RE: SP movement..21 Sep 2022 13:26
Ray,
Perhaps I could add a comment as someone who examines data and produces forecasts for a living.
The primary method of forecasting is to use past history, look for trends and project these forwards.
The dilemma for forecasters is do you use old data or recent data to calculate average. Recent data is more "up to date" and may reflect more accurately what is happening right now and therefore what might happen in the future but suffers from being volatile. Old data is more stable as will smooth out random fluctuations but can "out of date" ie, lags behind what is happening now.
All a golden cross indicates is that a moving average using recent data has risen above a moving average using older data. It is quite a primitive method of assessing trend - you should spot a rising (or falling) trend long before to charts intersect. Whether an upward trend will continue into the future will depend on a whole load of other factors.
If you spot a golden cross early, you might make some money getting in before other people notice the golden cross and start buying. It may work on blue chips but unlikely on a small stock like Scancell. This will be driven by data and news.
So in a way you are both right - each to his own I guess. AIMHO.