Member Info for RuckRover

Morning C7, All,

As you suspect, my comment was prompted by disappointment. Over the years, delays have always been explained with very plausible reasons. There comes a point when there are so many "plausible" reasons that you begin to wonder.

You'd think developing a Covid treatment in the middle of a global Covid pandemic would have a lot of support and be carried out with diligence and urgency. I find the stalled progress in terms of recruitment very disappointing.

I am grateful to Bermuda, Ivy and C7+4 for their comments on trial recruitment. This does give some context. However it does come down to a numbers game. If you need to screen 100 people to get 10 then you need to screen 400 to get 40. This shouldn't be too difficult should it?

I have worked in SA and seen how recruitment works among some sectors of society. People wanting work gather on street corners and if you need people you drive round in a pickup truck and collect who you want. It wouldn't take very long to get 400 would it.

I'm sure the real reasons for delay are very complex and very genuine. But fobbing us off with lame excuses is an insult to our intelligence.

TF,
In South Africa over the last 7 days, 9.6% tests have come back positive. Even with my limited maths I can work out that 90.4% are therefore negative.
So, a random sample of 27 people should produce 24 who are Covid negative which would complete the 40 required.
To me, the excuse for the stalled recruitment given by the company is pretty lame. It seems there are major flaws in recruitment process.
16 may be feasible but it's not as good as 40.

WTP,
It's hardly surprising is it?
In the run up to any "event" - in this case interim results there are an abundance of inflated expectations bordering on hysterical euphoria.
This week, the news was not only way below those expectations but worse than the most modest hopes. 16 patients dosed?
So the tone (mood) is set by the news (or lack of) and the SP follows suit.

Rigga,
I'm sure the data is valid.
Whether the data on 16 people out of 9 billion is significant, I guess not.
The whole point of this trial is (was) to prove safety in a small number (40), then get a partner to stump up the cash to run a 3000 person trial. I hope they are able to speed up recruitment if/when that happens.

Pre-order the "2030 Pivotal Year" T-shirt anyone?

I must say, I find the relatively small trades at a fraction of what we all think/hope rather insignificant. Whether it's Vulpes or DE moving his pension around doesn't really matter.

Wake me up when Roche buy 815 million at £1.
Or, we find another person in SA to jab. There are 59 million South Africans - it shouldn't be that hard surely?

£1.80p?
Yes, I think that is a realistic possibility.

Martin,
Bad news: I'm afraid they already have - been waiting 9 years for one now.

Konar,
Sorry you are quite right about SCIB1 first patient dosed.
The good thing about a senile fading memory is that regurgitated news seems fresh and exciting.
Plus I've forgotten how long I've been invested (I think it was last week) so can't get impatient.

Hasiba,

Scancell is potentially worth exactly the same today as it was yesterday.
The reason for the drop is not bad news but news falling below the overinflated expectations of a few impatient investors.
It's a shame that people have picked on "only 16 patients dosed" bit and seem to have missed the "first patient dosed in SCIB1 trial". This is highly significant news. Presumably this didn't happen in the last few hours so suggests no major adverse reaction?

No, same old, same old.

"Ruck - red dot appears at last ? ."
Great, I'll re-read it and see if there is any news now.

Burble, AB,
I have to agree. The only issue here is misplaced expectation and unwarranted disappointment.

The timelines and milestones of scientific research and clinical trials don't usually coincide nicely with company legal requirements. Sometimes they can be manipulated to be close but not always.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if some "real" news landed in the next few weeks - when we are not expecting it.

Perhaps it doesn't qualify for a red dot as it doesn't contain any new news?

"Be nice then to see another sub 20p Diggle Wiggle"

Be nicer to see them buying 30p +

If it's a transfer at mid price the timing is not significant is it?

Ray,
True, I was talking about an insignificant drop in sp. your scenario covers the insignificant increase in share price so thanks for clarifying.
There must be a Burnley analogy there but after a few glasses of Argentinian Malbec I can't think of it.

Violindog,
Fraction of a penny daily fluctuations have no effect on whether or not this makes £1 more or not.
A bit like going down the cellar and saying you are further away from the sun.

Stampee,

Scancell have been working in the field of Immunotherapy, in particular immuno-oncology targetting cancers for over a decade.
Recently they have utilised their immunotherapy expertise developing a vaccine for COVID-19. The motivation to do so no doubt due to the huge impact on the whole population of the planet.
There have been studies to show that t-cells can be used to attack bacteria as well cancers and viruses (see link below). Scancell's founder and CEO prof Lindy Durrant is a big fan of T-cell responses. So while this is not a main target currently, who knows what the future may bring?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2896662/

Ratty,
i Think your spot-on with you're asesssmant. this defanetly will make £8 by next week.
There you go - you can call me Inan.

C11,
Are they a bit more substantial than paper trades?