Member Info for RS2002

Bowling in NY set to open: Handling and inserting fingers in shared bowling balls, removing shoes and again touching what could be non-sanitised areas in the process.

Schools in NY set to open: No staggered seating, no face masks, high traffic and frequent touch points, less frequent cleaning and shared materials like stationary and books, toys.

Cinema in NY not set to open: Staggered, static seating. Face masks used, cleaning after each screening.

I would say if NY can keep their cases down, with bowling and schools open, it will give a lot of confidence to cinemas opening later.

Let the share price recover with a lot of cinemas in the US open and then when California and NY reopen, it will give it the second leg up.

Twitch pants time for a lot of desperate shorters. This has been suppressed far too long and is keen to recover as is most of the market.

Sentiment and circumstances will see a huge rally coming our way.

Patience to investors. Your reward is coming.

Cinemark CEO says:

"Even at peak periods of time in a normal environment, our occupancy levels range from 20% to 30% and we can operate profitably during those scenarios," he said.

“He added that Cinemark has seen attendance as low as 10% and still was able to turn a profit.“

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/cinemark-offers-a-look-at-movie-going-post-coronavirus.html

Or it could be the fact that Cineworld are set to open a considerate number of their US cinemas in TWO DAYS TIME. Stating the rather obvious.

I think the staggered re-open strategy will do very well. We have seen a number of establishments, including fast food (McDonalds) implement the same and the demand was astronomical. Supressing availability almost always drives up the interest and of course, our good old friend, the fear of missing out. Patience is needed with Cineworld as it is artificially kept down but that leash will be released in just a matter of time.

@Damo - thanks for posting and of course your September is a typo. These are AUGUST dates.

Couldn't agree more.

This petty individual is consumed with "bumping" his thread, often replying to his own previous comment.

The fundamentals don't lie.

Let Regal, Cineworld open and if the response is anything like Canada has seen, postive media coverage will follow.

This will reflect in the SP.

Given NY was the epicentre and is doing so well, many are citing that the southern states never saw a second wave, it was merely their first exposure to the first wave which was contained for some time.

Trump knows his candidacy is hinging on a vaccine this year and he is pushing for November.

For now we need to continue seeing a decline in US numbers and some phase 3 data that is due September.

Encouraging news that Warner Bros U.K. want to keep Bill&Ted “in Cinemas only” and defer the PVOD release.

Time will tell if the same approach is taken for the US, but, appreciating international box office takes 70% of revenue they may defer PVOD globally.

I imagine Warner Bros are watching Tenet closely as are other studios.

Don’t be surprised if more studios don’t bring their titles forward or also reaffirm their theatrical window, as well.

Source: https://www.filmstories.co.uk/news/bill-ted-face-the-music-will-be-cinema-only-in-the-uk-it-seems/

Two days from opening 73% of its estate, who can blame you?

The media coverage no matter how mixed WILL result in a positive footfall if Canada is anything to go by.

That would certainly influence their opinion and downgrade which should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Morgan Stanely act as advisor for Regal, 2017: https://www.paulhastings.com/news/details/?id=9cb0ed69-2334-6428-811c-ff00004cbded

HSBC act as advisor for Cineplex, 2019: https://www.paulhastings.com/news/details/?id=9cb0ed69-2334-6428-811c-ff00004cbded

Lastly, Morgan Stanely had their 2018 stake at 3.0%, having previously held a stake below a notifiable level in 2018.
The stock was trading 0.2% lower on Tuesday at 256.40 pence per share.
Source: https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1528208805546852100/morgan-stanley-ups-holding-in-cineworld-after-transaction-(alliss).aspx

Now they have acquired an ADDITIONAL 1.84% to take their holding to 5.39%

Once the US markets open, we should see this sail above 50p

Indepth, at this point you "may" as well tell me what you're having for lunch. It will add more value to this thread.

Fundamentals don't lie.

1. Cineworld/Regal to open in THREE DAYS time (Friday 21 August)

2. Tenet set for 26th August release in Europe (including U.K.), Asia (including China) and US on 3rd September.

3. New Mutants re-iterated for August release for UK and US.

4. Arizona, Florida and Texas US trouble states Covid cases declining.

5. Re-open of Cineworld, UK and US is making way for UNLIMITED membership to be re-activated and PASSIVE INCOME into Cineworld's pockets.

6. Continued vaccine and treatment developments and trials emerging and POSITIVE data due nex tmonth (September 2020).

7. Fitch removed the Ratings Watch Negative (RWN) and said Cineworld have alleviated their short term liquidity concerns. They have enough cash to July 2021 if they remain closed. They said they set Cineworld on negative because of the uncertainty of Coronavirus, which is something all industries face, but acknowledge the rapid recovery they can take. Cineworld has a B grade against it which has a default risk of 4-10% and loan maturity isn’t due until 2023. More than enough time to see a vaccine in place and global economies to recover never mind Cineworld.

Instead of one liners like "maybe" or "not sure", can you share something with technical analysis like I have?

Before you dig out that Fitch score again, my response is:

Debt worries have been MITIGATED.

Debt may be Grade B on the Fitch scale but that is it - it's debt. Investors aren't trading debt securities so the grade B (like Rolls Royce btw) has a default risk of 4-6%, so 94-96% positive outlook for their debt, again from a private investor who is trading equities securities by way of stock purchase is not fazed by this.

Lenders are SO CONFIDENT in Cineworld they INCREASED their ND/EBITDA ratio from 5.5x to 9.0x.

Cineworld passed this test in 2019 at 3.4x SCORING 62% HIGHER than they needed to. No surprise that lenders were willing to relax this to 9.0x this year.

Cineworld will PASS their debt covenant test this December 2020 with ample room to spare.

The next test will be July 2021 at 5.5x and given the progress of a global vaccine and the V recovery that global markets are prediciting, Cineworld is projected to meet this covenant test and pass it too.

AMC Entertainment's debt score?

Cineworld = B
AMC = B

Now given AMC has recovered to about 75% of it’s pre-Covid price, Cineworld in comparison is at 25% of it’s pretty-Covid price.

Why is Cineworld priced at ~50p given it has mitigated so much risk.

Answer: OVERSOLD.

If you want to sit on the sidelines you are free to do so, cheaper entry points are LONG GONE.

Investors are getting onboard to ride this back up to £1+ which can come within a matter of days given our proximity to the US cinemas re-opening in THREE DAYS TIME.

Current CINEWORLD GROUP Probability Of Bankruptcy = 7%

So a 93% Probability of SUCCESS

Ignore the de-ramper, he's desperate.

Source: https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/CINE.L/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

IG says 20p because they are very nervous as a spreadbetting outfit.

Look at the consensus: https://www.ig.com/uk/shares/markets-shares/cineworld-group-plc-CINE-UK

"92% of client accounts are long on this market"

Am I responding to a BOT?

See post @ 1001:

"Why is Cineworld priced at ~50p given it has mitigated so much risk.

Answer: OVERSOLD."

Attendance to return a profit?

“Even at peak periods of time in a normal environment, our occupancy levels range from 20% to 30% and we can operate profitably during those scenarios,” he said.

He added that Cinemark has seen attendance as low as 10% and still was able to turn a profit.

Profit at 10%?!

Incredible

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/cinemark-offers-a-look-at-movie-going-post-coronavirus.html

Debt worries have been MITIGATED.

Debt may be Grade B on the Fitch scale but that is it - it's debt. Investors aren't trading debt securities so the grade B (like Rolls Royce btw) has a default risk of 4-6%, so to put that into perspective a 94-96% positive outlook for their debt - again from a private investor who is trading equities securities by way of stock purchase is not fazed by this.

Lenders are SO CONFIDENT in Cineworld they INCREASED their ND/EBITDA ratio from 5.5x to 9.0x for December 2020.

Cineworld passed this test in 2019 at 3.4x SCORING 62% HIGHER than they needed to. No surprise that lenders were willing to relax this to 9.0x this year.

Cineworld will PASS their debt covenant test this December 2020 with ample room to spare.

The next test will be July 2021 at 5.5x and given the progress of a global vaccine and the V recovery that global markets are prediciting, Cineworld is projected to meet this covenant test and pass it too.

AMC Entertainment's debt score?

Cineworld = B
AMC = B

Now given AMC has recovered to about 75% of it’s pre-Covid price, Cineworld in comparison is at 25% of it’s pretty-Covid price.

Why is Cineworld priced at ~50p given it has mitigated so much risk.

Answer: OVERSOLD.

If you want to sit on the sidelines you are free to do so, cheaper entry points are LONG GONE.

Investors are getting onboard to ride this back up to £1+ which can come within a matter of days given our proximity to the US cinemas re-opening in THREE DAYS TIME.