RE: been in here a while - feeling really good now17 Oct 2019 09:25
This is obviously a complete guess.
Arrowhead Pharma announced a US listing on 18 Jan 2018 stock price was USD5.72 at the close. On 22 Jan 18 USD60.4m was raised and the stock closed at USD6.39. Assuming the same amount of shares were on issue - I realize this is unlikely but ballpark - that comes out at USD600m or GBP500m in market cap at the time of their raise. That comes out at GBP640p-ish/share if converted to an SLN share price.
I would note that Arrowgrasss' share price went up on the announcement of their raise. It also went up leading up to the raise over a few months, possibly speculation on the raise helped this. I doubt that many UK small cap market companies do asset raises in the US. I would again, guess/common sense, assume that for it to be worthwhile to an investment bank to underwrite it, the market cap and raise would have to be high enough to justify it. So for me that points to around GBP400p/share (or greater) which gets closer to a market cap of USDD500m.
dyor - obviously conjecture on my part/a complete guess as above/take it as you will. I would once again though point to Arrowhead Pharma who have executed on doing exactly what I have outlined above. Same industry, had the same market cap, did a raise, basically the same company but 2 years ahead. The road map is there SLN just need to follow.
Also, Solomon in the recent proactive interview implied the listing was not imminent. Although they clearly gave themselves options for completing the listing. To me that says its happening mid next year.
Initially, I was pretty skeptical of the new CEO. In his first interview on proactive, I didn't think he did enough to promote the share. The recent director buys and news flow has shown that my initial view was incorrect. I think there is plenty of newsflow that Solomon can use to get interest around the stock.
My new timeline for news would be something like
This year
* Results of the quark research, which is well delayed.
* Phase1b trials starting for sln124.
* Possible another milestone payment from MNK
* Possible partner deal on another asset but possibly this Extra-hepatic thing
q1 20
* another r&d/marketing day - in preparation for listing.
q2 20
*another r&d/marketing day
* US listing (or in Q3)
2020 news
* Milestone payments from mnk
* Deal with this lp(a) "asset". Basically another mnk type deal. I'd guess this will be a big upfront payment.
* Naming of the two "Earlier stage, as yet undisclosed, proprietary programs"
* if not announced in 19, a collaboration deal on the Extra-hepatic delivery.
* Some of the other assets progress through the clinical stages
* Possible - Mnk takes up the options on the other two assets.
* Takeover of SLN at anytime by a large cap pharma or other RNA company.
FWIW, the recent director buys and Quested's increase in holding have also assuaged my concerns re: Mallinkrodt/opoid settlement and its affect on the collaboration deal with S
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