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Great post.

This is the canary in the coal mine, studios have been watching.

I fully expect Hollywood studios to BRING FORWARD movies pushed to later dates, forward if we can continue to see US numbers decline.

Remember, 80% of US Regal cinemas can open according to state instructions.

The "Green Shoots" in global cinema is happening and Cineworld will be joining that recovery.

Paul Dergarabedian (Comscore) sees everything returning to form. “I DON'T think we’re going to see a complete shift to streaming… I just don’t see how you JUSTIFY big budgets for big films that people WANT to see in the THEATER. The longer this drags on, where the number of screens are limited, studios will have to rethink their ability to earn back dollars. But when theaters return to full operation the PRESTIGE, EXCLUSIVITY and EARNINGS POWER of THEATRICAL EXHIBITION will remain an important part of any studio’s decision-making process.”

I also particularly like this quote, 2021 is going to be HUGE = HUGE REVENUE with concession sale up-selling.

"2021 is going to be a very dense year for film releases. Due to the many delays, films will be sharing many close release dates. For studios, this may be a bummer: sharing more the box office than they’re used to. For audiences, it’s going to be pretty FANTASTIC. At least for those of us who don’t mind WEEKLY theater visits. BLOCKBUSTERS will be coming out BACK TO BACK."

Source: https://www.hollywoodinsider.com/post-covid-19-movie-theaters-culture/

Love this quote:

Cineworld replied, he said, and told him the cinema was "not viable" due to the "rent requirements".

Cineworld have completed a financial assessment on profit and loss and have driven a hard negotiation with their landlords.

This is such a teaser when we get the next RNS that confirms negotiations with landlords has taken place.

What a fantastic post.

Great find.

This CONFIRMS that Cineworld BoD have been aggressive in their negotiations with landlords and have driven down their rent even when they open.

I am even MORE OPTOMISTIC that we are going to see a BIG REDUCTION in the cash burn when the figures are announced in September, well AFTER the US is back up and running.

Cineworld are about to open up 73% of their INCOME generation. This is the BIGGEST news right now for Cineworld.

Nextflix, take-over/buy-out is just speculation right now.

We should see a fantastic gain in the coming days leading to 21 August

A lot are touting up some threads asking about the news on Netflix, this is just rumour.

The real reason for the rise is the fundamentals and the market absorbing this into the share price and value of Cineworld.

1. Cineworld cinemas operate a profit at as little as 20-25% capacity and are on course to open all their territories before the close of this month.

2. Face masks worn is encouraging as it promotes the government's message and mitigates the risk of further closure.
In line with government guidelines, all customers will be required to wear face coverings whilst visiting our cinemas from Saturday August 8. They can however be REMOVED to consume food and drink (a great up sale for concession sales, you will agree). Source: https://www.cineworld.co.uk/static/en/uk/blog/cineworld-cinemas-reopening-FAQ-frequently-asked-questions-coronavirus-covid-19

3. Schools re-open next month September, millions of children sitting for 6 hours+, side by side, no social distance or masks and frequent touch points vs cinema viewing in staggered, static seating with frequent cleaning and controls is a lot safer.

4. Debt may be B grade but that is it - its debt. Investors aren't trading debt securities so the grade B (like Rolls Royce btw) has a default risk of 4-6%, so 94-96% positive outlook for their debt, again from a private investor who is trading equities securities by way of stock purchase is not fazed by this.

Cineworld will PASS their debt covenant test this December 2020 with ample room to spare.

5. Shorts are nothing new, in Jan 2020 this year shorts were 14% and share price was 164p (4 x the current SP).

6. Tenet the BIG Blockbuster of 2020 is to screen in ~2 weeks

7. Cineworld US (73% of their estate) is to open in NINE DAYS and will ACTIVATE 300,000+ subscriptions, each paying upwards of $23/month

We have seen this move back quickly - it was just the increase in US virus numbers that caused it to go down. Now they are defeating the virus and controlling their numbers, value is being re-instated.

1. US numbers declining
2. Vaccine news break-through

Previous movement in just FOUR (4) trading days

22 May 2020 = 58p
26 May 2020 = 69p
27 May 2020 = 77p
28 May 2020 = 102p intra-day high

Any news on buy-outs is now just an ADDED bonus.

Don't let the new threads appear with the new of a 2pm time for some Netflix take-over bid FOOL you into falling into a tree-shake they so DESPERATELY want to concoct.

I'm hearing news on the wire that one of them forgot to put the tea-bag in when making the tea!
Scratch my last sentence in the earlier post.

They are a lost cause.

Debt worries have been MITIGATED.

Debt may be Grade B on the Fitch scale but that is it - it's debt. Investors aren't trading debt securities so the grade B (like Rolls Royce btw) has a default risk of 4-6%, so 94-96% positive outlook for their debt, again from a private investor who is trading equities securities by way of stock purchase is not fazed by this.

Lenders are SO CONFIDENT in Cineworld they INCREASED their ND/EBITDA ratio from 5.5x to 9.0x.

Cineworld passed this test in 2019 at 3.4x SCORING 62% HIGHER than they needed to. No surprise that lenders were willing to relax this to 9.0x this year.

Cineworld will PASS their debt covenant test this December 2020 with ample room to spare.

The next test will be July 2021 at 5.5x and given the progress of a global vaccine and the V recovery that global markets are prediciting, Cineworld is projected to meet this covenant test and pass it too.

If you want to sit on the sidelines you are free to do so, cheaper entry points are LONG GONE.

Investors are getting onboard to ride this back up to £1+ which can come within a matter of days.

The are just ASSOCIATES out of universary working for a capital fund.
They have two jobs:

1. Get the tea round
2. De-ramp

Apparently the make a good cup of tea, so I'm told.

No one wants to sell a £1m house for £550k. No one wants to be out of Cineworld right now.

Many missed out on the 40s this morning. They are LONG GONE.
Don't say goodbye to the 50s before we break 60s.

Once Cineworld re-open their US estate - remember, 73% of their total cinema we can expect a significant INCREASE.

The article talks about the green shoots. The ducks are all lining up.

1. US Cineworld opens 21 August just NINE days from today.
2. Tenet launches 26 August UK and ROI
3. Tenet launches 3rd September US
4. Contiuing DECLINING US numbers
5. Schools re-opening in September UK and US
6. US Stimulus due any time now
7. Vaccine news breakthroughs due any time now and Russsia already have one approved

There isn't much time left to invest in global markets and leisure and Cineworld present an absolute BARGAIN at current prices.

We can firmly set our eyes on £1+ in the coming days or weeks.

Looking to close blue, I'm wondering if we close at 58p or 60p+

If the shares do go 150p upon the buy out, you can fully expect them to carry on with an increase.
The dividend could be north of 15p/share. So just imagine owning the shares at 50p would net you a 24% yield.
I'm sure many investors have property portoflios and the would love a 24% yield if they could get one.

They are a resilliant group and they don't want to be at home with a cup of tea and a blanket.

Cineworld can expect to see a large demongraphic wanting to wach Tenet and Hollywood studios are watching them as the canary in the coal mine. I can expect a lof of movies being BROUGHT FORWARD on the outcome of the success of Tenet.

We already have Marvel's Black Widow and DC's Wonder Woman 84 lined-up for this years big blockster.

@DHC you had a great list of movies coming out this year, care to share?

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/296240/age-and-gender-of-the-cinema-audience-uk/

Won't be long now. FTSE is UP.

9.0x ND/EBITDA test in December means Cineworld will EASILY pass their debt test.

The markets are fully anticipating a global vaccine programme BEFORE July 2021 so Cineworld have really played this well.

Credit to the BoD they have demonstrated some excellent negotiation with lenders to see the ND/EBITDA increased to 9.0 as it has taken the PRESSURE OFF.

Everyone is sick of being stuck at home.

They want to go out and EXPERIENCE life and enjoy it.

The summer months are just TOO HOT to stay in doors.

Would you rather enjoy a movie on a 42" tv with 30 degree heat or go to lovely air conditioned cinema (with excellent filteration btw) and enjoy a move on a big screen with big sound and entertainment.

It's a no brainer.

As expeted, 40s was a tree shake and are now HISTORY.

How long we remain in the 50s? I can see us moving to 58p by close of business.

Tomorrow we can take on the 60s and the closer we approach the opening of Regal Cineworld, just 9 days away, the media hype and speculation is going to be enormous.

AMC are targetting their re-open the same time as well.

Exciting times for Cineworld share holders.

@Bhargav Cineworld paid an incredible dividend of 12p in 2019.

The dividend is currently suspended but once it is resumed, I can foresee many making the original investment BACK and enjoying a very LUCRATIVE return year on year.

To put that into perspective, if you have 50,000 shares you could see a yearly return on those shares of £6000 based on a dividend of 12p a share.

When you deprive BILLIONS of something like global theatre/cinema, they will want it MORE.

The demand for US Cineworld (Regal) is going to be incredible as they watch the international audience enjoy Tenet before them.

Come 3rd September, they will be raring to get in and enjoy it.

Source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/phase-4-movie-theatres-personal-care-home-manitoba-1.5663382