Member Info for rumpelstielzchen

South Sudan needs revenues now more than ever after Trump cutting aid. The aid was about 15% of GDP [or 5% when using GDP PPP]... and SS not exactly cash rich to start with. Hopefully that incentivises local stakeholders/parties back to the negotiating table (pipleine restart / NILPET asset) ...

US 2023 aid to SS: $790mm disbursement ( https://foreignassistance.gov/ )

SS GDP $5.3bn [$15.3bn PPP] ( https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/SSD )

A South Sudanese opposition leader has condemned an agreement between the government and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that would allow the Gulf state to buy crude oil from the East African country at lower rates for the next 20 years, terming it "illicit and illegal", the privately-owned Sudans Post website reported on 4 February.

"The leader of South Sudan's opposition Patriots' Resistance Movement (PRM), Gen Laraka Machar Turoal, has condemned what he described as an 'illicit and illegal' agreement between the government of South Sudan and the UAE involving a 20-year presale of the country's oil in exchange for a $12bn loan," the website said.

According to the website, the PRM leader accused the government "of prioritizing its political survival at the expense of the nation's economic future, warning that the deal would mortgage South Sudan's oil resources for generations."

The reported signing of the oil deal came as President Salva Kiir continued a three-day official visit to the UAE to discuss investment with the Gulf country's officials.

Source: Sudans Post, Juba, in English, 4 Feb 25

Estimates are 116k b/d production in Jan, up from 58k b/d in Dec. Not sure if the pipeline us up-and-running as the Jan cargo has been all Nile Blend while the pipeline would transport Dar Blend.

Reminder, as part of the current OPEC+ agreement, South Sudan’s production target is fixed at 124k b/d until the end of 2026. Sudan's is fixed at 64k b/d.

Grand ambitions!

” So, in Nigeria, what we need is to invest in gas infrastructure to evacuate gas. And our study shows that we need an initial investment of $20 billion annually for 10 years to be able to generate the kind of gas infrastructure required to provide gas for the whole of Africa and beyond.

“This of course , will require construction of gas pipelines along and across, West African sub-region, and beyond which is a huge expenditure”, he said

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2025/02/04/neiti-nigeria-needs-20-billion-annually-to-boost-gas-infrastructure/

The South Sudanese government and an armed faction of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO) signed a peace agreement in Port Sudan on 3 February, the privately-owned Sudans Post website reported on 4 February.

"These talks, between the delegation of the government of the Republic of South Sudan, led by Gen Akech Tong Aleu, director general of the Internal Security Bureau, and Gen Simon Gatwech Dual, were conducted under the auspices of the Sudanese government and culminated in a final peace agreement that brings an end to a long period of conflict," it quoted a statement by the Sudanese government as saying.

"The agreement follows two rounds of negotiations held in Port Sudan," it added.

It further added that Gatwech's SPLM-IO Kitgwang faction also confirmed the agreement. However, there was no official comment from the South Sudanese government.

The deal, which follows years of sporadic clashes between government troops and Gatwech's forces in northern South Sudan, is expected to lead to the demobilisation of the rebel faction's fighters and their integration into the national army.

Source: Sudans Post, Juba, 4 Feb 25

South Sudan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have signed a deal worth $12 billion that would allow Abu Dhabi to buy crude oil from the Eastern African nation for the next 20 years, Sudan's privately owned al-Rakoba website reported on 3 February.

"The deal, worth $12 billion, includes the UAE buying 600,000 barrels per day at $54 per barrel for Nile Blend and $22 [per barrel] for Dar Mix," al-Rakoba said.

It came as President Salva Kiir visited the UAE for a three-day official visit starting 2 February to expedite previous partnerships and projects. 

The UAE will also help build a new pipeline and refinery, boosting South Sudan's oil infrastructure, the report said.

South Sudan has in recent years ramped up efforts to consolidate relations with Emirati ventures keen on investing in agricultural, mining and health sectors.

Source: Alrakoba.net, Khartoum, in Arabic 3 Feb 25

Over 30 South Sudanese hotels sue government officials in regional court for nonpayment of $60mm

Lawyers representing over 30 hotels in South Sudan have sued the government in the East African Court of Justice for what they call unpaid hotel and accommodation services rendered to officials and are seeking over $60 million in punitive and general damages. South Sudan Justice Minister Ruben Madol Arol refused to comment. Wani Santino Jada, lead counsel for the plaintiffs, tells VOA’s James Butty that failure to pay for services violates key principles of the East African Community.

https://www.voaafrica.com/a/over-30-south-sudanese-hotels-sue-government-officials-in-regional-court-for-nonpayment/7925499.html

https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/africa/32-hotels-sue-south-sudan-at-regional-court-over-60mln-unpaid-bills-e7us7y0t

Nigeria’s oil and gas industry witnessed a flurry of business deals such as partnerships, acquisitions, and divestments in 2024.

In the upstream sector, the year saw international oil giants like Shell and TotalEnergies relinquish their assets to local players like Seplat Energy and Oando PLC.

We also saw ambitious acquisitions and partnership deals involving IOCs and indigenous oil companies.

While divestments and exits were witnessed mostly in onshore operations, more investments by IOCs were observed in the offshore segment.

Experts suggest that the IOCs do not want to deal with local issues such as pipeline vandalism and environmental pollution, while local companies have been hailed for their investment in this area despite the risks.

The year also featured significant financial investment decisions and partnerships that would shape the future of Nigeria’s energy industry.

Here are some of the major deals in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry in 2024:

https://nairametrics.com/2024/12/26/acquisitions-and-partnerships-that-shaped-nigerias-oil-and-gas-landscape-in-2024/

Gift Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-06/force-majeure-on-south-sudan-oil-exports-lifted-after-10-months?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTczNjI1MTAxMCwiZXhwIjoxNzM2ODU1ODEwLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTUE5KSURUMEcxS1cwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI4QzRERDRCREZCODY0MzgzQTg1NTRDMTdDN0MwQzRCRiJ9._CyE9VvDR73GHrHTcq3UuPr1QKocQdbSjLNXIgidF6g

Https://guardian.ng/news/interrogating-nigeria-africas-chance-to-improved-oil-exploration-revenue/

Https://newtelegraphng.com/german-presidents-visit-boost-to-nigerias-energy-sector-analyst/

An energy analyst, Ikenna Obi, has said that the recent visit by German President, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to President Bola Tinubu has several advantages for Nigeria’s energy sector.

He explained that it strengthened energy ties between Nigeria and Germany, with discussions focused on boosting investment and accelerating existing agreements.

He noted that this included a $500 million renewable energy investment and natural gas supply to Germany.

He said: “The visit promotes German investment in Nigeria’s energy sector, particularly in renewable energy, which aligns with Nigeria’s goal of diversifying its energy sources.

The cooperation enables Nigeria to tap into Germany’s expertise in renewable energy and energy efficiency.

“Also Nigeria’s commitment to delivering 850,000 tons of natural gas to Germany’s Johannes Schuetze Energy Import AG enhances energy cooperation and provides a new revenue stream.

“The visit signifies Germany’s confidence in Nigeria’s economic reforms, which could attract more foreign investment and stimulate economic growth.

The partnership supports Nigeria’s efforts to reduce dependence on oil and gas, promoting sustainable energy development.

“Overall, President Steinmeier’s visit demonstrates Germany’s growing interest in Nigeria’s energy market, fostering a mutually beneficial partnership that addresses energy.”

During the visit, according to a statement by the Presidency, Tinubu invited German companies for investment in Nigeria’s solid minerals, renewable energy.

He reported informed the German government and companies that his government was prioritising the energy and solid minerals sectors, urging them to come and invest.

He assured the German President that his government had been doing all it could to make the sectors conducive for businesses and investments by removing unnecessary administrative obstacles and improving security.

He also emphasised the need for Nigeria to develop alternative energies, leveraging the country’s large deposits of solid minerals.

According to the statement, President Tinubu directed the ministries of Foreign Affairs, Solid Minerals, and Power, as well as the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment to work closely with investors to develop the energy sector.

Stats on gas flaring (published Jan 5th):

https://africaoilgasreport.com/2025/01/gas-monetization/nigerian-gas-shell-sold-the-most-mobil-flared-more/

Essentially, if Nigeria can reduce gas flaring considerably and expand the reach of its market within Europe, it would not only be meeting the objectives of international accords to which it is party but also, it would be increasing its economic clout and improving the lives and livelihoods of its citizens at the same time. And since there is a nexus that links international economics (especially considering the wealth of a nation) and international political clout, then increasing Nigeria’s economic base through development of its gas resources would give it further advantages in the international political arena. Also, there would be the creation of multiple job opportunities directly and indirectly related to the gas sector and as a rippling effect on other sectors not directly related to the gas industry.

Thus, this current war between Russia and Ukraine offers an opportunity to Nigeria. After all, the first concern of each state within the international system is its survival, then any other objective depending on the realities at any given point in time. The security and survival of the state supersedes every other interest and it is usually tied to the national interest of the state which is defined by the leadership [and its orientation at any moment]. At this time when Nigeria seeks to diversify its economy from the oil-based economy currently run by the government, it is only expedient that this window to boost its gas market and trade be utilised. This will also offer the European Union an opportunity to weaken Putin’s clout over its region (a topic for another discourse) in a win-win situation for Nigeria and the EU.

Https://independent.ng/expanding-the-frontier-of-nigerias-gas-market/

Despite the periodic fluctuations, Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa and the largest gas producer within sub-Saharan Africa. This makes Nigeria a strategic country within the comity of nations since oil and gas remain vital commodities that serve energy demands and power industries globally. Since 2012, Nigeria has been ranked among the top seven gas flaring countries of the world. This implies the country has no worries flaring its gas resources when it could be a source of huge revenue if harnessed.

The discovery and inauguration of the Kolmani Integrated plant in Bauchi is a good step towards the right direction. In addition to the discovery of newer gas reserves, Nigeria could, instead of flaring gas as by-product of refining crude, utilise it and improve foreign exchange earnings among other economic benefits. This is at a point when Nigeria’s national economy needs boost in production and exports to increase revenue base of the country. Gas has that capacity to increase the economic base.

However, besides the environmental concerns in gas flaring, there are also health concerns. Nigeria is party to the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement both of which are environmental accords towards having better environmental standards and more responsible laws with respect to the environment. Furthermore, the European Union (EU) recognises gas as a green energy source which improves the marketability of the product. Thus, Nigeria could delve deeper and focus more on its gas resources considering the challenges of fossil fuel to the environment and the associated threats of global warming and climate change.

The current war in Ukraine, which began since Russian invasion in February 2022, serves as the agency of opportunity for Nigeria to boost its gas market. And, with Putin holding the faucet supplying much of the gas to Europe, European states need an alternative to Russian gas. Germany, for instance, relies on Russia for 40% of its gas [and energy] needs and this is the situation with most countries in Europe. One possible way that the EU could turn is towards sub-Saharan Africa for substitute.

This possibility is already underway since the European Union has identified some countries with gas potentials within sub-Saharan Africa. Here lies the opportunity for Nigeria to expand its gas market within Europe. The gas pipeline project from Nigeria to Morocco is a good bet with little odds. It will definitely ease European access to Nigerian gas, which implies an increase to Nigeria’s gas market within the Maghreb countries and Eurozone.

The war has also revealed the extent to which the world is dependent on both countries in the conflict – Russia and Ukraine – for certain foods like wheat. This is another opportunity for Nigeria to invest massively in the area of wheat production, at least, to meet domestic demand for the commodity.

(CONT'D

Could SAVE be part of the four layers of the QUAD LAYER HOLDINGS?

As you know very well, there is already a refinery there but it is small, it is not serving that much so there is a proposal for the construction of a new refinery and that new refinery will be valued at the sum of 3 billion dollars and this will be owned by 30 percent Nilepet and 70 percent another company called Quad Layer Holdings,” he revealed.

Seplat’s goal is to lift output to more than 200,000 barrels a day, from about 71,000 barrels of oil equivalent daily now, Chief Executive Officer Roger Brown said in the same interview, without adding how quickly this would happen.

“In the portfolio we have significant gas opportunities,” Brown also said. “There is huge opportunity in LNG and the domestic gas space.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-13/seplat-to-revive-hundreds-of-exxon-s-old-idle-nigerian-oil-wells?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTczNDA4ODg5OCwiZXhwIjoxNzM0NjkzNjk4LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTT0RRTUFUMEcxS1cwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI4QzRERDRCREZCODY0MzgzQTg1NTRDMTdDN0MwQzRCRiJ9.QSUjvp-yla92kOViCQz4t-Y0xiCu7_YHcboU-zeb4Lw

FX reserves also up to $40bn end of November, from $33bn in June.

https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/foreign-exchange-reserves

Thigns are stabilizing. Nigeria also successfully placed $2.5bn in Eurobonds.

Thanks TIL

I disagree with the article in that I do not believe we will get a detailed update in December. "Savannah Energy also indicated that a detailed update would be shared by mid-December or the end of the year, signaling potential progress."

What SAVE said is "We continue to believe that a transaction could be potentially accretive to the Company and expect to provide a further update on progress made by mid to late December 2024." which is the same language used throughout the year, ie. all we will likely get is meaningless extension language, but certainly no detailed update.

NOV RNS: "A further update on progress, and associated matters, is expected to be made by mid to late December 2024."

SEP RNS: "A further update on progress, and associated matters, is expected to be made by or in early November."

And so forth.

(2/2)

“For his energy adviser, a cabinet-level position, he selected me, a young woman, technocrat, with no political ambitions. It was and is a bold experiment in many ways – picking young, female and putting her in the space, and empowering her to be disruptive. The President could have picked a more traditional choice in the Nigerian context: male, older, more political, more government experience.

Let’s face it, I’m not the most likely candidate for such a role in the office of an African president. Previous presidential energy advisers in Nigeria have come from a very different mould. But President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a man driven to do things differently. You can see this in the bold macroeconomic reforms that have come to define his time thus far in office. He takes this maxim very seriously: “If you want to see different results, you need to do things differently.

“For his all-important energy reforms – he bet on a young woman and her team of disruptors, in a sector dominated by men. That’s how I ended up as the Special Adviser on Energy, overseeing the design and coordination of reforms in the oil, gas and power sectors from the President’s office. The President saw my capacity and competence, but even more importantly, he saw that I was a bringing a unique experience, youthful, multifaceted, global, adventurous, disruptive”.