Member Info for Roydon1

Copper hit $3 this morning for the first time in 2 years
Will it bounce down off This resistance line or carry on upwards ?
Let’s wait and see !

Morning Causal,
Glad you are still around, hope you are well !
Yes, I thought the same , why Copper is up and Kaz is down , doesn’t make sense !
So if Copper was down 2% , then what Kaz would be. ?

Rastuss : No. I didnt know, I am usually interested in the TA aspects, but I also find the list very interesting, specially the individuals names, also didnt know that Credit Suisse hold 16.2 % !
Also very interesting that the top 10 share holders own 90.79% of all the shares
So the rest of the share holders including the retail investors like us own only 8.9% of all the shares !
I wonder if this would make the share price more stable, or more volatile ?

Rastuss : thanks very much for the info

Rastuss : Yes, I can see the BIG Elephant in the room, even without any reading glasses :))

Any one knows what are they ?
Does the list have to show any share holders above 3% ?

JP2000 : Thanks for the info, but there is a question here :
Why the net debt is compared to Dec. 2019 ?
It should be compared to Jun 2019 ?
Just wondering !

Rastuss : Sorry, I missed your post you sent on Sat., to be honest, I don't have that much interest in following KAZ news as I used to before !
Something just caught my eye reading their Half Year Report :
Borrowings is 3,898 Millions from 3,299 last year
That is an increase of about 600 Million !
Net debt1 is 2,797 millions from 2,560 last year
I am not an expert on accounts, but to my simple mind, IMHO, it looks like more debts
Am I right ?

Rastuss : your question about pulling out or not is a good question, and a difficult one to answer !
If it was me, then before I commit myself into such a cost, I would make carful calculations, but on the other hand,, and from my experience on a very small scale when I was renovating my house, there was an initial calculation and a budget, but then many surprises sprung out as the project progressed, such as some plumping had to be completely re-done because it was too old but we didn't know about it until the Bathroom was stripped, then the roof needed complete renovation, and so on .
This is just an example of a budget inflating after starting because of hidden costs, and if you have committed yourself and started, then it is very difficult to pull out, and the only solution will be to borrow more money to finish the project, and in this case, it might leads to more borrowing and more debts !
Another example, The High speed railway project in the planning in the UK , the price keeps going up and up , I think it is now around 100 Billion , and I don't think the price will stop there, also there will be delays in time in all these big projects.
So, unless you are prepared for extra costs, and can support them , also support the time delays, then you are in trouble !!

Specially in that deep frozen environment, the whole place including the bay is frozen half the year or more.
First , how they going to build all this infrastructure there from scratch and how much the cost will be under these challenging conditions.
Secondly, how you will maintain the logistics of shipments for the supply of LNG (for power) and copper ore in and out of this place ?
These are important questions that need answering before committing to such a massive scale project.

Rastuss:
I also tried to see this location on Google maps , but no result !
Google asked if I wanted to look at “Google Search” , then it comes up with several results , just a repeat of the news.
The interesting thing is that the reports call this “A new Proposals”
I thought this was something agreed in the initial talks , and we all read the news about the Russians providing power and infrastructure.
So now , What is the “new Proposals” Means. ?
I am not sure !
I would imagine , building a complete new power plant and infrastructure for a road and a new port is not going to be cheap, specially that the location is in the so called “ Sub Arctic “
Maybe anyone with more knowledge can explain ?
I look forward to learn more when they provide more updates.
GLA

Auto1,
Hope you are well, long time no seen !
I thought you went to BHP !
What your Elliot Wave Model says regarding Market Correction ?
I am also out at the moment, and I think a chance to jump in might be on the way soon .
GL

I fully agree with you, Metals had a great run, and as you said, it is time for a breather
I think for whoever want to jump in, there is a chance coming, a sort of a timed window before things start to move north again.
As you mentioned, LME stocks are low, so this will put an upward pressure on prices.
GL, and All the Best

I dont think this is the only reason
Look at the dollar and Copper between 30/7 and 3/8
The dollar went up the same , but copper went down only from 2.90 to 2.85
Today it is down from 2.91 to so far 2.78 , and still sliding.

Copper is hammered , down 4% as I write , I really dont know what causing this sudden and big slide !
It could be a correction, as it went up too far too fast, and in this case we might see a 10% down to around $2.5 - 2.6
IMHO, I think KAZ will follow with a correction too ( with a "3 :1" ratio) , I would say to 450
I am just looking at the "Straight Line" relation, and extrapolating the figures.
Lets wait and see what will happen
Monday should be interesting !

Tucson : I am much better, thank you very much :)

I thought the Russians were providing the electric power with that floating nuclear power station !

Kazakhstan implements second lockdown after COVID cases surge

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-kazakhstan/kazakhstan-implements-second-lockdown-after-covid-cases-surge-idUKKBN2430T2

I wonder if this is will have an effect on the Copper production at KAZ, and by how much !

OK, my take on today SP movement:
It did slide down to almost touching the 50MA on the daily chart, then it magically, and thanks to the Yanks, it bounced up again to close at 432.
I was surprised to see that afternoon bounce up, so it live to fight another day !
I think the SP tomorrow will mainly depends on the direction of Copper, which IMO , I think will slid further down from now until tomorrow morning, because it went up too high to quickly, and because of changes of sentiment, virus second wave fear ect..
If copper slide down further , the KAZ will kindly follow, and if that means crossing down the 50MA line , then the move down will be strong.
So, lets see what will happen to copper until tomorrow.
I might be wrong of course, so please DYOR.

GLA

Hi All,
As per my previous posts, KAZ SP is now sliding down further on the Daily Chart, past the Trend Line and the important 200MA
It is now just setting above the 50MA (420) , and if it drop down pass it, then it will be a confirmation of further slid, IMHO.

Lets wait and see when the Yanks Markets open, at the moment the DOW Futures are down more than 2%.

GLA

KAZ is now diving down deeper passed the lower edge of the trend line.
Tomorrow will confirm if this is just a blip or the beginning of a reversal trend.
If confirmed, then I am afraid it will be a slide down to around 300, IMHO
GLA