Member Info for RuckRover

Inan,
I’m not sure what point you are trying to make, but most of the LTHs here bought in at a higher price including you.

Crumbs,
Can you show us your workings? :)

Morning Tony/All,

You say you splashed out £18k without any research. What was it that attracted you to Scancell then?

I would recommend you do your research retrospectively so you can decide whether the investment is right for you. If it is, you may want to invest more who knows!
It is true that the global cancer market is huge, estimated to reach $200B per annum this decade. Total market size is not the be all and end all though. We have to consider questions such as:
How much of that market can Scancell actually grab?
How profitable will it be.
How much cash will be needed to progress (causing dilution)

Ray’s summary was a good start. What I would add -
SCIB1 is the most advanced product in the pipeline which Targets melanoma. Melanoma is a relatively small percentage of the Keytruda sales.
The biggest, most lucrative target is NSCLC (non small cell lung cancer) this makes up the biggest portion of Keytruda sales, over half the total. Significantly, the SCIB2 trial, being run and funded by CRUK is in combination with a checkpoint inhibitor (like Keytruda)

If you want to read a detailed case for the science and the financials, here it is all in a single report......

https://www.trinitydelta.org/research-notes/reasons-to-be-cheerful/

In the interest of balance, I have to disclose I have been invested since July 2012.

Chester,
Yes, I would class myself as on who “kind of understands” what the science does as I’m sure most of us do. I think there is a real danger of understanding it too much. How can that be? Well unless you understand ALL the alternative approaches to the same degree, you will unavoidably develop bias toward the one you understand the most. The others you will dismiss, not on the scientific merits but simply because you don’t understand them to the same degree. Even the experts don’t claim to know everything about everything.

I think Scancell have had some successful fund raised. My criticism (with hindsight!) would be they should have raised more. Most of the previous placings at way above the current SP were oversubscribed I believe. Now we are facing a placing in the 4-5p range don’t you think?

Bermuda,
Thanks for the response. I get the modi-1 story and it’s potential in the hard to treat cancer scenario. My question was how the latest research enhance s the prospects of getting to trial and being successful. Ray has given a useful answer.
I agree, getting into trial and replicating the results in mice is now critical.

Ray,
Thanks for the response. What you put is important and significant...
“ So, to this latest bit of research. As Inan pointed out, what was once thought to be a prerequisite of Moditope succeeding (the expression of MHCII on tumour surfaces) now may not be the case. The immune system finds another way of utilising the CD4+ cytotoxic TCells without MHCII being expressed). Another pretty important discovery since it possibly increases the Moditope scope.”

So this improves both the chances of success and the scope of treatment, definitely will have a positive financial impact. I’m not sure Inan pointed it out as clearly as you have here.

This is exactly the sort of connection between science and finance we need explaining to investors. I’m sure I’m not alone - am I?

Sorry, last post was in response to crumbs but welcome comments from all.

No, 2 is not a given. There may be a lot of cash consumed before 1 is proven.
Also, there is no concrete evidence that there are any “interested parties”.

It’s a shame nobody here has been able to present an irrefutable business case, combining the science, targets, market size and taking into account the risks. I guess the closest we have is the Trinity Delta report, though 17p isn’t exactly inspiring is it.

Forgive me for not joining in the mass hysteria over things like “ At the tumor site, the mechanisms for elimination of MHCIIPOS and MHCIINEG tumor cells differ”

So the only relevant questions for an investor are:
1) Does it work and
2) if it does work, will it make money.

In order to prove 1) we need trials and in order to run trials we need cash.
So when will trials start and where will the money come from.
2 critical questions that there seems a reluctance to address, hence diversion tacticsp

Bunsie,
I guess it is good news but struggling to understand the impact.
Are we saying that without this recent innovation we were not ready for trial but now we are?
Does this mean that the value of Scancell is enhanced? If so how?
In any event, surely getting modi-1 or indeed any Scancell product into the clinic is paramount?

You have to appreciate that this is primarily an investment site, not a science forum or medical forum, investment plain and simple. Whilst we all wish for a better outcome for patients, we also would like to see some return.

Bunsie,
What’s the impact of this new research on modi-1?
Will it improve it?
Will it delay manufacture?

Bermuda,
Some won’t like it but you are spot on. It had to be said.

C7,
Well no claims of astuteness here. I am sat on an investment worth considerably less than I paid, so how could that be astute?

Inan,
“just pointing out that if you consider the sp cheap ... why did you not buy more at 3.5p”

I’m an investor, not a trader.

“ Yes Mr last buy at 10p ... yawn”

So you are ridiculing me for not buying a share that in three years has only gone down?

Ratty,
I asked for some specific examples of pessimism and from your reply “it’s just an impression I get” I take it you don’t have any.
I’m fed up with being called pessimistic and negative simply for pointing out the FACTS.

“ you will need at least a million in cash to buy me out”

Well if your valuation is inflated to the same extent as your share valuation that would be £12K.
Is it a caravan?

Ratty,
I’m failing to see the pessimism you refer to. Could you be more specific?

Ciaskin, many thanks for sharing.

Apparently Bono ranks higher than Bojo lol.