Member Info for Rykan

It has been long and painful for me that is for sure. When the announcement came out I felt relief not excitement.

I would of definitely have preferred an all cash exit.

In saying that for me, the deal is done. They have 64% approval already, likely 65% today with the TR1.

Post the deal and using some of the numbers bandied about there...

If 6.5p is distributed that leaves 2.3p in a cash box. Today one is paying call it 7.4p for a share, or say 0.9p for the 2.3p in the cash box. 60% discount for cash seems a bit steep for me.

I haven’t posted here in a while... but it looks like the new CEO and company is still ticking of the to do list. Quite a few things on the old list are now completed. The new guy in charge with this asset raise, has plenty of levers to pull imho. Likely he will push the GOLD platform and accelerate proprietary assets and SLN124/360 - but equally could announce a deal with takeda in coming weeks/months. Plenty of news items he can create to keep the shares here bid. Despite the covid interruption amazingly this company has barely missed a beat following the ARWR playbook. I expect the new CEO to continue that effort - the current asset raise reinforces my belief in the new CEO and the company.

My list looks something like - input always welcome

* Quark results as always delayed... Q1
* Takeda transition to an actual deal Q2
* Sln124 results Q2
* SLN124/360 results 2H
* Announce other proprietary assets Q2
* possibly another pay to play deal like Takeda 2H

* Probably a collaboration deal with E-Therapeutics 2H 21
* Results of Novartis Inclisran Phase 3 data 21
* Possible takeover of ARWR at a premium. 21
* MNK making another milestone payment 21
* Deal for SLN360 22

* List in the US Sep DONE
* New CEO end of Q3v DONE
* File IND for SLN360 Q4 DONE
* Strategic biotech investors DONE
*Mnk bankruptcy DONE
* MNK executing other options on 2 complement assets DONE

YHAL, what I am hearing is it is being run like a bucket of cr p. Something we all knew already.

SJL's guy/the new CEO didn't tell us formally about the potential liability. Personally I think that is a drop in the ocean versus the mis deeds of the multitude of former geniuses we have had here. I prefer to give the guy to the end of 2021, before casting him out... yeah yeah trust, confidence blah blah... personally mine could not get any lower. The new CEO has a low bar to jump over.

By whatever metric one wants to choose, this is cheap. End of.

YHL, discount to value for additional risk... the entire thing ex ICM is already priced at near zero... so discounted further... ? Seems unrealistic to me, bwtfdik. Not sure it can be discounted any more. Yes I know the shares can go lower... but again I am guessing not for long.

Market cap here is now approx GBP38m. Cash is USD9m. Didnt we pay SJL USD41m for ICM?

Appears to me that the entire business ex the ICM portfolio is now being valued around zero.

Given the long suffering private investors i'm not surprised by this. I doubt however in the current low interest ienvironment despite the negative sentiment that continues here, that the current low valuation will last long.

I would think now more than ever the company will be taken over by the end of 21. SJL's man is going to do what SJL has outlined on here numerous times. Pull off the scabs and streamline the business. I personally doubt there are any more scabs that everyone hasn't gone over already... The valuation of about zero for the rest of the business ex ICM is proof enough of that for me.

I would think the institutional holders have probably had updates as they have probably asked to and talked to TF. I'm sure he has given them as much comfort as he can within what he is allowed to say.

I would think on the trading update that TF would probably deliver it the same time as the rest of them... at the end of the month. I don't see why he would rush it out and potentially have something wrong in it. That is unless people want a few brush strokes that don't say anything.

Given how much negativity there is in this share, from my self as well... And stories from ghosts from directors and owners past... It would be pretty easy to meet already rock bottom expectations.

It reminds me of that movie 8 mile where eminem has a rap battle and basically says how terrible his life is. All these ex directors and owners spilling beans... Not sure after 10 years of owning this how I could be anymore negatively surprised.

I think it was Sunday, possibly someone else who wrote some post the other day on the london contract... Sadly for myself I skimmed it... But just thought... Meh, shocking... As expected then.

SJL - It is a pity your analysis of MMX a few years back was not as acute as it appears to be today. Could of saved yourself and all of us a lot of hassle.

You would of sold to another party for all cash, for more or less...

Us private investors would of hopefully have been sold and not had to endure the drop in share price that buying ICM afforded the MMX shareholders.

Must be invigorating for you to finally be able to see all this stuff in the clear light of day.... after it is all out in an RNS.

I'm not intending any offence, but after the RNS came out... London, partner payments, work, vip, chinese debt... most assumed some of this already. I still don't get how one of the most experienced domain name investors didn't see it before hand. I like many here took some comfort in your share holding here and previous postings pre your sale of MMX.

Now... it appears your aim is to lower the value of MMX shares for the already long suffering private MMX shareholders.

SJL, My 10+ years of being an investor here... For me 1cent sales, free sales, offers etc seem to have and still are part of the "normal" sale process across the industry. Plenty here called them fake etc at the time

I knew mmx were involved in free, 1 cent or giveaway registrations all through vip, work whatever... Not sure anyone here did not know it... How is that duping anyone when it's ride across the industry?

SJL, how could someone like yourself, exceedingly successful in the domain business, access to multiples of the amount of due diligence on mmx and huge relevant experience than the vast majority of us here... Be hoodwinked for so long on such a grand scale? Toby and Michael just aren't that good.

With other offers for more than the mmx offer... It seems a pretty glaring error of a business decision... Like one where you would sack yourself for.

Apologies if offensive, not intended.

Thankfully I sold half of mine when toby and Michael facilitated part of your exit by using the companies buyback program. That is my memory of it anyway, apologies if wrong. I thought at the time and still do that was a poor corporate governance decision from the board. It prioritized part of your exit ahead of supporting the share price for remaining investors. I am still wearing a hefty loss on this on something supposed low risk...

ETX announced a deal with Galapagos.

Ali talks through that here - but also talks a bit about RNAi from 3,35 to 5. Deal here a strong possibility.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/921575/e-therapeutics-plc-s-ali-mortazavi-welcomes-new-fibrosis-collaboration-with-galapagos-921575.html

gla

I haven't been able to post for a while. Lockdown has not been kind to my spare time.

ETX expanding into RNAi. Chairman there is Ali Mortazavi the ex SLN CEO/ Shareholder here and therr..

ETX-SLN tie deal/collaboration could be a possibility.

Plenty of good news to come here NASDAQ listing and filing on sln360 IND in 2H.

Gla

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ETX/expansion-into-rnai-and-creation-of-sab-ksfe7bkp9kee828.html

Maybe I'm too optimistic after years of waiting... But the mid price ticking up seems at odds with the theory that SJL is bailing.

Is it possible that it's for example London and capital selling - possibly redemptions or something? Strategic buyer?

Redno

Im involved in SLN and ETX. I have owned sln for a while. I happened to buy etx a few months ago and added some more on my first post here a couple of weeks back.

The ownership structure and past present management have a lot of overlap. I would expect corporate actions to occur here overtime. It has occurred at sln. It's the same owners and managers... And they have said... Corporate actions/deals are coming. I don't see any reason not to believe them. I doubt this opinion is new news to anyone here. Just posting here as you asked on SLN.

Quested taking a position, just adds/confirms the view that deals are coming... It's just when.

Obviously this is biotech as with SLN, so it can be volatile. This has had the added covid boost which could lead to upside or possibly downside in the coming weeks. Long term though I am a holder of sln and etx until they get sold or taken over.

Gla

Results are out Got. It is a good read.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/silence-therapeutics/rns/final-results-year-ended-31-december-2019/202004140700094723J/

Got

Looks like once again i'm not going to be able to add anything to your ruminations, as I agree - strange goings on. The recent fall back to me, maybe self justification, but looks like private investors taking profit on one of the few shares they have made some money on. Today's rise... who knows, maybe some snap back... total volume looks pretty low for the past week with most participants probably on the sidelines or sidelined. I agree I thought it would be a catalyst as well, again just repeating you...

In any case, for me, the AZ deal is way bigger and better than the MNK deal and the share price is now up approximately the same amount as the cash that went in to SLN for the AZ deal. Suffice to say, I think the shares are mispriced and should be higher. Volume after the MNK deal was way bigger as well looking at my chart... but I guess that is the strange times we live in.

In any case as we know this is biotech which is volatile... and we are in volatile times. Personally i'm keeping this for the long haul because of all the points I have posted previously. I'm looking forward to the CEO being announced, in 2 months or within this quarter, as it appears to me that these biotech CEOs do a fair bit of marketing.

Gla

Edison is a good read for what's going on. But their valuation methodology isn't forward looking. One only needs to compare their last report to this one. No value for any future deals... and that is one of the main reasons to invest.

In addition, as an example it's very certain that the IND for SLN360 will be filed at the end of the year, which will move sln360 to phase 1 and a 15% probability of sucess. That will add 167m in value on their model. Given its likelihood... The market ain't going to wait to price that.

But who am I to criticize their valuation. If this follows the same path that ARWR and Dicerna have laid out it is reasonable to assume 8-12 end of the year imho. With a few adjustments to the Edison model with what one expects to happen... One can get to those numbers.

Gla dyor

Ursa, buyout

I'm not going to go look at the annual reports but of the top of my head the net profit numbers would have premium sales, china bad debt write offs, auction income that distort the numbers.

Management have said repeatedly they are going for stable recurring revenues. They would suggest looking at those numbers and comparing. That's what they believe will create takeover value imho.

Gla

Wow what a deal.

Hope everyone is doing fine in lockdown. I did not even know about this deal until last night. Looks like things at silence are carrying on to plan. Which is astoundingly good news.

Personally I would consider this the extra-hepatic deal (being outside the liver), but no mind if others feel differently. It's a big deal and likely/possibly the only deal of this magnitude this year in RNAi given the others dance cards are full.

Cash is not a problem at silence, must be around USD110m(sorry lockdown/kids time constraints to check exact number). That gives the market in current conditions a big vote of confidence. No way can anyone imply that the platform isn't validated with multiple partners now. Still plenty to look forward to:

* New CEO end of Q2
* List in the US 2H
* File this IND for SLN360 2H
* Deal for SLN360 Q4/Q1 21
* Quark results as always delayed... Maybe Q4 now but possibly earlier
* MNK making another milestone payment
* MNK executing other options on 2 assets
* Announce other proprietary assets 2H
* Takeda transition to an actual deal
* possibly another pay to play deal like Takeda
* Sln124 now 21

As always this getting taken over is always a possibility. The value created yesterday imho isn't reflected in the share price because of current market conditions. As the flu passes this will grind higher I think, but possibly jump as it has done before.

In 1-2 years the PowerPoint presentation for SLN will have about 15 targets on it... At that stage the presentation is going to look very similar to... ARWR/Dicerna. The value inflection point has been reached but is not yet reflected in the current share price. Dyor, place your own bets. This one is a keeper, with that cash in the bank and the brightening outlook for drug R&D... It's not one to lose sleep over.

Well done all that managed to keep some of this in the current market turmoil. Last few weeks have been brutal.

Gla

If they announce a partner or partners in the coming weeks this will go into the stratosphere.

It looks to me like that is only a matter of time.

If they manage to prove a drug combo faster all the better for society and the business case.

The backdrop of drug development short, medium and long term is only improving and this company can benefit from that.

Apologies if others have posted the same thoughts. If so I agree.

And results are out