Member Info for rosso123

Pis being prompted to sell on the cheap. Meanwhile Mr Big scoops up batches by the million. Mr Millions obviously wants to be first one over the precipice when the sp hits zero. Really?

No official reporting from Newcrest, but I understand that GGP will be releasing the latest updated growth drilling data from an ever-expanding Havieron resource. The sp is pushing North, seemingly in anticipation of another in the series of excellent results publications.

A lot of growth drilling to be reported. Could be very interesting if Hav continues to expand in several directions.

So presumably this means that Weds evening's forthcoming drilling update has no bearing on FMV proceedings.

Sucker peeps in on the hype. 7m tcf gas turns into "no commercial hydrocarbons found." AIM garbage stock. Timber .....

Valmin Code refers to a valuation date agreed by the parties. This is obviously important as the resource is increasing rapidly in value as each quarter passes. So, what date has been agreed?

If this was a car up for sale, NCM are likey to propose a trade value price. Anyone who has traded in their car using the likes of "webuyanycar.com" will be well aware that the first and possibly final offer was a rock-bottom cash price tempting to nobody other than a desperate seller. That's not FMV. Neither NCM or the car dealer are under any obligation to offer FMV. FMV is the eventual agreed-upon price, similar to deals done elsewhere, taking into account conditions and circumstances.

To establish FMV for the 5%, certain factors need to be priced in. In the case of Havieron circumstances, they all add value to the asset. Eg capex, the proximity of Telfer, the time lapse to production, the growth and corresponding value over a period of time, etc. Similar deals elsewhere should be considered, where neither party was pressured to sell/buy.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fairmarketvalue.asp

Not easy to value the asset being sold. A series of factors must be taken into consideration. What an asset is worth at a particular moment in time is not its FMV. For example, NCM may offer a such a valuation as at Feb 2021 measured acc to "indicated reserves" at price of gold in the ground. That being the case, you'd be looking at around $30m. But that is not FMV.

"Growth Drilling – Additional 40,000m of growth drilling planned to June 2022"

Next drilling update is going to be interesting. Scheduled for next week?

EUA on the risers leaderboard. Pretty much proving that EU sanctions on Russia are irrelevant to the likes of EUA, POG, POLY.

Bag of tricks being used in order to eliminate the mass of pis holding here. Fundamentals are sound, mcap is clearly undervalued based on assets. Wherever there is a large % of pi holders, the game will be played out. Far more worrying is when the sp is hyped up eg here into the high 30s, because any rational investor can foresee a pull back. When it is the other way round, pis are being sucked out, driven out by a relentless sp fall. When sentiment is low and fundamentals are good, do not sell. Unfortunately that is pis, in the main, do. The thinking is "fuk this for a game of soldiers, I'm off".
If you thought 15p was a bargain top up price, how about 10P?

I prefer the Swychoff Method. Stop monitoring the falling sp. Come back in late summer.

Possible. Short term groans. An unacceptable arrangement.....

.... Unless it was somehow linked in to developments elsewhere, with NCM stepping in to guarantee certain funding for Scallywag, Rudall and the next

Start thinking about a more complex deal whereby both sides recognise that the main asset has an evolving and rapidly increasing valuation. As such to pin down a FMV is like trying to nail jelly.. It can't be done, partly because of the "open in all directions" means that the prospects still remain unknown.

That rules out a straight agreed cash offer for the 5%. Instead, both parties are going to have to think out of the box. The first step is to write off the $50m loan, giving GGP a free carry on Hav. The second step is to revise the agreement in such a way that the increasing value of Hav is taken into consideration. In other words, GGP does not get a fixed payout for the 5%, be it $150m, $300m or whatever.

Instead, NCM would release certain payments over say a 2-year timeframe, reflecting the ongong FMV. Such a deal could be tied in with proposed new jv agreements for developing the 2 other main licences in Paterson which are presently 100%-owned.

In such circumstances, cash to GGP wouldn't be a straight fixed sum. It may entail a placing to shore up the coffers. Lets dare to say 10p. Every 100m new shares going out at that price raises £10m. This would explain the horrifying drop which is sending the sp ever nearer single figures.

Just a thought. Because we are into a 6-month delay over this 5%, and the huge contradiction remains. Hav gets bigger as GGP sp gets smaller, which is making no sense and pi55ing us all off.

Meant for GGP. But same principle applies here.

Big money at stake. Likes of JPM will pull out all the stops (and literally) to optimise their return. Whose head is on the block next? Paddy G at a guess, already on a yellow for daring to sound positive.

Engineered drop, panic sells, sp drip drip. Inverse relationship between Co. valuation, as measured by sp, and Havieron. What's it all about? Simple really, a shorter big boy instructs the mms, "Get me 3m in the 10's lads". And guess what, those lovely mms, and others, dip into their bag of tricks. Sellers are in a process of being robbed. Legalised theft

JPM buy back their 60m for a mere £5m, making a substantial gain on their short.

I buy 12.5k shares for every £1000 I have available. At 16p, I can only grab 6.25k

When, not if, the sp heads back to the mid-20s, I benefit from having added more shares. Simply a case of be patient and keep taking the opp to top up.
In the end, I'll finish up holding 3x the amount of shares that I thought possible.

Why would someone sit here 12 hours a day? Such ppl are employed by the likes of JPM and others to flood the board with hundreds of msgs prophesying doom. Paid at 50p a throw, with an additional 10p for eliciting each response. Tasked to have the bb focused around negative sentiment, depress the sp, and encourage pis to exit. Every reply plays into his hands.