Member Info for RuckRover

C7,

"and the priceless publicity for Scancell Holdings"

It certainly was, added nothing to the price at all! ;)

Only joking, have a great weekend.

C7, Inan,
Many thanks for the responses. I will try and crunch the numbers.

Did anyone manage to find out how much the market for triple negative breast cancer is?
I believe it will be one of the first MODI in human trials.

Ratty, you beat me to it!

Crumbs, well to get to be a biopharma itself will require a big cash raise so I can apply a dilution factor to account for that.
There a quite a few considerations, for example, if the market value for a particular treatment is worth £1b and the Scancell offering has cost advantages, that market value will decrease if Scancell were to grab a part of it.
The calculations I play with are really to show that some hefty valuations are not impossible.

£1B of revenue would equate to £2.93 per share on 388M shares
Even with 100% dilution (issue another 388M) it would be £1.46 per share.

To complete my valuation, does anyone know what the TNBC market is estimated at? I couldn't find a figure.
I have numbers for Melanoma (SCIB1), NSCLC (SCIB2) and Ovarian (MODI1).

"Ruck still didn't use his formula on the figures given by Nottingham to potential £1-2 billion value a year in sales of just 2 Glycan MaBs "

Crumbs I did see your reference to formula earlier in the week but I didn't realise it was directed at me. Where does the £1.2 B come from? What are the targets? The formula is based on market value of the target cancer type.

Do Ryan air know about this device?

Crumbs, yes I know, a bit of pre-coffee frustration surfacing.
I’m not sure what impact the ichor marketing will have on Scancell. The decision to join a trial will be based on diagnosis and suitability primarily. Do you think delivery mechanism will figure at all?

Crumbs, never mind wasting resources on “flashy” new web site, get the IND application sorted!

“ clearly a sore point”
Not at all, just that it is absolutely none of your business.

“ I won't mention it again .. “
oh you will, you can’t help yourself. You are a very antagonistic person.

Inan,

"as you have not declared a new position how could I ... "

My apologies, I didn't realise that I had to post my trades (even non-SCLP) on here. When did that rule come in?

I havent a clue, I don’t follow them that closely unlike you.

One has to question the motives of someone who brings up a share not relevant to this board and one that they are not invested in. Gloating?

Answers on a postcode please...

C7, you are correct, the 5th horseman according to most Christians is Jesus Christ. The first horse is white but is different to the fifth which is also white.

>Well the perfect person has never existed.<
Well according to some he has, see above!
ATB

Morning C7, All

Personally I feel the 4 horseman (of the Apocalypse as described in Revelation) are not really a fitting analogy to posters in general let alone any four specific individuals. Perhaps the first horse (white) is the most apt as it was bent on conquest. There are a few here trying to be top dog.

Interestingly, a relationship councillor (John Gorman) uses them to represent criticism, contempt, defensiveness and stonewalling .
Now who of us have not exhibited one or more of them on occasions?

crumbs, you may be investing on the basis of HOPE that someone will come along and pay over the odds but my strategy is to at least make sure the numbers add up. Even in a takeover situation, the buyer normally calculates the commercial worth. They may want a discount (enforce a discount if the target is struggling) or pay a premium if they need to get a foothold in the market.

If you do the maths on all pipeline products, assuming a 100% market grab, a massive GP% and no dilution you may well get near to £12. Even if the company does look like being worth £30/share it will never reach that because someone will step in with an offer of £20 and the BOD and majority of shareholders will accept. All we can hope for as shareholders is that the offer isn't 60p!

Sorry crumbs, to help you with the maths, here's the formula:

(Market value X market % X net profit)/Shares in Issue (+allowance for dilution)

Crumbs, re your 10:59

This is NEVER going to be £30 per share. I suggest you do the maths!

The SP looks a bit peaky so I may have played a blinder. Bostin!

The Bull Ring
The rotunda
Balti triangle
St Andrews
SOTV

It has now!