that changing in 18. Obviously, management has been focusing on diversifying the revenue streams by geography, pricing and I'd guess that the purchase of ICM probably improves the timings of billings in the future.

I'd guess something like 7m in actual billings for MMX. I doubt the headline number will be that exciting, the consolidated accounts may be more exciting... could be 9-10m maybe higher.

On chinese shopping, someone posted here they were selling for USD300. Its over 600 names now in just over 2 weeks. Personally i'm pretty optimistic on that performance. I had previously suggested 200k names over time based of the english .shop, but that was when I thought it was low price high volume. The revenue numbers are likely following a similar path. It will be interesting to see if it has a slower growth decline rate than other gtlds.

atb

I agree, most retail investors whilst disappointed (myself included) with the share price performance likely support Toby.

If one looks at the share register, Guy Elliot (director), London and Capital (loan), Henry Turcan (director lombard/henderson), Stuart Lawley (new largest shareholder, and posted support here) - all definitely knew about the deal prior to completion and that is about 40-50% of the current share register. It is possible some of the other institutional share holders knew also. One would guess that as part of Hony's transaction there is likely something in the documentation that they had to be consulted on any new transactions given the restrictions that were put on their investment. Ok there might be some Chinese walls etc. especially with regard to Lombard...

But in either case, 40% would be a good guess of the current share holder base, that knew about the transaction prior to completion so supported the deal in some form and therefore Toby.

So assuming their support is a given, it is highly likely that Toby and the current team have well over 50% of the current share registers support.

Obviously that can change over time, but imho that isn't this year.

Where are sjlawleys posts? I was out all afternoon when i read them and now they seem like a mirage. Weird that they were removed. Personally I was appreciative of them. Dandee, I'd agree sentiment is extremely negative, as you say reflected in the share price. The question is how much more negative can it get, from these levels?

Agreed, thanks for sharing your contact with TH Sunday.

Well I guess that removes the uncertainty around whether it would complete given the share price performance. I guess that leads to two rays of hope for the share price. Firstly, the launch of .shopping chinese, which fwiw I'd expect initial numbers to be tame and secondly, the issuance of the half year results which will likely include consolidated accounts. This should show earnings with and without the ICM acquistion. Given the takeover is earnings accretive etc. etc. it should show a material improvement in 'current' and future earnings with the ICM takeover. gla

Those valuations were just for VIP. Assuming the company acquiring has no additional costs for running the names. Like someone like Verisign or CNIC. I used 20X as CNIC and Verisign have a PE way higher than that so the earnings and purchase price would be attractive to them at that level. I was trying to supply an answer to the question of how someone like ST could come up with a valuation like GBP47m for VIP - which was the original question. It wasn't a valuation for MMX. Clearly MMX has operational costs, so yes I agree the 'math' does not work like that for a valuation of the company. But the individual assets have the potential to be worth more to certain industry players. In addition, I agree as far as the 20X ratio for a valuation for MMX, that is in the realms of fantasy land as far as MMX is concerned (currently). It doesn't appear to be for CNIC which is a low margin business, in the same industry, same exchange etc. etc. which I have commented on in the past... trading at a current PE likely in the 30s. There is no rational explanation that I can come up with or have seen explaining the difference.

Bakky Verisign trades on a P/E of 36. CNIC trades on historical P/Es in the 50s but likely at a similar current P/E in the 30s. One could use 800k names * USD5/name * 20P/E = USD80m or GBP55-60m. There have been plenty of takeovers over the last 5 years done around the P/E 20 mark in the listed space. Vip currently has closer to 900k names and the P/E of 20 could be perceived as conservative. One could also use Verisgn Mkt Cap is 17.22b and domains under management are 148million. So each domain is worth USD116. Vip domains of 800k * USD116 = USD93m or about GBP70m. Ok ok .com and .net sell for more than .vip but vip supposedly has a higher growth rate and the current names are closer to 900k. One could also use a form of dividend discount model with a 800k *USD5 divided by a cost of capital to get you to a similar number as well. Just showing how one can get to those numbers. Clearly the AIM market doesn't value MMX or VIP by any of these methodologies, now or in the past.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/9554/silence-therapeutics-in-a-hot-space-with-few-competitors--9554.html

I agree with your points. I would just add that yes, although the companies are different, most investors do not even understand the differences between registry's and registrars. I used to know which was which, but i've been invested so long I have forgotten (lol). Both companies are trying to build sustainable quality recurring revenues by selling domains. CNIC state recurring revenues several times in their results. MMX have clearly focused on recurring revenues. They broadcasted loud and clear that recurring revenues are greater than ongoing expenses... sadly however, as far as the share price goes no one was listening. For the valuations to be so divergent is amazing. I wrote a similar post either 6 months or a year ago, and well... nothing has changed except two things... CNIC's share price is higher now and MMX's is lower. gla atb

CNIC results are out. CNIC shares are currently suspended because of a corporate action (reverse takeover). However, prior to suspension, they were trading at 57 pence on a historical P/E of 50ish. This is in line with where they traded have traded historically � for 2017 �Diluted earnings per share increased by over 6% to 1.04p (2016: 0.97p).�. Given the EPS over the past 18 months and share price performance, CNIC shares have also traded at a current P/E of between say 45 and 65 - ignoring the suspension, but at a minimum of 45. CNICs revenues increased in 2017 from GBP22m to GBP24m� I have bought this up before but� WOW just WOW. CNIC is following a growth strategy of buying companies with their high P/E. More power to them. Investors are rewarding CNIC with a P/E of 45 � for historical 10% EPS and revenue growth following that strategy. Again more power to them. Our historical P/E, using US0.55/share call it GBP0.4 /share, is about a P/E of 18. A reasonable assumption for next year would be for MMX earnings of US1 cent/share or about GBP0.7p/share � obviously, that is a P/E of 10 all else constant. Ignoring the obvious and already commented on blunder of our current management�s to infer we were being taken over, but now to be following a somewhat similar strategy (obviously we are using a lower p/e to buy a company)� the valuation discrepancies are eyepopping. Given we have the high margin business one would assume that we would have the 45 P/E. CNIC�s management has imo have done a fantastic job executing their strategy. Our current management has imo done a great job, excluding the handling of the review. Please excuse the somewhat confusing historical, current and forward P/Es - the point remains the same. I am in no way recommending CNIC just providing comparison to a company, - trading on the same exchange, same industry, similar market cap, similar-ish projected revenues and earnings, similar growth strategy etc. etc. gla

Hony Capital got into the share in late 2016 at 13p, I believe that is where one of your friends works from your previous posts. According to the director dealings you got out in 2015...

It was surprising a few years back, when he started posting here. Some questioned the legality of it. Now one knows for sure, that one can certainly question the morals of it. I can remember him talking it up a few years back, 40m in annual revenues, some posts here about Fred's valuations for the gTLDs, putting the values at X etc etc. All the while in the background dweill had been selling... went from a 20m shares down to his 'worthless' options today. (all from memory, excuse errors, the point is the same) It really is beyond belief behaviour from a director, advisor and or ex director, advisor of any company to be posting anything on any public forum without approval from the company. Dweill puts himself out there as the champion of the private investor, but it appears based of his history of actions here, that he is anything but.

You are right MacGaz, there isn't an "ing" in Chinese. So shop and shopping are the same thing in characters. The character before and or after decides which tense it is. I'm not sure why they list it in English as shopping but there must be a reason. The delay, being in the contention set with .shop was likely caused by the fact that it means shop or shopping in Chinese. Not that anyone would ever confuse the pronunciation of Chinese shopping with shop. That may be the reason they listed it as shopping, hoping to avoid the contention set... just a guess. The English .shop has 556k registrations currently, my guess is that 40% of that will likely want chinese .shopping. That is before selling to mainland China for 'new' business. One could complain about that type of "business" but likely amazon owns its name in pretty much every tld. I doubt they are paying extortionate prices, because of rules against cyber squatting or whatever... but they will be paying the standard fees at least, and that is the vast mjority of registered domains. As such I think the 556k registrations in .shop, pretty much guarantees a 200k and likely higher in Chinese shopping... it is the most populous country, probably has the most internet users etc. etc. One could easily come up with 90% of the 556k registrations wanting Chinese .shop for these reasons and for it not to sound outlandish. Obviously time will tell and we dont have to wait long. That's my proper sheet of paper guess for the first weeks/month registrations. imho, atb

10m for 2019, seems pretty reasonable though. Might even manage a million higher. Depends how well shopping does and whatever these 2nd half innovation projects are. A full US cent in earnings seems imminently achievable. Although i'm not an accountant, just back of the envelope looking at the ICM and numbers in the statement.

HI Rhambo, what's the significance of the 11th? I see from the update in March they expect to finalize the loan or not on the 17th and last year's results were the 18th. Apologies if I missed an RNS for the 11th. Atb