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This doesn’t surprise me that the Mulan news has only hit the stock of other cinemas groups by 1-2%.

1. We need to keep in mind that the #BoycottMulan movement has been trending since 2019 because of the cast and their pro-Beijing stance which was used to highlight the riots in Hong Kong and Pro-Democracy stance against Chinese communist rule. The Mulan cast including the two leads, Liu Yifei and Donnie Yen have been vocal in their support for China and condemned.

2. It’s no secret that coronavirus has tarnished the name and reputation of China and there is a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment in the West which has concerned Disney how their movie will be received when it opens.

3. The market budget for Mulan has been enormous. They cannot re-market the movie and thus desperately need to get it out, so not to repeat it all over again. Tenet from WB in comparison spent very little on marketing aside from a teaser trailer in December 2019, thus they were able to defer the movie for theatrical release.

4. The cinema groups are taking comfort from Disney’s statement that this is a ONE-OFF that they will respect the theatrical window going forward but on this occasion given their huge losses faced by the global pandemic, they have to dual release on PVOD. I believe many particularly those with UNLIMITED cards will take advantage of seeing the movie on the big screen to immerse themselves. It will also be cheaper than forking our £30 to watch it at home with distraction.

5. This will pit cinema vs PVOD and will allow Disney to report back which garnered more sales. I personally don’t see many paying that when they can Kodi or stream it from the internet for free, which will cement it for studios that PVOD in the era of post lockdowns doesn’t stack up to cinema.

6. There are 30+ big budget movies still lined up for the 2020 slate, so enough of a catalogue to play out which I suspect will spill into 2021, I even found out Sherlock Holmes 3 is pegged for December this year which was a surprise.

1. Given this is a joint release: PVOD and Cinema it will go to address the long standing question: do you still need cinema if PVOD generates the type of money that puts to bed $40 BILLION a year in box office sales?

2. Should this tank in PVOD it will answer the experiment that PVOD doesn’t work. We saw this with Trolls 2. $100m in sales but an overall loss given the marketing and distribution costs were not covered. Further more the hype didn’t help sell the merchandise.

Given this is a one off, I believe Cineworld should continue to play the movie.

Disney imo will loose a lot of money as this will be heavily pirated and streamed on the internet.

Again, it is my belief this was intentional to avoid embarrassment given the anti Asian/Chinese sentiment that is rife in the domestic market and to an extent world.

“We’re looking at Mulan as a one-off, as opposed to saying there’s some new business windowing model that we’re looking at," said Disney CEO Bob Chapek.

This in my opinion suggests two things:

1. Disney are aware that there is a lot of anti Asian sentiment in the US because of the “China virus” as their POTUS puts it. Could this be a way of Disney avoiding embarrassment with Mulan, aware that it wasn’t going to get the type of reception it was hoping for?

2. The statement is clear. This is a one off.

We saw Cine drop 15% and then recover to being only 4% down.

Given Disney will release in cinemas as well as PVOD, and a one-off, this doesn’t suggest Disney is abandoning cinema.

Just as we suspected. The losses have been priced in. The share price went UP upon the notice that the company would still be operational and has a plan to move forward with re-openings.

Cineworld can expect a healthy price increase upon opening.

By ShorterGuys logic, he would be content tucking into some scraps on the floor over Filet mignon.

Agree with that analysis @ Moola.

This tested 34p when the shorters dumped large blocks of shared and and we have since seen small rises and drops but resistence is there.

Those seeking 20s, whilst I understand the need to find a bargain need to appreciate that funding had a big black hole in it which has since been plugged and re-opening wasn't even established.

Granted, Cineworld has 73% of it's estate in the US, the fact that international cinema has re-opened and a giant like IMAX is pledging to open 90% of it's screens in line with AMC and Regal in the US for August tells you that their re-open is going ahead.

I fully expect more movies to be bought forward such as Mulan and even Top Gun 2. Studios are waiting for the canary that is Tenet to be the first big blockbuster, after this, all the ducks will start lining up and we can expect to see the market price Cineworld accordingly.

Good post, Johny.

I went last Friday to watch the movie and really enjoyed it.

I think it's great to get balanced opinions from all sides.

I have to say, Investroid so far has called this well. Exit at 90s and back in again de-risking and like most of us long term investors, is now looking to increase his stakehold on the basis positive news on liquidity comes out on the H1 news from Cineworld.

Don't forget, that there is a wealth of companies out there including aviation which in my opinion has been oversold and is ripe for taking positions.

Thanks, DHC - I am modelling this on last years 2019 H1 results which came about this time.
I'll see if I can get in touch with IR as you say to clarify and I'll post back.

I'm very optomistic as Mooky (CEO) confirmed that, PRIOR to the additional $250m, they had sufficent liqudidy to keep them going through to the end of the year with all cinemas closed.

Thus, an additional $250m will put them in a great position to maintain operations.

This will be telling just what Cineworld's liquidity position is

Just as we suspected, the news from Kremlin has sent shockwaves across the international scene and the US are citing their vaccine will be ready much sooner than anticipated.

I don’t believe low entry prices across so many industries, like we have seen since March will be about much longer.

Source: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1318296/Donald-trump-press-briefing-coronavirus-vaccine-news-latest

*hold

Good posts @ Hosai.

There is a clear disconnect between current SP and the value Cineworld gold which will be plugged very soon once the US re-opens.

IMAX wouldn’t be opening 90% of it’s screens if it didn’t think so!

The bottom has been tested for Cineworld and there is only one way this is heading now.

Investors are seeing real value in Cineworld’s current share price and can look forward to some big gains with a little patience.

The fact that a GIANT like IMAX is supporting global cinema and showing this with 90% of it's screens opening means it is gearing up for a big rebound in global cinema.

Great piece here about IMAX employees who were quoted as saying "Oh my God – I forgot how great it was to be in a movie."

IMAX plans to reopen around 90% of its 1400 screens worldwide by the end of August, keeping the company in line with the relaunch of the AMC and Regal chains late next month as well. Nolan reportedly wants as many viewers as possible to see his 11th feature film on the giant-sized IMAX screens. Gelfond noted on the conference call that Nolan’s movies often overperform on IMAX.

You CANNOT replicate IMAX at home unless you're willing to spend a small fortune.

Source: https://www.denofgeek.com/movies/tenet-screening-draws-rave-reviews-from-imax-employees/

It's no surprise that audiences for cinemas are the highest between 15-24 at about 30% and overall, 80% of cinema audiences are under the age of 45.

The Cinema and thanks to "Eat out to Help out" scheme running this month, will see increased footfall to cinemas this month in the lead-up to Tenet.

Q: If millions of school children, as of next month (September) can be sat together, without respecting any social distance, do you think sitting in a cinema (for 90 mins on average), adhering to staggered seating, with deep cleaning undertake after each screening, is considered safe?

A: Do bears poop in the woods?

It's all about the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). You should read the Twitter feed.

Cineworld have created pent up demand to other regions in a similar way Apple have done with the release of a new iPhone.

It's about the anticipation and wanting to be part of the experience.

US Regal cinemas opening will be a huge boost to the current share price.