Member Info for RS2002

You mean the Aberdeen region which is 3.8% of the popuation of Scotland?
So 96.2% of Scotland still OPEN.

Regional lock downs are nothing news.

Sensible approach to keep the REST of Scotland OPEN.

Scotland population - 5.4m
Aberdeen = 207k population (3.8% of Scotland population)

21 July 2020 = 12,807 new cases a day
02 Aug 2020 = 5,739 new cases a day (55% reduction)

The following facts:

1. Sufficient liquidity to keep them going to July 2021 if they remained closed
2. They have re-open most of their cinemas across their territories
3. US re-open making up 73% of their estate is set for 21 Aug
4. Big blockster Tenet is being released 26 Aug in the UK and 3rd Sep in the US
5. Share price is almost 80% down from 176p (pre-covid)
6. US cases declining
7. Vaccine trials progressing and approaching end of Phase 3 trials (in the case of Russia, ready for October).
8. Demonstrating resistance to drop below 34p when further bad news is received on movie delays or changes to PVoD

News that there is a pandemic and that this is priced at a discount is believe it or not, already factored at share price of 38p.

This COULD also go UP 20-25% in 1 day very easily.

1. 70% of Capex spend suspended
2. Renegotiated leases with virtually all landlords
3. No Revex spend - employees on Furlough and use zero hour contract staff so can scale back and forth according to demand and days i.e Friday-Sun they increase staff, Mon-Thu they reduce.
4. Increased their cash position to keep them going to July 2021 in a closed capacity, not that it will be needed.
5. Avoided paying 4x the cost of Cineplex and will now just pay a termination fee of a meager £28m and SAVED BILLIONS.

Agreed, Laidback. Many have taken a position and have funds ready to top-up on the basis this is received well.
Cineworld is NOT the only company to suffer hardship due to the current pandemic.

They will need to present a roadmap for recovery in a similar manner to a number of companies which I have confidence in an established cinema player with 90 years of family history behind him to guide us through this time.

The leases haven't been paid upfront, so their current net debt (excluding future leases) disclosed was $3.5bn (excluding leases) from $3.7bn at 31 December 2018 and $4.0bn at the time of the acquisition of Regal. So they have been reducing net debt and have shaved off $500m.

As I said, if you want to factor future leases now, let's go ahead and factor future profit, as well.

At this current SP, all of the bad news is factored in.

Thus, investors are recognising the value in their investment to take them above the current share price.

They are not phased as they have invested, mostly at well under 249p so they know this is a good long term investment.

Take a look at February 2018 as a prime example of short postions

Within a SINGLE MONTH, shorts went from 4% to 14% to then reduce to 3.31%.

Source: https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B15FWH70/

Published March 2020

Financial Highlights

· Group revenue of $4,370m (2018 Pro-forma(2): $4,657m) softer as expected compared to 2018, predominantly due to the strong comparative film slate

· Group Adjusted EBITDA of $1,033m (under IAS 17(1)) (Pro-forma 2018(2): $1,072m) and 23.6% margin, up 80bps

· Integration benefits from Regal exceeded initial expectation, with estimated run-rate synergies at the time of the acquisition increasing from $100m to $190m

· Reduced Net debt(3) to $3.5bn (excluding leases) from $3.7bn at 31 December 2018 and $4.0bn at the time of the acquisition of Regal

· Declared full year dividend of 15.5 cents up 3.3%

Leases have been re-negotiated so manipulating the figures to present 8bn debt, I may as well put down forecasted revenues of $4bn now.

Source: https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/cineworldplc1/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=655&newsid=1378287

If you're an investor this won't phase you.

Why? Shorts have been much higher in the past and the share price was priced accordingly.

Feb 16 2018 = Short Position = 14.09%
Share Price = 249p

Feb 20 2020 = Short Position = 14.67%
Share Price = 176p

I hate to interrupt the circle-jerk that is going on in here but, it is worth being mindul that loan maturity for Cineworld is 2023. More than sufficent headroom to make it through the pandemic and see a vaccine and innoculation programme rolled out by each region of the world.

Their net debt is $3.4bn and they have sufficent liqudity to keep them going to H1 2021 CLOSED. Not that we expect that to be the case, given all territories are open except Americas which open in a little over 2 weeks.

I'm the same Moola, I'll watch the movie in the cinema as well.

They don't call it cinematography for nothing.

Candlestick posted this which was very clear on the matter:

“In countries where Disney+ isn't available, AS WELL as in countries where theaters are open and operating safely, Mulan will still be given a theatrical rollout.“

I also believe the anti-Chinese sentiment strong-armed Disney as well as to recoup their losses from their Disney parks.

Unfortunately, this isn't the year for movies like Mulan.

What this does mean is Labor day in the US will be able to showcase Tenet and should have a stronger reception.

The fact that all manner of negative press and news has been thrown yet Cineworld remains in the 36-39p range bodes very well for the results that are due.

I'm still optomistic that the H1 results will reveal a comforting liqudidity position that will see the share price increase into the lead-up to the US Regal (73% of Cineworld's) cinemas) opening 21 August which is a little over 2 weeks away.

We still have Tenet to look forward to and the fact that it is now being advertised on TV is also an encouraging boost to cinema attendance.

I think you're right on Sherlock Holmes 3, Laidback it is Dec 2021.

Regardless, seems the rival cinemas gave a good indication as to how Cineworld would react to this SINGLE, ONE-OFF movie from Disney.

Great news for global cinema.

Source: https://bleedingcool.com/movies/tenet-has-been-approved-to-release-in-china/

The fact that Disney is saying this is a ONE-OFF and they SUPPORT theatrical release.

Yep, I can see the same, it has recovered to a near negligible decline.

The market has priced this in and doesn’t seem too bothered given the comforting message this is a ONE OFF dual release by Disney and will allow them to spare the embarrassment of the #BoycottMulan movement supporting pro-democracy. It also mitigates the anti-Chinese sentiment that has been festering for some time thanks to inflammatory remarks from the POTUS and many in the West who appoint the blame of coronavirus to Wuhan and China.