Member Info for RS2002

Each time 45p is tested, it refused to break below as investors are recognising the long term value of this share beyond the 2-3 bagger that presents.

Theatrical exhibition cannot be replicated by streaming which has been about for 10 years+and hasn't had an impact on box office sales.

Investors are taking their position to ride this up on the Stimulus deal that is due any time soon.

GDP in the US is predicted to shrink by 0.5% more in September if it isn't achieved. That is a HUGE motivator for Capitol Hill.

That is the great thing about Rolling Credit Facilities. You have enough sight to have that in place for contingency BUT you don't necessarily draw down on it.

The fact that Cineworld also firmed up an additional $250million from a set of investors should also be recognised that investors have confidence.

Good post, Moola.

We should also recognise that UNLIMITED memberships are being activiated in the UK, Europe and US which will bring in a lot of PASSIVE INCOME. Regardless to bums on seats, Cineworld are set to take monthly subscriptions. This will ensure customers have value for money so they will attend their cinema particularly with Tenet looming and Marvel's Black Widow to draw crowds.

Tenet is the canary in the coal mine so to speak; it will be monitored closely as a case study for studios as to what demand exists during the covid era for cinema. It is very IMPORTANT.

Bodes well for Regal to open there.

Source: https://azbigmedia.com/business/covid-19-cases-in-arizona-continue-downward-trend-no-new-deaths/

N.Y. Gyms and Fitness Studios Can Reopen on Aug. 24, Cuomo Says

No news on cinemas but only a matter of time.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/nyregion/nyc-gyms-reopening.html

The reason AMC continue to go up and are now approaching 75% of their pre-Covid price is because they have declared their H1 figures and have set a roadmap removing the uncertainty for 2021 and beyond.

In time, Cineworld will do the same, so we can hold, buy on the dips that the Cineworld BoD have a good robust plan to demonstrate sufficient liquidity and an early preview of their performance, post 21 August.

This will be enough to inspire confidence in the market and the share price will react naturally.

The first court date is September 2021. You should camp out and report back. We'll let you know how the pandemic and vaccine programmes have progressed, since then and what this has meant for footfall. Deal?

"One big reason why Disney has begun to rule the global box office over the last four years is that their big event flicks tend to vastly over-perform not overseas but in North America"

"If the revenue earned by a global box office smash could be replicated without movie theaters, Hollywood would have kicked multiplexes to the curb 15 years ago. Theatrical revenue is still the driving factor for big movies."

"That Disney twice pushed Mulan with the intent of a full theatrical release before sending it to PVOD (in participating territories) implies that they are looking at this Disney+ release as a temporary solution to a hopefully temporary problem, since their dominance in domestic theaters was until recently their biggest commercial advantage.
Or... I guess they could just buy them outright."

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2020/08/07/movies-box-office-disney-vod-aquaman-jurassic-mulan/#32717c802f2d

From same article:

"It is among a RAFT of firms which have refused to pay rent during the coronavirus crisis, with companies including Sports Direct, Boots, Travelodge among which have withheld payments either partially or in full."

No secret that companies including Burger King have been outright refusing to pay rent.

Hammersons one of the largest commerical landlords in the UK has seen its rent significantly impacted as companies are being savvy either negotiating or refusing.

This means Cineworld is squeezing their cash out flow to ensure they remain liquid enough to see them through to next year.

Great posts.

Really encouraging data that bodes well for Regal and AMC reopening next Friday with Unhinged to debut.

These figures will make for interesting debate. We have our resident deramper deliberately posting box office taking for a week, full well aware that both AMC and Regal the largest chains and movie slate doesn’t kick off until next week.

If Canadian audiences are enticed, it’s a given North American’s will as well.

We should be in line for some positive movement in the share price as we approach 21 Aug and 3rd Sep for Tenet.

Institutional Investors don’t plough in when bankruptcy looms. They reduce their stake.
The investors have completed their due diligence and have recognised that this leisure stock is in for a major recovery as global vaccine developments progress.

Private investors should certainly take confidence in that.

Price rise*

Expect the market to absorb the positive news that Cineplex litigation has seen the first court date pushed to Sept 21.

We should be in for a good price risk, tomorrow.

Spot on Moola - is the experience is the same, they will just wait for the movie to broadcast on cable or regular monthly subscription streaming.

Again, we can argue the finer points of the profitability of the model, but when the studio, Disney themselves state it will be a one off, it’s a moot point.

The argument that theatrical release is to remain is won.

Disney say so themselves. I’ll take it from the horses mouth than a BB poster, any day of the week.

The cost of marketing, distribution, merchandising and other ancillary costs DEMAND that Disney make a lot more than a close to break even figure.

The model just isn’t PROFITABLE.

You need only look at Universal’s Trolls 2 which analysts claim will “never make a dime in profit” to appreciate that.

Again, Disney states this would be a ONE OFF, for good reason. They have crunched the numbers and certainly DON’T want to use this model again.

Theatrical release is far too profitable to give up.

“ Out of 4195 respondents,15.4% were ready to pay. But remaining 84.6% believed that the rent was too high and did not agree to pay.”

Source: https://financerewind.com/entertainment/mulan-a-new-poll-reveals-that-people-dont-want-to-pay-30-for-the-movie/

There is a reason Disney made it clear when they announced Mulan would be a ONE OFF for PVOD.
PVOD just won’t generate the revenue, studios have come to expect from theatrical release.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-04/-mulan-goes-on-disney-for-30-in-one-off-strategy-shift

Encouraging news that supports the re-opening of the former US epicentre for coronavirus.

I predict September, on the basis numbers remain under control, movie theatres will follow as well.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/14/coronavirus-ny-gov-cuomo-says-museums-bowling-alleys-to-reopen-in-nyc-and-gyms-may-be-next.html

Cineworld has no immediate refinancing risk with its current RCF maturing in 2023 and its first term loan maturing in 2025.
I and many other like minded investors believe attendance will be restored comfortably before this time, given the progress of global vaccine programmes.

Movie attendance over 10 years.

Fluctuations over the years and 6-10% difference.

Year Ticket Sales Total Box Office Inflation Adjust Ticket Price
2019 1,235,481,028 $11,255,234,925 $11,255,235,020 $9.11
2018 1,311,323,185 $11,946,156,764 $11,946,156,940 $9.11
2017 1,225,639,761 $10,993,991,460 $11,165,578,252 $8.97
2016 1,301,658,904 $11,259,352,764 $11,858,112,611 $8.65
2015 1,323,266,320 $11,155,138,079 $12,054,956,180 $8.43
2014 1,257,400,618 $10,272,966,196 $11,454,919,630 $8.17
2013 1,339,168,926 $10,887,446,341 $12,199,828,924 $8.13
2012 1,381,106,440 $10,993,610,207 $12,581,879,666 $7.96
2011 1,282,891,759 $10,173,334,063 $11,687,143,934 $7.93
2010 1,328,549,023 $10,482,254,025 $12,103,081,605 $7.89

Streaming is an established technology and bandwidth has opened it to the masses, both legally and illegally.

Yet, cinema attendance remains much the same and Marvel “comic” movie blockbusters have most recently enticed audiences back.

Speaking of which, Marvel Black Widow remains set free theatrical release, 6th November 2020.

@indepth, I hope you don’t mind me changing the wording of your statement.
I’d like you review it and then assess its merit.

As I keep saying, the key to ANY LEISURE INDUSTRY’s future survival and suceess or failure, is obviously the future ANY LEISURE INDUSTRY’s attendance levels and retail spend. Will they be enough ?
This is the big question, this is the big unknown. This we cannot predict accurately in the current coronavirus environment. Only time will tell.

It’s rather academic, isn’t it?

You’re debating the viability of virtually ALL industries.

As Bsinkers states, it’s about risk vs reward and appreciating the fundamentals and as an informed investor making a call of your portfolio is open to the risk and the reward.