Member Info for RuckRover

Ratty,
We all make assumptions, educated or otherwise.
It's not a case of demanding absolute facts, rather rejecting downright lies.

Clinical trial estimated end dates:

Covidity Dec 2022
SCIB1 Dec 2023
MODI1 June 2026

WTP,
I'm not sure about wanting to cover all bases. If they believe in mRNA then that's what they will put all their resources into. I didn't see VHS developing Betamax "just in case".

Kd,
"I think some of the projected valuations touted here are a bit ambitious"
I think all valuations are ambitious - some are more ambitious than others!
What are you hoping for realistically?

"P.s. I agree, we are a perfect fit for Biontech"
I don't see it. BioNtech are developing mRNA vaccines while SCLP are developing DNA vaccines.
Chalk and cheese I'd have thought?

"with no news from SCLP on the near horizon I think we will be lucky if we stick at 13"

You can interpret this in two ways:
1) I don't think there there is any news on the horizon
2) IF there is no news on the horizon, the SP may fall further.

I believe violin meant the latter.

Dalester,
No intention to "shoot you down". At this stage valuations are anybody's guess.
But I think it is worth comparing methods though to understand the components better.

Your £480M revenue is lower than TD's £612M (17.5% of £3.5B)
So using your formula on this figure would come to £3.35 per share.
The TD calculation takes into account the fact that revenue is not expected until 2029. So the NPV is 99p per share and with risk factor applied (10%) 9.9p.
That is for MODO1 alone. So I think anything between £1 and £3 is feasible in the next 2 to 3 years.

C7,
absolutely.
great science - great products - great data - great deals!

Cleaner,

Do you mean these slides?

https://investors.biontech.de/static-files/edee73bd-1620-4f51-a419-7ce7782ffa0f

Violin,
"Surely most bio companies usually rise in expectation of results?"
If you are talking financial results: Not necessarily. We know that revenue will be zero. We know roughly what the cash burn is so can work out the loss and how much cash is likely to be left. So no surprises either good or bad.

If you are talking trial results: we don't know when these will be divulged so really can't be in a state of expectation. Any significant movement will be AFTER we get them not in "expectation of".
AIMO.

C11,
I'm afraid the comment was neither inaccurate nor offensive.
I'm not sure if you spotted but my original comment was directed at YOU. So if I have been offensive then it has been to you and NOT the BB or Scancell.

Ratty,
"you know what I have and haven't read"
You can make an informed guess based on what people say. For example, you have not given any indication that you understand why the market reacted badly to the last RNS (which many thought was "good".
But you are right, maybe you do know but don't like to say publicly.

C11,

Yes, investors do like to know what they are getting into.
If you told people they got a weekly POD cast from the CEO, a weekly podcast from the CSO and a weekly podcast from a guest speaker from the university of Notts then possibly they would be disappointed.
If you said, this is a great company with a great CSO with some potentially world beating products and the potential to make a lot of money but don't expect weekly updates then they wouldn't have any false hopes.

Max,
I wouldn't hold your breathe!

ratty,
"Maybe just reread the RNSs, look at the products v the market, and contemplate what you can see, what you can't see, and what you can reasonably expect to develop."
That's good advice. Why don't you try it yourself?

I too have had reservations in the past about LD performing three roles (CEO, CSO and Uni).
But turn it on its head, instead of thinking can a scientist do the job of CEO maybe at a biotech company the role of CEO can ONLY be done by a scientist.

A case in point is Ugur Sahin of BioNTech, you know the billionaire CEO of the multi billion dollar company.

I'm sure LD has a very competent team around her. But given her performance in presentations, interviews and at AGMs, she is more than capable of handling any situation herself. Don't forget, a major part of the negotiations will focus on the science and the interpretation of scientific data. There is no one better than LD for this.

That's my opinion anyway. I do wonder why some are so reluctant to discuss valid topics. It is right and proper to discuss funding, the performance of the bod, the performance of individuals and anything else relevant to an investment in biotech. Trying to suppress debate is counter productive. New investors are far more likely to be attracted by open discussion and a positive conclusion.

C11,
Of course it's not "welcomed". But some will (and have) acknowledged it's true.

AB,
My thoughts exactly. If MODI works this is a billion dollar company. Even TD with their ultra cautious, risk adjusted, future projected, fully diluted valuation of 24p per share is miles away from where we are at the moment. Surely that confirms the SCLP story is just not getting across to investors - even mushrooms like us?

Still if you are a LTH who does get the story it doesn't really matter what the day to day sp is. And, if you have spare cash you are willing to chuck in , the low price is doing you a favour.
Just don't call me a fun-guy! (fungi? - oh never mind)

Oh the irony LOL!
The kept in the dark mushroom being fed **** who doesn't know they are!

Sorry C11, let's move on we've done that joke to death already.

I'll tell you why I'm still here. I have had a substantial amount of cash tied up for 10 years in this company. I have managed (just) to keep my average to 12.5p. So it looks like I am at break-even? No - because of the missed investment opportunities elsewhere. So an SP of 28p would give me a 8.5% pa return. Not a lot for a long term high risk investment is it? So I'm waiting for 50p which will give me a 15% pa return.

C11,
I don't know - why are you?

"Like I said, each to their own."

Yes, some people like to be kept informed and some are happy being kept in the dark and fed s***!