Member Info for RuckRover

Bojo,
Scancell already have the cash and Redmile have the loan notes. Scancell were due to pay the debt or issue shares this year. That date has been put back.

Wiggy,

Looks like the price was a little sensitive to the news - 20p breached at one point.

Ray,
It would be wholly unusual for the CEO not to turn up for the AGM.

Having said that, Burnley didn't turn up for the match on Saturday!

Now that's a headline I can't wait for....

"Scancell's Moditope melts Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumours"

Seriously though, many thanks Burble for the unique insights. We are privileged to have you posting here.

Cleaner,
I think very modest is an understatement.
When you think the TD ultra conservative, risk adjusted, NPV, fully diluted value is 24p. That was before the recent news!
30p+ at least NOW.

maybe the donkey got excited hence the rise?

bobbust,

I agree, certainly one of the risks has been reduced.
I'd be interested to see a revised valuation from TD. They give MODI1 a 10% chance of success and Glycans 2.5%.
Given the recent news on MODI and Glymab, surely these success rates have to be improved. 15% on MODI and 5% on Glymab would increase their valuation from 24p to 32p.
I don't see a lot of risk at 17p, hence my buy today.

"I’d take £2 :)"
So would I!
The choice is take 60p by xmas, £2 in the next 18 months or wait another 10 years for £8.
(IMO)

mornington,
It depends whether you give credibility to those people.
The "professionals" (Trinity Delta) are saying 24p so yes, it should be higher. If you take away the risk factor (assume it works) the TD calculation is around £2.

chester,

The obligation Scancell have is to notify the market of any price sensitive information via RNS. They don't have to do a proactive interview every time.
If people don't get the significance of the last few written notifications it's tough.
I'm sure some extra bits will be released before or at the AGM so maybe it's just a case of waiting until then.

Here's a similar sounding deal (this time Genmab are the licensor rather than the licensee..

https://ir.genmab.com/static-files/9d35182e-e92a-4827-8eca-25ac28f59ed4

If the Scancell/Genmab deal is along similar lines, a 1.8% upfront payment (on £208M) could be £3.7M

Cleaner,
Yes, that's what I had initially thought and reinforced by TD - these deals may well fund future trials and research. After all, the cash burn is relatively modest £13M per year. This may increase but even £20M per year income is not an unrealistic expectation from these deals.

TF,
You have a very rigorous selection process and fire any that slip through.
I worked for a company like that, everyone was "talented" (apart from me :) )

KonarA,

The difference in your analogy is, it IS a Ming plate, it IS worth 1 million and there are several competing buyers.

There is no doubt that Scancell's ultimate value WILL BE high but the question is what will a pharma fork out NOW for something that MAY be worth £8/share in several years time.
If Redmile can turn their £50M investment into £1 BILLION in 2 years, that's pretty good going I'd say.

KonarA,

Interesting.
Suppose a big Pharma offered £2 per share. It would be up to Redmile and Vulpes and enough PIs in order for it to be accepted. The BOD with their 2.4% stake wouldn't have much say.
What could LD do with a research budget of £500M. Tempting isn't it.
If Redmile were against it, it would be unlikely to go through. So I think Redmile call the shots here. Would they accept £2/share for their stake? (they paid 10.6p)

C7,

It is I know!
But the news the past few days has been massive. If we can do more deals like Genmab on other products, we could be self funding (no further dilution). Glymab has had some serious validation.

So there are a number of valuations
17p what you can pick them up for today
24p TD's ultra conservative risk adjusted value. What people SHOULD be paying today.
60p the lowest I think I'll ever sell my shares at.
£1 what I think is eminently possible
£2 what I'd be happy with.
£8 possible but having been invested 10 years I don't want to wait another 10.

Hope you are doing well ATB.
Shame about Tukel BTH, I quite liked him.

TF,
You are right. The point I was making was it is impossible to draw comparisons. Each company will have a unique set of circumstances (both acquirer and the acquired)
But to a simple question "why isn't Scancell like Kite", the number of employees is vastly different. BTW, many leading edge companies ONLY employ "talented" individuals.
How much would LD's transfer fee be I wonder.
As I said, anything is possible but forgive me for being content with £2.

Crumbs,

When Gilead bought Kite they acquired 700 "talented" employees. Scancell have 40 employees. So on a like for like price per head valuation we would get only $650M (72p per share)

Crumbs,
No, I can't explain some of the valuations.

My approach is strictly numerical based on potential profit and earnings multiple. As stated previously, I have used the cost per patient method to forecast revenue which in theory should pick up "created markets".

In another universe, I'd be called a ramper promoting 60p to £2!
If you think that estimate is way off, you must think Trinity Delta are really rubbish!

Some great arguments put forward I must say though.

TF,
There was one yesterday - you're just being greedy now!