Member Info for RuckRover

TF,

oops, as Clint says in a fistful of dollars, "No old man. Thought I was having trouble with my adding.." and I was!

Quite right 1,000 Million shares and 72% dilution

Tommy, I'm actually tired of saying this now, but I'm not in the least concerned about a placing or any form of cash raise.

The only thing that matters here is that the drugs work and work better than the existing treatments. They need to be PROVEN and the only way that can happen is through trials and trials will cost money.

IF Scancell have something unique, it will only be commercialised by spending a lot of money. Whether that money comes from a buyout, a deal or a placing doesn't really matter so long as the money comes and the results are ultimately good. I would support a raise of £15M at 1p if necessary. This gives me a chance of making a good return. If they don't get the necessary money I can write my investment off.

It would have helped if SCIB1 had been ring-fenced and seen through to commercialisation. I think at the moment, if you pumped money in hoping SCIB1 would be progressed, you might worry about funds disappearing on other research projects. I think a research arm and a clinical progression arm as two separate companies would make investing a little more targeted.

Crumbs,

"Yes was aving a larf ... not discounting a possible market raising at some point but with current sp scancell are unable to raise any meaningful amount beyond keeping the lights on for a few months past current funds running out."

Yes, I realise you was having a laugh, but it isn't that funny! It is not true that SCLP couldn't raise "meaningful" funds at this level or even lower. For example they could raise £15M at 1p. There would probably be plenty of takers. This would give a rather "meaningful" amount. The IIs would be protected to an extent by being given a chance to buy at the new low. The losers would be the PIs. It happens all the time with Biotechs as Mabel has pointed out earlier.

I'm not saying it will happen, and I hope it doesn't but you CANNOT rule it out as a POSSIBILITY.

"I agree with this - ''Pretty sure that’s not gonna happen'' but I don't get the dilution result 500% - surely the maximum dilution possible is actually 99.9% - hopefully."

Sorry, didn't do the sums or explanation properly:

To raise £10M at 1p would require 1,000,000 new shares so 258% of the existing 388M.
What you now own would be 28% of what you used to own, that is, diluted by 82%

In my "valuation" calculations I had factored in £15M raise at 4p (100% of existing = 50% dilution)
This still gives 68p per share for SCIB1 alone.

Yes of course TrialS. We were told SCIB1, SCIB2 and MODI1 all due to start this year.
Commercialisation? Some of that would be nice.
Placing at 1p? Pretty sure that’s not gonna happen. To raise anywhere near what is needed would take massive dilution, 500% or more. I would be happy with 4p so long as they GO BIG.

Great finds crumbs, many thanks.
The first link is like a who’s who in oncology.
The second shows how many avenues the products could go down, into areas we would never dream up.

It is a trivial matter to add stuff to the website, they should have someone collate all the events, papers etc and update on a weekly, if not daily basis.

If there is an EGM, I’d like to nominate crumbs as chief PR officer. He’s doing a better job single handed than those other muppets.

Morning all.

Scooby, just because something is overhyped doesn’t mean it’s not undervalued. Everyone knows Scancell will need funding at some stage, it doesn’t generate any and it spends, so a fairly obvious conclusion.

This isn’t a share to trade and make a buck in a few weeks. Either you believe it will be successful on at least one of its platforms and are prepared to invest for a few years or you don’t believe, in which case don’t invest.

C7, the model gives me some level of reassurance. If this goes below 5p I might even be tempted to buy myself!

Crumbs, the TD analysis suggests the royalty will be split 15% Scancell, 2.5% CRUK.

As SCIB2 is funded already, there may be no need to factor in dilution. This would make SCIB2 the most attractive proposition financially.

Tommy,
The £100k is total revenue alone + combination. I’m assuming sclp will get their royalty either way.
The sclp document suggests $40k per treatment so I revised this figure.

Thanks crumbs.

I did notice in the same report they are saying cost of treatment $40K per year.
Also, the targets are stage IIB onwards not just 3/4 as I had assumed.

So if I use £40K (instead of £100K), a 45% target population and target patient number of 5000 we get sales revenue (royalties) of £15.75M (call it £16M)

Using my model \(allowing for a £6M cash raise at 4p), that's 23p per share by 2025.
That's for just SCIB1 in the UK only! Thanks Inan!

Why on earth are we sub 5.5p?????

Crumbs, I seem to remember it in one of the early presentations or papers. Correct me if I am wrong please.
Is this the 20 30% with a target of 50% that Ray is on about?

Morning all,

I’d like to explore inanaco’s “simple” valuation method for SCIB1. Let’s limit it to the UK market, funded by the NHS.

According to statistics on the CRUK site....

New cases of melanoma per year..... 15,906
Number of deaths per year 2,285
10 year survival rate 90%

SCIB1 is targeted at stage 3/4 cancer. Out of the above, the 2,285 deaths were probably stage 3/4, the SCIB1 market.
SCIB1 is effective in 20% of the population = 457.
If NICE agreed to £100k cost of treatment per year this would be worth £45.7m

Assuming a 17.5% royalty to Scancell, this would generate just under £8m pounds revenue for Scancell.

My thoughts, very happy to be put right on any figures/assumptions.

Yes C7, it what happens when you have open, stimulating discussions. Atb

Thanks Ray. How does this affect revenue? The longer people live the more they spend?

Tommy,

You're far too nice!

"you are not big pharma .. or a buyer capable of buying scancell .."

You actually don't know that for sure do you?

Inan,

"and your post contains nothing that is going to help you value scancell future"

IN YOUR OPINION

Inan,

"but scancell makes it more difficult as the picture size grows again .. by adding Homocitrulline and glycans"

Will these treatments target any of the ones targeted by immunobody or moditope? In other words, will they compete?

Inan,

"as the variables are endless "

They are not, there may be many variables but they are finite and can be estimated.
It may seem complicated to you but fund managers and large pharmaceuticals will use some sort of model to work out the value of a company. They will use what if analysis to see "what if" this or that happens. They will them come to know the best case and worst case scenario. The difference between best and worst will be enormous but they have to know this.

All companies are valued on earnings - either past, present or future. Whether a buyer is prepared to pay over the odds or not will depend on other factors, there may be strategic reasons for buying or they may spot something others don't. But you can't GUARANTEE that someone WILL pay over the odds.

I'm a quite happy to explore your value enhancing efficacy theories but you will need to be a bit more forthcoming with facts and numbers and not attack every statement anyone makes.