Member Info for RuckRover

“point being the PHD team would side with Lindy Not Mr Ruck (pfizer)”

Prof Durrant plus the phd team still doesn’t have controlling interest.

Sorry Barbel, she can’t. The IP is owned by Scancell and not by L Durrant.
However, if you are saying that all the science so far patented is not the be all and end all and that Orof Durrant is yet to find the holy grail, then you are right.

Lol, you are so funny.

Who said she was?
Have you tried spec savers?

Inan,

"Because the Director is also the Chief Scientific officer .. Lindy ... "

Don't be so naïve! The company is a legal entity and may be bought amicable or hostile. Prof Durrant does not have a controlling interest so would not be able to prevent it.

Enjoyed your cut and paste snippet though.

" I am pretty sure given where we stand share price wise at 50p, 60p, 70p a majority of shareholders would sell ....yes we all make good money but not the type of money that the "science is worth".... I think this represents the biggest risk to some of our blue sky thinkers views on valuation ..... thoughts on this our most welcome."

Tommy, I have to agree in part as it is a point I have made here many times over the past 6 years but has fallen on deaf ears. I have attempted to value the pipeline from a commercial perspective. Then people say (quite rightly) look at Kite, it is valued at what someone is willing to pay. But equally true, is it could be valued at what shareholders are prepared to SELL for. The cash raising potential even at 50p is immense.

Where I would disagree slightly....

I don't think a MAJORITY would sell out for 50,60,70p. Possibly a good chunk of the recent buyers sub 12p would as would a number of long term holders glad to get out intact or with a small profit. It would come down to the iis. Even those who bought low, have they come this far to settle for 50p? Maybe not, that's not to say £1 wouldn't be tempting though.

The other point is you make is this is the BIGGEST risk. I don't think it necessarily is, but certainly up there as one of them.

Crumbs, it would have been interesting if the company had been split, which would be valued higher now.

Thanks crumbs a very comprehensive history.
Let’s hope we can emulate some of that.

Inan,

"more than 6p .. is the only thing you have to be concerned about"

I'll be concerned about whatever I want and what price thank you.

crumbs, how long did it take Juno and Kite compared to Scancell?

Inan,

"Moditope is a "new market" it will value itself …"

OK, how much will the TNBC market be worth once Moditope has "valued itself"?
How much is NOT being spent on TNBC that would be as opposed to what IS being spent and will transfer to Moditope (if it is better)?

crumbs, we have been here before, I haven't attempted to value Kite and Juno. They are both presenting at the event you posted yesterday along with Scancell. Maybe someone from the Scancell board should ask them how they did it .

Ray,
"But isn't market share based on efficacy?"

Possibly, the better it works the bigger the market share potentially.

As for could they charge more, possibly not as NICE have guidelines as to the most they will pay per treatment (as do insurance companies in the USA)

Inan,

You posted...
15:26
because the world market for cancer treatment is worth in excess of £100 billion

15:45 so lets say from £6 billion of sales to £40 Billion of sales ... if Lindy is correct

Then
16:22
If you assume 6% market share (as per your low estimate)

not my estimate ..

Excuse me but isn't £6B (your low estimate if Lindy is correct) 6% of £100B???????

Inan,

"so what data do you want to base the values on ? "

At last you have this afternoon come up with one element relevant to the calculation - Market value and market share.
You quote a market value of £100B for worldwide cancer treatments. How much of this market is covered by Scancell drugs? You predict sales of £6B to £40B so 6% to 40% of the market. If the latter is to be believed, you must be talking 20 years plus?

If we look at the targets that could be on sales in the next 5/6 years (Melanoma, NSCLC, TNBC, Ovarian, Head and Neck) we have a global market of $37.9B (£28B). If you assume 6% market share (as per your low estimate) we get to £4.27 per share using my model.

Crumbs,
"Ruck,I don't think snake oil would get through clinical trials these days.... though you never know :)"

So long as TriGrid2 isn't the delivery method should be OK!

Inan,
" already have "

That's what you keep saying, but you haven't. I have checked you history and you have NOT explained

1) What figure you expect
2) How you have arrived at that figure
3) when you think that figure will be achieved.

So don't keep hiding behind "check my history","check my history""check my history"

I have and it is devoid of any reasoned argument as far a value goes.
I don't mind if you haven't done the calculations or are unwilling to share but please stop bleating
"check my history","check my history""check my history"

"i have assessed the value in the science if its taken forward as commercial .. to run into £'s "

If only your assessment was actually relevant rather than that of big pharma, fund managers and private investors.
We could get up to 10p lol.

It may help if you put some numbers on your "assessment" and show your workings so that your assessment could be "assessed"

"only good science becomes commercial"

I'm not sure about that. Didn't people get rich selling the proverbial "snake oil"?
Or was that good science?

crumbs, the same could be said of last week, last month, last year, 5 years ago. The IP has continued to grow and the protection more secure. It hasn't always manifest itself in the share price. In fact, the reverse is true. WWhen you think of how further forward Scancell are now than 5 years ago and then look at the share price - difficult to explain!