Member Info for RuckRover

Moonparty,
Thanks for the response. I did take silence as lack of support and was wrong to do so. For that, I apologise.
Of course, £8 is possible but this would require most (if not all) products working, being approved and a licensing deal struck. That is many years away I would have thought.

I use two methods of forecasting - one based on market size and market share. The best I can get on this is £2.36. The other is patient number and cost. This is Inan's preferred method as he believes Scancell will "create markets". Ironically, this only produces £2. Either way, I'd be more than happy with that.

I just think that 60p a share in the next few months is a more attractive investment proposition than £8 in 10/20 years - especially when you are my age!

Lofas,
No one on this board supports a valuation of £8 let alone £12.
A few days ago I specifically asks if anyone did support £8 and absolutely no one did.

GF stated "this should be north of 50p" and I agree. GF also said he agreed with Inan on "it's about the number you hold". I have challenged this view in the past but right now it all about the number you hold (or the number you can get hold of before the market WAKES UP)

The past few months have seen us bemoaning the lack of news, the failure to communicate with the shareholders. If one of us suggested that in a period of a few days we would get news of a $624 MILLION licensing deal, MODITOPE is safe and shrinks tumours, the Covidity recruitment is complete, we would probably been accused of dreaming. Well the dream is here!

We've had some pretty spectacular news releases in the past - Moditope discovery, SCIB1 data and Redmile funding but never have there beèn multiple blockbusters within a few days in my time as a holder.

The significance of the latest news seems to have evaded the market. That won't last long IMO - at some point, someone will join the dots. Over ten years ago, some were happy to pay 60p for this share. OK, so that was a daily high. But it spent 3 years above 30p.

Since then, we have more products, more advanced products, more cash in the bank and a licensing deal. Not only does this provide a potential source of revenue but gives massive validation of the Glymab platform. Who's going to argue that we are not twice as valuable today as we were 10 years ago? We should be at least 60p (2 times the 3 year average of 30p.

So I think GF is fairly shrewd in his "north of 50p" estimate.

I've not traded much the past few years but I added today.

AIMHO

Zak Mir has obviously read the RNS, understood the significance and is using it to make out his charts work!

Quite so!

Nice to hear Scancell and 23p mentioned in the same sentence. Perhaps people will start to connect the dots.

Don't forget, the TD uLtra-cautious, RISK adjusted, NVP, FULLY DILUTED valuation is 24p.

Why so low? Well they only gave MODI1 a 10 % chance of success and Glymab a 2.5% chance of success. At the time of the TD valuation, there were no concrete deals.

Well, that's all changed. I wonder what the revised TD valuation will be? 30p? Perhaps if they put that out we might get to 24p!

Just to add - the 25% is the AVERAGE of the 15 deals.
The individual percentages range from 2% to 48%. There is a Genmab deal at 19.2%

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/special-report/top-15-biopharma-licensing-deals-2020

crumbs,
I don't go along with "let's just go with the 1% " - that sounds ridiculously low to me.
I'm thinking more like 25%, so an upfront payment of $50M and another 3 milestone payments of $50M.
And is the upfront 25% of $208M or the full $624M? (so $150M)?

If you tot up the deals in the link, the value is $40B with upfront of $10B - that's a whopping 25%!
I don't think people have latched on yet to the enormity of this deal.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/special-report/top-15-biopharma-licensing-deals-2020

crumbs,

"It's not like he doesn't have his own dreams"
That's the point - we all have our own dreams.

I didn't realise the GenMab association went back that far. It is a significant point.

Crackin,

If people want to fantasise, let them - it's their money, not yours.
As Mssrs Rodgers and Hammerstein put it
"You got to have a dream,
If you don't have a dream,
How you gonna have a dream come true?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=291ET6Py6H8

RG: "The best is yet to come”.

I bloody hope so!

TF,
Thai for 5 is "Ha". So 555 is ha ha ha,
I discovered that staying in room 55 on pi pi island. Every time I gave my room number he said ha ha.
You must know that living there surely?

Ratty,
Are you going for the "most childish poster" nomination?
Can't you accept that different investors have different views and expectations. Just because people have a lower expectation, doesn't mean they hope Scancell will fail. I suspect that the vast majority of posters here are invested and 99% of those invested want Scancell to do well. I certainly do.

Konar,
I couldn't agree more.
The news itself is no more and no less than we expected. The expectation amongst most holders is that the products will be validated in trials and commercialised. Given the cancer targets, this could give rise to a valuation of around £2 - that's a 15 bagger from where we are now.

The only question mark has been how will this be funded - trials are expensive. We have had several rounds of fundraising all resulting in dilution for holders. I understand the reluctance in some quarters in the past to discuss this taboo subject but it is important. Money not only makes the world go round but makes trials happen.

The question now seems to be answered. Redmile and to a lesser extent Vulpes have provided the financial backing to get trials started. It now seems clear that the mabs will be licensed (relatively cheaply) in order to provide funds to take MODITOPE as far as possible. It can then be licensed at full price. MODITOPE has always been the "jewel in the crown".

I agree that there should be institutional interest now. Will there be enough shares to meet demand? We all know what happens when demand outstrips supply!

AIMHO

WTP,
"So that's a no then."

Apologies, you are correct. There is no one on this board who thinks we will get anywhere near £8.

WTP,

Plenty on this board are not prepared to refute it.

WTP,
"You must be feeling really really stupid making that 5p prediction though?"

Maybe so but not as stupid as predicting £8 lol!

I must admit, I was tempted to sell a few early when it hit 18p. This was not to minimise losses but I expected to be able to increase my holding by buying them back cheaper. Then I thought, hang on, this should be at least 24p WITHOUT the RNS and I really have no intention of selling ANY under 60p (which I think is quite achievable in the medium term once we get some MODI1 data)
Holding strong! :)

Ratty,
Unless I have totally misunderstood your post, I have to agree with AB here.
There are only two ways shares make money 1) the SP increases and you sell for a profit or 2) the company pays a dividend. Your statement suggests expecting either of these 2 things from an AIM share shows naivety in investing. This applies to Redmile and other institutional investors. Is that what you meant?

Ratty,
Quite right - I still am hopeful of a return on the SP

Ratty,
I have never had an expectation of income flow here.
I was rather hoping to make something on an increased SP (at some point)

Maybe next Tuesday Rodders.