RE: jonse5 Oct 2013 12:32
Hi Seatrout, how are you? Well I hope.
You ask Jonse why we doesn't average down in PAR to some how claw back his NVTA losses (btw I'm in the same boat as Jonse and am 95% down). Can I comment on that since Jonse and I have our wounds in common?
I would look at it another way - if I have say XXXX money to invest I would put it on a company that is most likely to make me a profit regardless of whether I owned it already.
I mean, if you gamble on a horse and it's 10 lengths off the back with a furlong to go, you don't put more money on that horse do you? You put money on the horse that's most likely to win. You switch horses mid race, which is exactly what the stock market allows you to do - re-place your bets anytime. Keep putting money on a losing horse?
I will not "average down" here, when I can put money onto a horse that's more likely to do well for me.
Surely the only time to average down is if you genuinely believe that the gap between the sp and the real value of the company has widened. NOT because the sp is cheaper (which is a lot of PIs criteria). Normally sp's go down for a reason.
All investment decisions need to be seen as completely unique events, starting with a clean sheet.
Guilty me - I "fell in love" with Angel Mioning and my loyalty there cost me a lesson which is this "loyalty and affection get you nowhere" on the markets.
I am worried that you Seatrout actually like Paragon but it's a trap that I will try to never fall into again. I can feel it happening with NRRP and I need to snap out of it :-)
Signed,
Warren Numpty
PS, despite NVTA and ANGM, I have made some money but like the posters here say it's a gamble and we are all going to lose sometimes. And I'm sorry if this post has a lecturing tone - believe me, it as as much a "NOTE TO SELF" as anything else.