Member Info for RuckRover

Crumbs,
I think Allan was asking about the value of SCIB1 - melanoma. Keytruda is used on numerous cancer type, I think the big one for them is lung cancer.

Talking of which, why no mention of SCIB2 in the TD report? Has this been shelved?

roses,

There are a wide range of figures banded about. This one for example puts oncology success from P1 at 3.4%

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/11/clinical-trial-success-rates-phase-and-therapeutic-area-14845

Roses,
I'm not sure sure it is out of date or wrong. The success rate is different for different sorts of drugs. Oncology drugs have a far lower success rate than others. This is why I go on the basis that it will be successful (100%). If it's not successful it won't be 10% it will be zilch.

C11,
I checked with a dodgy looking geezer at the end of the pier. Not sure whether it was Zoltinan but he said 8 quid.

Moonparty,
Posts crossed - snap.

C11,
On average, only 10% of phase one drugs make it to market.
They have simply used an industry average.

Dragon,
Price by Oct 2023?

It all depends on what data comes out of the ModiFY trial (and others)
TD reckon £1.19 if successful but apply a 10% chance (11.9p).
I reckon MODI1 is worth around 80p alone if successful.
So given all the products in the pipeline (3 in trial currently) it has to be 80-120p hasn't it?

What you have to realise is that the factor (flaw?) in TD's calculations is the "risk adjusted" part.

For example, the NPV (Net present value) of MODI1 is £970M. That is £1.19p per share. But since they only give it a 10% chance of success, that translates to 11.9p in their valuation.

They value Glycans and Avidimab each greater than MODI1 but with a far lower chance of success - 2.5% and 2% respectively. These two have a combined potential value of £2.50 per share (fully diluted)

So it comes to £4.25 per share including the £30M cash in the bank.

The summary of the science and products I think is excellent. A great starting point for anyone new to the share. Just take the 29p with a pinch of salt. We should get to that in the next 6 weeks!

If only they had called it the Dick flop after his first name rather than Fosbury.

Krafty,

You are right - nearly 10 years.....
The Moditope platform was announced via RNS on 15th August 2012.
Immediately prior to this, the SP had bounced around 12p-15p. Following the MODI announcement the SP settled in the 30s and then gradually increased in anticipation of the final results on 12th October. The 60p was reached one day only on the eve of results (11th October) . After this is spent nearly a year in the mid to high 40s.

Bermuda wrote.
"Modi1 is the main reason why many longs have remained invested "
Agreed. For me it was the Moditope discovery that changed this from just another investment in the portfolio to something that could be really special.
Been holding strong for nearly 10 years!

A couple of questions....

"it isn't semantics, it's a plain fact that posters do not delete others' posts."
Isn't that a bit like saying Vladimir Putin doesn't shoot people?

Isn't a boiler room scam where people are suckered into BUYING a ramped up share?

Chester,
"11.24p a share is a real bargain given the potential values of Scancells 4 Platforms."

Some would consider a 25% discount is a "real bargain".
Are you hoping for 16p then?

Moonparty,

If a building was on fire, and you put the fire out you have eliminated the risk of it burning down. You can't say there is now less risk since the building has a higher risk of collapsing due to structural damage.

So while certain individual risks with Scancell have been eliminated as you highlight, I don't think it is fair to say that there is less risk overall. Some of the risks may have increased. For example, the longer they go without commercialising a platform, the higher the risk that they ever will. The longer we go without news, the higher the risk of investor fatigue and a lower SP. The lower the SP goes, the higher the risk of a takeover at a low (ish) price.
Imo.

Burble,
Many thanks for the comprehensive reply.
My father-in-law who is in a care home, is 97 years old and has 5 separate co-morbidities had Covid and shook it off in 3 days.
As well as personal contact I think the use of hand sanitizer and antibacterial wash has reduced ability to fight infection.

Glad your feeling better.
You don't want a Pita while driving. I did it once and got kebab and chilli sauce all over me.

Anyway on a serious note. There are lots of people with similar symptoms (cough, fatigue) who are testing negative for Covid. Are these just colds with similar or are the tests a bit dodgy do you think?

Somewhere no one would look - the Burnley trophy cabinet perhaps?

We’ve all been poking around in the dark for ages

I did mean to put "over the years", but I think tears is more apt!

Violin,
" as a seasoned SCLP investor something i am well experienced with" LOL

As a fellow "seasoned" investor I did originally put these in the top draw but over the tears have dropped to the bottom.

Goldie,
"Some good buying Friday followed by this absolutely woeful pile of ****e today.
Any ideas?"

If the pattern of +8% one day followed by -1% the next, I'd be quite happy.