Member Info for RunS4

And the useless Glow from planet Acki shows up with his pearls of wisdom. ROFL...

MildLaddie and NoClue lse2000 won't be too far behind I suspect!!

I harken back to this release in July last year when Dentsu won the Integrated Media mandate for BMW and I asked and got a response back from S4 IR that we don't do Media for BMW and our business was continuing. Maybe not quite the case then, but on the flip side we do have GM doing some of the heavy lifting for us. ;-)

https://lbbonline.com/news/Dentsu-Wins-Integrated-Media-Mandate-for-BMW-Group

@Auson - can you please shed some light on the BMW scope reduction and is that what drove that big net revenue reduction in EMEA in Q1?

Hello @NigeCo - I missed this one as I have been in back to back calls since 08:30 today, but other than SMS saying that we'd be net debt free by end of 2027, which for me is a GIVEN :-), is there anything more that he said on the call about business trends, etc?

Thanks

I'm sure that it will be put up on the website tomorrow..

Msn - I think I can read the London stock Exchange (Let's call it a market) quite well and you take that Growth metric out of the equation for even one quarter, then reality smacks you in the face.

Did I expect this reaction today? Yes, I did and it was only too obvious for me. Was it warranted - NO. But it still does it anyway. And this is why I'm wary about big target price pumps on this board. It suckers in a lot of 'followers' and let's face it, who wants to lose money, even if on paper.

S4 will do just fine when you look past the near term turmoil after today's update. SickNote timed it way better than I did, even though I did sell a small chunk. But just as I consistently said it should've never gotten into the teens/low 20s and stay there for a long time, I also say that people should stop throwing wild pumping rumours including outlandish targets or buyout BS, until you actually see growth.

That day wasn't the FY 2025 update in March nor was it today. The day will come, but until then I suspect we'll be range bound. I hope the 30p floor (in my head) holds!!

GLA!!

That's a sensible post, A_T_G. At 40p, we're at a 5.5% yield for 2027 and we're probably in the 30p to the 50p range for the near future until revenue growth is back on the agenda!!!

I did say not to buy the hype around the WPP bid BS or the 200p targets - All are BS pumps and will stay like that, until growth is back on the agenda.

Of course it would, net debt always goes up in Q1 and that's not a surprise and is as predictable as the pumping posts on here when the price is rising or vice versa when you see a down-leg!!

LOL...

As Munger pointed out, we're now down to 6200 employees - I hope the cuts were in high-cost Europe to align with the drop-off in revenues!!

I like this bit in the report - "We are seeing significant opportunities for new business, particularly driven by our AI tools and capability. This is particularly so in the Automotive sector, where we have recently won assignments from major manufacturers in Japan, South Korea, China and India as the category establishes itself as an early adopter of AI at scale, in reaction to the existential pressure from Chinese EV's and AV's. We see similar opportunities in Financial Services where we have seen an uptick in pipeline and wins as Financial Institutions move beyond pilots and concerns around AI governance to full scale adoption, again reflecting an existential threat, this time from new fin-tech platforms. In FMCG we continue to build on the traction of winning "Real-Time Brands" and "Orchestration Partner" engagements with two leading US-based Global clients in 2025, one of these client relationships has expanded internationally and we are engaged in several scaled pitches in this category."

With the usual caveat over the size/scale of the wins in the Auto sector and the fact that a ramp to revenues from a win stage takes a little while, the revenue uptick from these could be a late H2/early H1 2027 theme.

We'll see an interim dividend for 2026 H1, likely announced in September and paid in January 27, and a similar final dividend number in March 27. I'll see pronounced weakness as a buyback opp and look to add more over time.

I'll start with the negatives and get those out of the way. No growth yet, but financial metrics are improving. Europe is a basket case with a circa 25% YOY net revs reduction. Reported revenues are down 9% and Europe down 25% and US down circa 5.5%. Tech services are still dropping hard and that's a head-scratcher.

On the upside, they're still expecting revenues to be down a small % by end of year meaning an improvement in the coming quarters - would I count on it, not necessarily? 1.1p dividend is now interim and if all going well, they'll recommend another 1.1p final dividend. Repaid €85m debt to cut interest and that's great.

Until growth is back on the agenda, we need to continue to exceute on cost cuts - I'll need to check the report for indications of this. Overall, I expect a down-day, which is about the only thing you can expect on our wonderful market where revenue growth is the only metric that matters to pull the price higher. ;-)

Good luck, Sickie. Profit taking is money banked, even though the longer term trend may potentially go against that trade - who knows what may happen though in the near term!!

I have the opposite positioning as you as in had over 3m shares as peak holdings (wasn't a single share holding but greater than 50% of portfolio value and so was very exposed too), sold a bit and now holding circa 2.6m - and will let that run as we are, IMO, on the cusp of a turnaround and that usually bodes well for a longer term returns viewpoint. And we have the management firepower and gravitas to back that up.

There will no doubt be bumps along the way and that's very predictable, but I'm waiting to see what tomorrow's update brings. Green shoots will be massively welcomed. GLA...

@Verney - If it was a greater than 50% owned by S4, yes accounts can be directly consolidated into the P&L and Balance sheet line items. However, 50% or less - only the net income is shown as a single line in the P&L based on the equity method (% of equity held) along with another line in the balance sheet.

You could argue that the ultimate accounting profit of the JV is still being reflected in S4's financial statements to the extent of our holding and that is ultimately correct. Maybe I muddied the waters a bit by talking about consolidation of accounts when we're not the controlling owner - didn't mean to confuse the issue and I ended up doing it. :-)

My tuppence on this, Verney. I don't think it will mean much for us financially in 2026 as from memory, this is an Equal stake JV (50% owned by us) and as such can't be consolidated into our P&L. To me this is more a visibility thing to the broader market that SMS has pushed and that's a good thing to do. He's been hyper active on the speaking circuit from late last year and he's probably seeing what some of the AI led tech consulting sector firms are seeing - Green shoots.

We just got to see how the Ad services market is taking up our services this year and whether S4's guide for Q1 decline will not occur and if actually see a small growth. That'll be a fantastic outcome and possibly what the market is slowly factoring in/discounting over the past few days. Fingers crossed.

Whatever floats your boat, Sharefall. I'm not here to placate egos and cheer on wild, baseless pumping. I'll call it as I see it and so should others!!

I hold circa 0.4% of S4's equity and whilst that doesn't give an additional right to call BS on here, I like to stay grounded and focus on facts rather than cheering on rumours or trading pumps like yesterday and misleading others. If you don't like it, please feel to filter me.

Don't disagree with that Brick.. An Acquisition is only in the minds of short term price pumpers and gaslighters on here!! That's firmly my opinion. And that too by WPP!! ROFL..

I think they're being very conservative with their guide both on revenues as well as margins, but until the revenue metric turns around and with that the SP is on a sustainable rise above 50p, this takeover interest rumour pumping is all that the traders on here have in their push to get this above 50p. A technology benchmark company that I have a management track had the first quarterly growth in many years in Q1 in the US and are tracking for good growth in Q2 as well. That honestly has me chuffed, not the pumper rumours on here. Sort revenue growth, sort margins and the SP will break out into multi-year highs, well since the end of 2023 anyway.

And with the financials de-risked and if the AI led innovations are adapted at scale by CMOs, that's when we could see a break above 100p. We're a long way from there!!! That's the realist in me.

"he said between 10X to 20X EBITDA, minus Net Debt. I don't see anyone willing to pay this valuation at this moment in time."

"So what does that equate to in share price?"

10x is approx. 130p and 20x is 260p.

"He wont sell to WPP. The hatred been the two companies is a industry legend."

It can be much more mundane than this. :-) WPP is no position to make another acquisition when they're in trouble with core financial metrics and the market has them 'marked' for near term struggle. And the pumpers on here actually think that they're going to make a large scale acquisition at this juncture with plenty of integration risk?

God, I hope their investment instincts are half better than the nonsense that they spout on here!!

ROFL...WPP buying S4. Get real chaps, these kind of 'rumours' are just pumpers trying to get poor traders to jump in and I give no credence to these rumours. And I suppose that's all it takes on these boards to get people riled up and pile in when they don't want to.

Admittedly we're WPP's wet dream from a tech/platform capability viewpoint but they're in deep shiite with huge debt,falling revenues, falling margins, and you guys really have to throw WPP into the acquisition mix? Crikey!!

Pump better.

What's even more egregious was that even at the beginning of March, after a brief run-up to 30p after the late January update and guide on FCF/net debt being below £100m, the shiite LSE market was still valuing us at £130m. Try that for a rational valuation mechanism!!!

Even if sustained FCF is circa 10% of revenues at say £60 - £65m, we should be double the current valuation and thats assuming no growth!!! To say we're still undervalued isn't a stretch.

In the meantime, our whopper is still firing on all cylinders!! Come on GM - spend more on us to get you more growth!! :-)

https://x.com/LiveSquawk/status/2049076533445181676

You can only reasonable assume that poor ManU sold in the low 30s as he thought it had run up too much and was due to fall (like it did in January) and of course, much to his chagrin, is holding steady around the 40p mark. Woe be to the sellers that can't see we've more than doubled in just over a month and then holding firm too. :-) But then you can't keep everyone happy all the time.