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Well there is no concrete evidence to indicate the h1 target date will be missed. So I’m hopeful it will start on time. I’d also think that there are other tasks that can be started pre-approval, even the identification of possible recruits.

Tommy, I've reread it as well. As you say, you do invite discussion but the criticism that preceded it may have caused me and others to have formed a view before we got there.

Tommy, I have jumped in and supported some of your views so I hope you will forgive me for reprimanding you now.

I was slightly miffed when Ray earlier suggested we stop talking about a certain topic and only address another. You were one of the people it was directed at. Who is he to dictate what we discuss I thought. However, I did respond in (what I believe) is a respectful way, and made my points.

Then you do exactly the same thing, trying to dictate what people post about. The whole beauty of a board like this is that the contributions come from people with DIFFERENT perspectives, interests, levels of expertise and experience. There is a unique value in posts from someone who has suffered from and has been treated for cancer. You are not going to get how people FEEL from a scientific paper or reading the wall street journal nor do we get the inside track on why a treatment was chosen, refused or stopped. It is these little nuances that need to be clocked and added to the vast array of knowledge we have that is relevant to our investment here.

So let's welcome all views on all topics relevant. Disagree if you want but don't censor.

That's if CRUK staff allow me to accept the apology on their behalf. I don't know that for a fact, oops.

Thanks Ray, apology accepted!

Ratty,

"....going to be a while before we get any data.' Is that fact or opinion Tommy?"

It is fact actually. Unless you think they are going to skip exploratory, pre-clinical, trial setup and phase one and just knock some numbers out this afternoon?

Ray,

"I would hazard a guess that the calibre of CRUK's scientists and trail development teams are not in the same class as Scancell's."

Sorry, this is exactly the sort of comment that diminishes your arguments. You do not have the facts to make such a comment and even if you did you are not qualified to make such assessment. Totally disrespectful to hardworking people commited to the eradication of cancer. 10/10 on the rampometer.

Ray, you have solicited comment so here goes:

"We have been discussing the SP and the timelines and the next cash raise for what seems an age now.
I think we have done it to death.
Can we now talk about the merits of the science now?"

Yes of course, the SCIB1 trial data looks extremely promising. People are alive who we have to presume would be dead by now. The MODI data looks promising in mice, hopefully this can be repeated in humans. More promising science in the pipeline, TCR, glycans, citrullination - all patent protected

"Now, team ramp are convinced about the science but you do not appear to have the same enthusiasm,"
I think we are all enthusiastic about the science otherwise why would we invest?

"Could you tell us exactly why? Then perhaps we could have a meaningful debate about it.
After all, if the science falls down, the rest is irrelevant."
Same is true of commercialisation, if that falls down, the science is irrelevant. They are BOTH equally important, it will only succeed if BOTH succeed.

"So, the floor is yours. What exactly are your concerns?"
See above. The concerns are the same for every small biotech. I posted a link on the other BB to the annual report of BioTime who are developing immunotherapy treatment for NSCLC. In their accounts they list 150 specific, separate risks (oh dear, the "R" word). These risks cover both the science and clinical trials as well as the commercialisation, funding and IP protection/defence.

So you see Ray, it is NOT all about the science. You say we have done the funding/commercialising argument to death. The same could be said about the science. Just as we don't know where funding will come from (yes) we equally do not know whether the trials will be (as) successful in humans. Pointing at clinical data in mice is about the same as me pointing at a stack of £50 notes in a vault.

It's all speculation at the moment while we are in this lull of news. In the meantime let's be patient, civilised and balanced.

Ray,
"Just bringing a bit of humour into what has become a pretty polarised BB "

Yes I got that!

The proportions are derived from the Trinity sales figures, so we are sort of on the same page really.

Ray,

I can't work out whether you are trivialising a serious question (for most investors) or over-complicating a fairly straightforward calculation.

We have forecast sales from Trinity Delta or, if we prefer can find the market size and apply our own share %, TD reckon 17.5% royalty, take a GP, PE and factor in dilution. I get 68p for SCIB1, £1.50 for SCIB2 and £2.34 for the first 3 MODI targets.

I'm not sure if there is anything to be gained from attempted to value further down the pipeline or creating "new" markets. Surely the prospect of 6p to 70p or £4.50 is enough to tempt investors? If they aren't it is because they don't believe Scancell will see it through so talk of bigger numbers isn't going to make a difference.

AIMHO, dyor

Tommy,
what you need to understand is Inan flips from topic to topic. So you start talking SCIB1 valuations (as he DID) and he jumps to valuations for Scancell with all drugs. He also misquotes people, neither ONW, Tosh or myself for that matter "expect" £3. (£3 for WHATexactly is deliberated confused)

So let's talk just about SCIB1:
If you take the Trinity Delta sales forecast for SCIB1, apply some normal financial parameters you can get to 68p per share. In this I have allowed for 100% dilution. I think I have been conservative here, it may well be a lot more.

The "deal" confuses matters. The intrinsic value of SCIB1 doesn't change a deal just does away with the need for a cash raise, there will be advance payment of royalties, it will not affect the future, potential share price. The sales Trinity Delta estimate will be from 2024. This may slip given the indefinite delay of the combo trial.

Like you, I am not averse to dilution. It is a necessary consequence of raising cash which in turn is necessary for Scancell to progress its promising science.

When was the last time they did a deal?
When was the last time they did a cash raise?

How many deals have they done?
How many cash raises has there been?

I make cash raise favourite!

Thanks Ray. So not that relevant to probability!

I guess everyone (100%) realises that to get from where Scancell are now to a position of capitalising on the potential assets will take a lot more cash than they have now. The only question is whether it will come from a placing or a deal. I wouldn't rule out either, I guess history suggests the placing (as there have been some) is more likely than a deal (as there hasn't been one). Time will tell.

Ray, agree with most of your post 9:18
Didn't understand the reference to sample size of 4 - what are the 4?

Ray, to answer you directly, no I don’t think it has the potential to dominate in the SAME way that Microsoft did. There was a single supply of PCs (IBM) and they chose MS as the single OS supplier. In the pharmaceutical world we have 5 or 6 powerhouses, each attempting to grab a slice of the market. The cancer market is far more fragmented than the PC/OS was in the eighties with multiple cancer types further split by responder types.

Even with a modest share of the market, Scancell could provide some decent returns as I outlined earlier.

Imo!

Inan, the reason for Microsoft’s meteoric rise was IBM dominated the PC market and chose MS-DOS to run on it. I think in pharmaceuticals there is no one in a completely dominant position so difficult to draw parallels.

Crumbs, for when, 2030?

Well we do have some sensible sales numbers on the Trinity Delta Report

SCIB1 Sales £250M (2024)
SCIB2 Sales £648M (2025)
MODI1 Sales £867M (2025)

If these numbers come to fruition, could value Scancell at £3.5B. Let's hope it "does work".

Not quite Microsoft, but will do me!

Welcome to the BB.
We are all clinging to that hope!