Member Info for rumpelstielzchen

You want to do a placing from a position of strength, if there is a clear project with positive NPV...

The raise is a punch in our face. It would have been if we relisted at around 25p, due to dilution, and it it is a sucker punch at the placing price of 7p. We get dilution and it anchors the relist price.

Who determined the price for the raise? 25% of raise taken down by AK and board, the remained IIs. The IIs will know that their existing holdings are marked lower, or is it new IIs with no previous holdings?

The question is WHY. It is a relatively small amount, and the majority of the raise seems to go towards repaying 21mm of debt? Is SAVE is such dire position that they need this raise to pay debt? To me the signalizing of the raise is what also keeps is below 10p. Presumably SAVE struggles to collect cash (receivables at 500m+ and not really going down)?

On the other side, if SAVE were in dire situation they could possible not have signed 200mm debt facility? Perhaps the provider of the debt facility is taking the 75% of the placement as "underwriter fee"?

More questions than answers from the RNS. Lets hope the audio is ok at 2pm...

I am down six figures from the pre-suspension price... Trying too stay rationale for now and keep the position.

"it was not their choice to be suspended" wonder how brining in a partner changes this situation. If it is a 50:50 JV with the partner, it might no longer be considered RTO for SAVE ..

The Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, Mele Kyari, has said that the federal government is committed to improving gas infrastructure to boost access to energy for millions of Nigerians.

“Today, investors are increasingly recognizing that investing in Nigeria, particularly in the oil and gas sector, offers not only the potential for solid returns but also a stable fiscal environment that promises long-term profitability,” Kyari stated.

https://nairametrics.com/2025/02/26/improved-gas-infrastructure-will-boost-energy-access-in-nigeria-transform-economy-mele-kyari/

Let's see how our Chad claim plays out this year ...

•NLNG’s appeal rejected, says reviewing ruling

A London court has awarded a $380 million judgment against the Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) for non-delivery of cargoes to trading houses Vitol and Glencore.

The court awarded $260 million in compensation to Vitol, and $120 million to Glencore.

The case heard in London’s High Court and Court of Appeal is the latest in a string of lawsuits brought by buyers against sellers and producers for non-delivery of cargoes after gas rallied from lows plumbed during the COVID pandemic when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

According to Reuters, Taleveras sued Nigerian venture, known as NLNG and involving Shell (SHEL.L) TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) and Eni (ENI.MI) as partners, four years ago.

These three companies are minority shareholders in NLNG, along with the Nigerian state-owned oil company which has 49 per cent.

Last week, Taleveras had NLNG’s appeal rejected, according to an official video of court proceedings.

A full written judgment is due to be released in the coming weeks.

NLNG runs Nigeria’s biggest LNG plant, which covers around five per cent of global supply.

NLNG said it was reviewing the ruling and declined further comment. Shell, Eni and TotalEnergies declined to comment.

Court proceedings focused on 19 cargoes that NLNG had been due to deliver to Taleveras in 2020-2021.

Taleveras had pre-sold some of these cargoes to Vitol and Glencore, according to court documents.

The trading houses took legal action against Taleveras for non-delivery, leading to a chain of litigation, according to court documents seen by Reuters.

The lost appeal means NLNG will need to pay Vitol about $260 million and about $120 million to Glencore, the documents said.

Vitol and Glencore did not respond to requests for comment. It was not clear how much Taleveras would receive on top of $380 million. Taleveras declined to comment.

European benchmark gas prices swung between 3.63 euros ($4.14) per megawatt-hour in 2020 as demand fell because of the pandemic and 311 euros ($328) per MWh in 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine disrupted supplies to Europe.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2025/02/26/london-court-awards-380m-against-nlng-over-alleged-breach-of-contract/

I posted about gas flaring in Nigeria before. Here another article on the potential. Sounds like a sector SAVE could engage? Also fits SAVE's ESG agenda well - less flaring, less environmental impact (see World Bank link at bottom).

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has announced that the Nigeria Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) has the potential to unlock $2.5 billion in investment in the country’s oil and gas sector.

NUPRC’s Chief Executive Officer, Gbenga Komolafe, made this known on Wednesday during the African Upstream Forum at the 2025 Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) in Abuja.

Komolafe stated that the programme would not only attract massive investment but also generate significant revenue and create thousands of jobs.

(...)

“As the global focus shifts toward a low-carbon future, NUPRC is embedding sustainability into seven upstream operations, mitigating environmental risks and protecting communities,” he said.

“Key actions include: managing methane and GHG emissions; fostering energy efficiency and carbon credits, promoting investments in Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) and enforcing Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) goals.

“Through the Nigeria Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP), approximately $2.5 billion in investment will potentially be unlocked, generating huge revenue, and creating a significant number of jobs.

“We have been deliberate in efforts at social inclusiveness for enhancing host community development.”

https://nairametrics.com/2025/02/27/nigerias-gas-flare-commercialisation-programme-could-unlock-2-5-billion-investment-nuprc/

https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/gasflaringreduction/gas-flaring-explained#:~:text=Assuming%20a%20'typical'%20associated%20gas,tons%20of%20CO2equivalent%20emissions%20annually.

BIG numbers here across Africa energy ... I wish SAVE would focus more on Nigeria. Seems there is ample potential and relative more stable for investors than other jurdistriction (Chad, SS).

The Minister for State, Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has decried the underperformance of Upstream operators, citing it as a major threat to achieving sustainability in the nation’s oil and gas sector.

(...)

He explained that the African downstream oil sector is set for steady growth with a projected 4%percent cumulative average growth rate over the next five years, adding that to meet this rising demand, $2.1 trillion in energy sector investment will be required by the year 2040.

He noted that Governments are increasingly collaborating with the private sector to drive investments in refining storage, pipeline networks, and distribution systems.

“Initiatives such as the Niger-Morocco gas pipeline, the expansion of LPG terminals, and regional fuel depots underscore the importance of PPPs in closing infrastructure gaps and ensuring long-term fuel security. Increased focus on gas and renewables, the rise of LNG, LPG, CNG, and emerging biofuels initiatives highlight Africa’s growing inclusion of cleaner and more sustainable energy options.

https://businessday.ng/energy/oilandgas/article/underperformance-of-upstream-operators-threatening-nigerias-energy-sector-minister/

Don't get me wrong, I rather get limited updates and suspension than delisting like some of my other holdings (RMM, HZM) =) Most of my SAVE are in the SIPP and ISA so I am in no particular rush for liquidity.

Funny how they always run up the clock to the last day.

Update "expected by end Feb 2025" ... as if they expect things to change in next 24h hours! At this rate we will still be suspended Feb 2026 ...

First Dar blend since pipeline restart being loaded onto suezmax tanker Toska

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/george-economou-owned-suezmax-tanker-lifts-first-dar-crude-cargo-for-a-year/2-1-1783565

Track the vessel: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:9176072/zoom:10

Missed this when it came out. Should be supportive NGN long term.

Jan 30th

Nigerian’s central bank is in the last stages of clearing backlogs of unmet foreign exchange obligations following an initial exercise last year. 

Governor Olayemi Cardoso said he will settle fresh claims upon verification by forensic auditors to boost market liquidity and investor confidence. “We are at the final stages of separating what qualifies as fully verified and we will surely be paying out those moneys,” he said in a speech in Abuja, the capital.

The lender said in March it had cleared all dollar backlogs amounting to $7 billion to industries and foreigners to ease demand for the greenback and rein in the local currency, weighed down by an acute foreign-exchange shortage at the time. 

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, however, noted that about $2.4 billion of forward contacts hadn’t been settled. The central bank responded that it had settled only transactions that were verified.

“It is unfortunate, to be honest, that it has taken so long,” Cardo said. “Talking about the $7 billion backlog, we have cleared the verified claims,” he said, adding that all genuine claims will be settled to ensure businesses and investors are able to repatriate funds and the foreign-exchange market is stable.

The naira has lost about 70% of its value against the dollar since authorities relaxed foreign-exchange controls in 2023 and devalued the currency. But it has strengthened in the past three months amid a surge in dollar liquidity. It traded at 1,477.50 per dollar as of 4.26pm in Lagos, the strongest level since Nov. 20.

Https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2025/02/17/nuprc-nigeria-winning-war-against-illegal-bunkering-oil-theft-reduced-to-5000-bpd/

Https://businessday.ng/market-intelligence/article/nigeria-to-unlock-257bn-gas-fields-with-tax-credits/

The annual capacity of the pipeline would be up to 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas..

To put in perspective, technical capacity via Ukraine is 85bcm/y. Though actual flow were around 40bcm in 2021, around 50bcm in 2020. In 2017 we were at max around 70bcm.

Was curious on build time. Here from a 2022 article:

According to experts, the pipeline could be completed in three years "if we push forwards", said Attar. If greater urgency is required, the former minister said, the timescale can be shortened.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/algeria-trans-saharan-pipeline-nigeria-alternative-russian-gas#:~:text=According%20to%20experts%2C%20the%20pipeline,the%20timescale%20can%20be%20shortened.

Dar Petroleum Operating Co. has resumed producing oil from a number of its wells in South Sudan after almost a year, people with knowledge of the matter said.

The company, operated by China National Petroleum Corp., China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. and state-owned Nile Petroleum Corp., has reopened four batches of wells, one of the people said, asking not to be identified as they are not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

Block 3 and Block 7 in the Upper Nile State, which account for three-quarters of South Sudan’s overall output, were shut a year ago when neighboring Sudan declared a force majeure on its pipeline. The stoppage was lifted in January after about 10 months of no exports, which had throttled the biggest source of revenue for the nation.

South Sudan, which seceded from Sudan in 2011 but still relies on it’s northern neighbor for a network of pipelines, refineries and ports, is targeting crude production of as much as 90,000 barrels a day within six months of the resumption, Oil Minister Puot Kang Chol said last month.

The minister and his undersecretary didn’t respond to text messages seeking comment about the resumption of oil production.

Https://www.channelstv.com/2025/02/12/algeria-nigeria-niger-sign-deals-on-gas-pipeline-to-europe/

Officials from Algeria, Nigeria and Niger signed new contracts Tuesday aimed at accelerating the development of a vast natural gas pipeline toward Europe, the Algerian press agency APS reported.

The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), announced in 2009, would transport billions of cubic metres of gas 4,128 kilometres (2,565 miles) from Nigeria in West Africa through Niger and on to Algeria.

From there it could be pumped through the undersea Mediterranean pipeline Transmed to Italy, or loaded onto liquefied natural gas tankers for export.

At a meeting of ministers for the project in Algiers, the three countries signed contracts on “an update of the feasibility study” and other issues, including non-disclosure agreements among their state energy companies.

The feasibility update will lay out the “required means for accelerating the development of this major project in a timely manner and at competitive costs”, Algerian Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab said.

No update was given for the pipeline’s cost, which was estimated at launch at $10 billion.

The project has been given new urgency by a surge in gas demand worldwide and soaring prices sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Amid hike in price of PMS, among others, Conoil announced N323.13 billion revenue in 2024, about 60.5 per cent increase over N201.39 billion in 2023.

Furthermore, Eterna delivered N313.6 billion revenue in 2024, a growth of 71 per cent from N183.3 billion in 2023, while MRS Oil Nigeria Plc reported N312.23 billion revenue in 2024, uup by 71.3per cent from N182.3 billion in 2023.

The growth in revenue is coming at a time when the price of PMS, among other products, have increased significantly.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the average retail price paid by consumers for Petrol for December 2024 was N1189.12, indicating a 76.99per cent increase compared to the value recorded in December 2023 (N671.86).

NBS stated that in December 2024, the average price for refilling a 5kg cylinder of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) in Nigeria was N7,177.27, which was a 44.62per cent increase from N4,962.87 in December 2023.

“For a 12.5kg cylinder, the average price in December 2024 was N17,274.16, which was a 50.08per cent increase from N11,510.16 in December 2023,” NBS added.

Analysts have attributed the hike in these companies’ revenue to the federal government’s reforms in the oil & gas sector, urging investors to take positions in companies with fundamentals.

The Chief Operating Officer of InvestData Consulting Limited, Mr Ambrose Omordion, attributed the increase in revenue of these companies to higher-margin crude oil products, stressing that the ease of movement also contributed to revenue and profit.

According to him, “These companies reported an increase in revenue due to higher margin in products they sold this year. The reforms in the oil & gas sector have impacted on revenue that translates into profit.”

The Vice President, Highcap Securities Limited, Mr. David Adnori, told THISDAY that the growth in the period under review was driven by increase in petroleum price, stressing that increasing business activities, also a driving factor

According to him, “The crude oil price per barrel in the global commodity market was low in 2020 and it affected the price of petrol. The federal government was reliant on increasing the price of petrol at some time. The growth recorded in revenue by these companies has a lot to do with improvement in business activities than the hike in price of petroleum products.”

“Despite a challenging operating environment, we achieved a 45% increase in revenue to N4.1 trillion, reflecting the strength of our business model, and nine per cent rise in profit after tax to N65.5 billion, notwithstanding the costs associated with the onboarding of NAOC.”

Aradel Holdings, a newly listed oil & gas company on NGX posted N581.02 billion revenue in the year under review, up by 163 per cent from N221.14 billion declared in the corresponding period of 2023.

For Aradel Holdings, the management said the significant increase in revenue was primarily due to: “244.6per cent increase in export crude oil revenue (64.31per cent of total revenue) to N373.7 billion (2023 N108.4 billion; 49.03per cent of total), attributed to increased production levels, significant impact of improved utilisation of the Trans Niger Pipeline (TNP) on which there has been reduced crude losses, and additional value from the Alternative Crude Evacuation (ACE) route with resultant higher crude oil lifting of 3.1 mbbls in 2024 (FY 2023: 2.1 mbbls).

The Chief Executive Officer, Aradel Holdings, Mr. Adegbite Falade said, “The Company sustained its strong operational and financial performance in 2024, building on the improvements achieved in 2023.

“We recorded increased topline and bottomline, driven by significantly higher hydrocarbon production, the successful re-entry of Well 2ST in the Omerelu Field, which resulted in the attainment of First Oil on 31st May 2024 and increased sales volumes from our refinery operations. We successfully drilled Wells 14 and 15, marking the conclusion of our Phase 1, four-well turnkey drilling campaign with favourable results.

“We kicked off the second phase of the drilling campaign with Well 16, which is approaching completion. To support the anticipated production growth, we expanded the throughput capacity of our evacuation channels, positioning us to maintain strong output and efficiency levels throughout the year.

“We completed the acquisition of the Olo and Olo West Marginal Fields from the TotalEnergies/NNPC Joint venture, and entered an agreement to acquire a minority equity interest in Chappal Energies Mauritius Limited – an energy company focusing on investments in deep value and brownfield upstream opportunities within Africa.”

He added, “Aradel is also an equity participant in the Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited, the acquirer of Shell’s 100 per cent equity interest in the Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) Limited, for which Ministerial Consent has been obtained. These acquisitions further enhance our portfolio and create new opportunities for future production growth.

“They will complement our existing operations and provide significant long-term value, aligning with our broader strategy of expanding our asset base to multiple assets across different locations, and increasing the resilience as well as sustainability of our business.”

Https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2025/02/12/six-oil-gas-companies-revenue-up-57-to-n6-69trn-on-pms-price-hike/

Following the Federal Government reforms in the Oil && Gas sector, Oando Plc, and five other OIl & gas companies generated an estimated N6.69 trillion revenue in 2024, about 57 per cent increase when compared to N4.27 trillion in 2023.

The remaining five oil & gas companies are: Totalenergies Marketing Nigeria Plc, MRS Oil Nigeria Plc, Aradel Holdings Plc, Eterna Plc and Conoil Plc.

Analysis of their unaudited result and accounts for the period ended December 31, 2024, showed that the six companies declared N440.09 billion profit before tax in 2024, a significant increase of 84 per cent from N239.01 billion in 2023.

The companies’ revenue grew significantly to reflect price adjustment in Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), stable global oil prices, among other factors.

These companies benefited from FG’s reforms in recent years and it has attracted investment in the oil and gas sector.

The reforms were aimed at enhancing operational efficiencies, increasing local participation, and encouraging a shift toward cleaner energy practices.

Part of the reforms include: Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), deregulation of the downstream sector, gas infrastructure development and promotion, ease of doing business initiatives, among others.

Further analysis showed that Oando recorded N4.12 trillion revenue, about 45 per cent increase over N2.85 trillion reported in 2023, while Totalenergies Marketing Nigeria declared N1.04 trillion revenue in 2024, representing an increase of 63.8 per cent from N635.95 billion reported in 2023.

The management of Oando in a statement said its revenue growth was driven by higher crude oil volumes lifted, and higher gas prices as well as the positive impact of exchange rate translations, offset by lower trading volumes, reduced natural gas and NGL volumes, and lower realized sale prices for crude oil and NGL.

Speaking on the results, Group Chief Executive, Oando, Wale Tinubu, said, “2024 was a year of transformation for Oando, the key highlight being our successful acquisition and subsequent integration of NAOC Ltd, which significantly enhanced our production capacity, attaining peak operated production of 103,206boepd and net entitlements of 45,000 boepd.