Member Info for RuckRover

Bunsie,
I’m not being negative at all. I trying to put a realistic valuation on Scancell in the event we SUCCEED. I haven’t considered what would happen should the trials fail.
Has ANYONE actually thought what success will be worth?

Ray,
Also, the TD valuation isn’t about Scancell taking it to market, it’s based on a 17.5% royalty.
I find the financial naivety here quite frightening.

I can’t get my head around why anyone would pay £7.88 per share for something that using accepted financial valuation criteria is worth 3.8p.
Please explain. This seems to be a common theme - ignore the intrinsic value and hope someone will pay well over the odds.

Bunsie,
Evening to you. Yes, I remember those times well. Many of us now realise that valuations at those levels were perhaps wildly optimistic. How do you explain the gulf between £7.88 and 3.8p?
Why is there a reluctance to discuss?

So do you think their 3.8p is reasonable?

Crumbs,
I was just trying to arrive at a value for SCIB1. Or are we pinning our entire hopes on an Avidimab “deal”.

What are people’s thoughts on Trinity Delta’s Current valuation of 3.8p per share for SCIB1?
High, low about right?

Inan,
How is asking a legitimate question “causing trouble”
All I want to know is how did you arrive at your £8 estimate? When do you think we will reach it?
How would you break it down across the Scancell products? SCIB1 £1, SCIB2 £2, MODI1 £5?
One way to tackle a complex equation is to break it down into manageable chunks.
So let’s start with SCIB1, it is our most advanced product, possibly making it to market by 2025.

They do have to pay for Keytruda apart from the special deal for Nottingham. Are we to continue with just one trial centre.
It was Inan who suggested we trial with Optivo as well. The trial costs are not just limited to the inhibitor drugs.
My question is, what is the relevance of Keytruda sales to Scancell’s SCIB1? We haven’t as yet done a deal with Merck. What is the potential worth to Scancell if we did?

Yes I do.
What’s your point?

The Keytruda trial?
So Scancell have initiated a combo trial to see if a checkpoint inhibitor is improved by using a vaccine. They are running this at their own expense and have chosen to use Keytruda, which they will have to pay Merck for. While this is running, they talk to Bristol Myers and initiate another trial using Optivo.
At the end of the trials, as no deal has been done, it may be that Scancell do not do a deal with either. At this point, they drop down the list and do another trial with someone else.
It seems to me that this could turn out to be quite an expensive undertaking.

So please explain to me the relevance of $3B sales of Keytruda (over all indications) to the Scancell SP?

Concurrent with what?

So if the SCIB1 combo trial is a success and Optivo wanted to do a deal, would there have to be another trial with Optivo?

Inan,
Do you not think Merck will want to do an exclusive deal for SCIB1?

Do you not think Merck will want to do an exclusive deal for SCIB1?

The small purchases made by me or anyone else are irrelevant.

The question was, what percentage of the Keytruda revenue comes from Melanoma treatment?
I think it is about 10 percent but happy to be corrected if anyone knows better?

The big target is lung cancer of course.

Is there an additional source of income from patients being treated with SCIB1 alone?
Or is the Keytruda combo the only route to market?

Inan,
If SCIB1 proves it significantly improves the outcome for Melanoma patients on Keytruda, what happens next?
Will it be given to everyone being treated for melanoma with Keytruda?
What percentage of the $3B revenue comes from melanoma treatment?
Will Scancell get a slice of this or will it be an add on charge?
Do you think the health organisations will pick up the extra charge in all cases or just a percentage?

In others words, what is the potential financial worth to Scancell?

Morning C7,

Thank you for such a measured and restrained post.
There are such a diverse range of views, opinions, emotions, expectations and personal circumstances that it is not surprising we don’t all see eye to eye!

You raise many points regarding the past few days discussions, I won’t comment on a point by point basis - I wouldn’t know where to start!

I think one of the most divisive questions we ever discuss is “how much is Scancell” worth. This becomes a very thorny topic since

No one actually can predict
There is a wide range of possible outcomes
There is a time element
There is a wide range of values that individuals would be content with.

Mix these together and it becomes an impossible debate. Some try to make a mathematical case based on assumptions, others pluck a figure out of the air based on no more than their own hopes and dreams.

Bunsie is right to challenge, after all, I do it myself. I think one of the challenges is being able to discuss the possible as well as the probable. I deal with probability all day in my job (and no, I’m not a bookie).
So if we look at the possible outcomes we could make a case for any sp price between 0p and £200.
Do I think 0p is probable? No. Do I think £200 is probable? No.
Do I think 50p is probable? Yes. Do I think it is probable by the end of the week? No. Do I think 50p by the end of the week is impossible? No. Do I think £8 by the end of the week is impossible. Yes.
Would I be happy with 20p by the end of the week. Yes. Would I be happy with 20p in five years? No.
So quoting a figure without a timescale is useless. Quoting a figure without support is useless. Quoting a figure based on personal hope is useless.

Hope you have a good week too. ATB.

Bunsie,
You say...
“ Ruck,
You really must not make statements like this please without your reasoning, ”

And yet when Inan says “this could easily make £8” with absolutely nothing to support the statement it goes unchallenged.
Seems a little one sided to me. Comments?