Member Info for Rykan

Hi ldcms

Like you I've been in here and suffered a while. Got in on the binary legal case, deliberated afterwards and by that stage it was all over. Very happy with the rebound (clearly).

I'd just repeat my potential catalysts which I believe will all happen this year. I have added a few based of the rnd day.
This year
* The r&d day - widening investor base.
* Potential USA listing - possibly linked to the above.
* Results of the quark research, which is well delayed.
* Phase1b trials starting for sln124.

Possibly this year but likely next
* A milestone payment from mnk
* Deal with this lp(a) "asset". Basically another mnk type deal. I'd guess this will be a big upfront payment.
* Naming of the two "Earlier stage, as yet undisclosed, proprietary programs"
* A collaboration deal on the Extra-hepatic delivery (who knew about that, prior to end day).

Possible next year
Mnk takes up the options on the other two assets.

Defn next year
Some of the other assets progress through the clinical stages

I look at arrowhead pharma, basically same company 2 years ago, same field etc. SLN/Avi M even bought some shares in it. Now has usd3b market cap.

List in the US, announce a deal with LP(a) or one of these other things. I don't see why the market cap here shouldn't be a usd1b.

I am no biotech expert. First company like this I've ever invested in and obviously biotech is inherently risky. As I've been in this for 2 years starting to understand a little. Obviously I'm optimistic.

GL and ATB.

Not wanting to repeat what everyone else has said but I will.

Like everyone else, and I am with the much maligned long term investors, I'm extremely ****ed off with the share price going down after the buy back was announced... On low volume... Like wtf.

I previously said I thought the buyback would be announced to defend the share price going down on low volume... It appears my common sense premise was a step to far.

We are at the point... Again on signalling the companies long term intentions at the interim statement. Personally I prefer a statement with dividend plus an 80%+ payout ratio going forward. Might be optimistic but... I've been disappointed for so long it would be nice to see something that rewarded long term investors.

Yesterday's presentation is here https://www.silence-therapeutics.com/media/1968/sln_rd-day_2019-slides.pdf

It's big slide deck.

Of note to me is the outlook on slide 133, early stage as yet undisclosed programs and numerous collaborations being explored - key priority. Slide 12 has development pipeline, slide 24 has expected newsflow and company milestones, it doesn't appear to have the undisclosed programs in here but I'm sure they will be announced prior to the end of 2020.
Possible US listing and takeover always a possibility.

This is slide 133 outlook
"SLN124
> SLN124 Phase Ib commences soon with interim results for the Part A (Single Ascending Dose)
expected in 2020
> Phase Ib trial is expected to fully readout in H2 2021
SLN360
> IND and/or CTA expected to be filed in H2 2020
> Phase I trial to start shortly thereafter and funding this program is a key priority for us
SLN500
> Fully funded (directly or through milestones) by Mallinckrodt. IND and/or CTA targeted in H1 2021
Earlier stage, as yet undisclosed, proprietary programs
> At least two Discovery programs ready to enter IND-enabling studies during 2020
Extra-hepatic delivery
> Numerous collaborations being explored. This is a key priority"

Potential positive catalysts I can think of

The r&d day - widening investor base.
Potential USA listing - possibly linked to the above.
Deal with this lp(a) "asset". Basically another mnk type deal.
Results of the quark research, which is well delayed.
Phase1b trials starting for sln124.

As always, takeover, this is too cheap compared to comparable US companies imho. I would assume plenty of large pharma companies like to buy this type of company, new medical industry currently being "proved".

Transcript from yesterday's MNK presentation. Well worth a read in my opinion. SLN has a brief mention

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4289885-mallinckrodt-plcs-mnk-presents-wells-fargo-securities-2019-healthcare-conference-transcript

From the RNS on 26 July

1) the board have obfuscated themselves of responsibility
2) there is no reason fincrap cant buy today.
3) they would be reporting asap if they were buying.

1) "The Buyback Programme will be independently managed by finnCap Ltd, the Company's broker, which will make trading decisions independently and without the influence of the Company. "

2) "The Buyback Programme will be effected in accordance with the Authority in that the maximum price paid per Ordinary Share is to be no more than 105 per cent. of the average middle market closing price of an Ordinary Share for the five business days preceding the date of purchase. "

3) "Any Ordinary Shares acquired as a result of the Buyback Programme will be announced to the market without delay."

My opinion the board did a **** job in obfuscating responsibility - should of set a target volume to be purchased and under a price. Fincrap are terrible.

The buyback (if you can call it that) only lasts until 25th of September.

I think/hope on that date or on the release date of the interims (about then) raise guidance and announce a dividend. By then presales of this adultblock would be known (as per sjl), the performance of the overall portfolio has been good and the lack of spend on the buyback means the company should finally deliver a dividend.

The only slight negative (as sjl has pointed out), is that the overall portfolio ex VIP, work and London is flat for the year.

gla

If you sell a domain for 120/year on 1 Sep, 40 is recognised in this year's annual account and 80 for next year. This is just recognising the annual registration fee per number of months in the period in question.

This then gets broken out into these other terms like billings, cash generation and deferred revenue...

I would think the adult block would accelerate the timeline of any suitor. Why wait for the adult block to start selling when you can buy the current business on the cheap and get the adult block for free?

Adult block is probably going to make 2-4m (just a guess), imho it guarantees that the company will have to raise guidance, and it will add 30-60m to the sale price of the company.

Fantastic revenue opportunity. Verifies the numbers sjl was suggesting.

Yeah agreed and this year's upcoming deletes are larger than last year's... Just like next year's will be larger than this year's... Because the total number is increasing.

Next year - given what appears to be a big sales push in vip this year - will be when the upcoming deletes for VIP matter. This is because 1st year registrations have higher drop rates than the 2nd 3rd year etc. So next year might actually drop registrations by more than we would like or what was seasonally expected.

Obviously for this year we will have to wait and see, but to me this isn't a problem until verifiable evidence suggests otherwise. To be clear I fully expect the VIP numbers to drop because of the upcoming deletes. The only current verifiable info, is all time high vip names and all time high total names.

I'd prefer to hear it from the company was well.

The websites that produce those numbers are pretty good in my opinon. Yeah they might have some rounding errors or timing errors between them, but they are, I believe querying the icann master file daily. I personally don't see any problem with the numbers. If they were that bad people in the industry and here would not be loolking at them constantly.

VIP is at all time highs 'today' as evidenced by those websites. I don't think anyone seriously believes that is not the case. Yes I know upcoming deletes are high, but that is an ongoing day in day out ocurrence, yes I know higher than normal this time of year etc.

The point remains the same, the available evidence suggests renewals were not ****. Either that or VIP is selling like hotcakes.

VIP is now at 1.037 million names.

Available evidence suggests renewals were not sh*t.

Technically, this closed above last week's intraday highs, closed close to the high, still above average volume. Looks like blue sky to 2 quid. Could get there rapidly.

This is a pretty bullish interview.

The deal is usd20m +10m research funding +5m in equity. Initially most here and elsewhere reported on the usd20m +5m equity.

The sales and development payments of circa 2bn PLUS royalty payments in the teens. Initially most here and elsewhere concentrated on the 2bn potential payments.

He also highlights that this is related to these assets only. The LP(a) thing to me sounded more expensive but wtfdik.

Personally as there are no comparables in the UK market, I don't think this is getting valued correctly. I think there is more to come from the management.

Arwr arrowhead pharma had a similar deal with Johnson and johnson. Is a competitor listed in the US. SLN had some ownership history with them. Their share price has gone from circa 5bucks to nearly 30 during SLN involvement and their deal with jnj. It shows the pathway and potential for this deal.

I think we are at 3 pounds or higher sometime this year, and likely higher than 5 at some stage next year. Pretty optimistic guesses I know... Could prove conservative. Happy to hear criticism.

I bought here a couple of years ago on the court case. I then doubled down when Avi M bought more just over a pound. I'm about break even now, and it's been a torturous journey.

I am no biotech investing expert. The current enterprise value I guess at gbp100m less say gbp40m (post deal) in cash giving gbp60m. Prior to this deal it was approx gbp60m less gbp20m leaving gbp40m.

Seems to me the present value of potential usd2b in payments should be worth more than a gbp20m increase in EV. Even under the most pessimistic scenarios and high discount rates. I would guess gbp100m... But again I'm not a biotech expert.

If this lists on the Nasdaq (long talked about by previous management) I expect it to double for starters just on the above and comparables. low float could continue the ride a lot higher.

Numbers above are just guesses for cash, excuse typos

Good thoughts,

For what its worth I don't think they do the tender offer. I think they do it in the market as that is where the value is.

Not that they will say it, but I believe they are simply trying to arrest the share price decline on low volume.

Again I don't think they will say it, but if the metrics they bought ICM at in the off market transaction equate to a share price for the entirety of MMX of say 5.7p - I think they buy all day at that price. That is an easy to justify measurement of value for the listed MMX. I haven't tried to work out what the "5.7p" is based of the info that is out there, that is purely a guess for the example. I think the arresting of the share price decline on low volume is their primary aim and their measurement of value can be justified plenty of ways not just at what I am guessing above , so they can buy at any price really. Just my 2 cents.

Tap, agreed, i'm thinking 20-21m revenues for 19 - now that the adult block service has been announced that imo was not considered by retail investors at the beginning of 19 and previous.

Agreed Sundaysun.

I think they will still introduce a dividend in September. I can see the argument that after the settlement of this onerous contract that the cash levels may not be there. However I believe they will be, as the directors will continue to sing about 'realized' - "stronger operating cashflow and greater visibility", in 2H. They will also (likely) get some upside from the blocking service in 2H.

I also think this buyback, if it gets used, is because the institutional holders are ****ed off at the share price declining on close to no volume. A million could last 6 months (I haven't checked) or longer of the "normal" average daily volume. That is just my conspiracy theory, for what its worth.

Thanks MacGaz, I thought that was how it worked. As I'm not an accountant good to see others believe that is the way it works.

Mickster, where have you come up with the 16m?

That is 2-4m lower (18-20m) than the number that most here believe or the number that fincrapp (18.6m) put out in their report.

So I would not think that is market expectations, unless you have that number from somewhere else?