Member Info for rosso123

Hardly surprising that McDade and Cloke have loaded up

I was expecting to see 500m being placed at 10p, so the placing comes as no real surprise. Banks want to see this before stumping up their whack. Basically this latest move establishes a solid floor, from which the Co. can progress. Seriously big projects like Sirius Minerals have proved disastrous due to predators moving in to wipe out existing shareholders and grab the asset at bargain price. That kind of scenario risk has just been eliminated here, possibly much to the chagrin of Newcrest who maybe thought they could perform a "rescue" act aka steal Hav or GGP itself.

Whilst a few pis are disappointed to see the 8s, and shorters being well rewarded, the big picture is that Hav is a likely 20m oz monster, giving GGP's 30% a valuation into the billions. Notwithstanding the other licences. SD has set up the funding, we have security and certainty for the medium term which takes us into 2024 production.

Something unsavoury about buying something for $60m, then selling it straight back for $85m. Basically it's the rich stealing $25m from the relatively poor. Pulling a fast one makes for a frosty relationship. Not a good thing for two partners working together to develop an asset.

Prepared to offer $85m to keep GGP stake in Hav at 30%. He must have known that there'd be no problem getting his hands on that money.

Furthermore, if NCM had accepted that, GGP would have around $10m or so left from the loan to take them up to FS.

After that, SD still has to find another $73m to make up the shortfall for Hav development. In fact, it'll be more than this due to the 5% being retained, + inflationary pressures. Call it $85m. He must be well aware of this.

Offering $85m, then on top another $85m to find. Starting to look like SD has been busy convincing a consortium of banks to lend just short of $200m. Despite the economic climate, these kind of deals are still going ahead. Others are being shelved. It depends on the value of the project in the eyes of the lender. Eg HZM had no issue raising $300m+ recently to commence nickel mining. If a Tier 1, near-production, ultra-low cost gold/copper mine in a safe jurisdiction isn't good enough, I don't know what is.

Little doubt that the finance is going to be sorted by an astute CEO. The uncertainty among the market is dragging the price down towards 9. Just ahead of the fog clearing, the shorters will be buying back. Expect a rapid rise in the sp, consolidated by forthcoming FS, to give a sensible valuation to this Co.

Single digit figure on the way. Smart response is to hit that buy button. Brief opp to load up on the cheap.

4.2bn becomes 4.7bn. Who cares when we are looking at a potential 20m oz resource in just one asset?

If it came down to 500m being placed at 10p, I wouldn't have any issue with £50m being raised this way

Short-term sentiment negative due to potential funding issue + shorts hanging over us. If punter traders gamble 100k shares on a sell at 10.5p with a view to buying back at 9.5p who can blame them for taking advantage. LTH's, on the other hand, take a medium term optimistic view and hold through the dips. If pis want to play the market, good luck to them.

With the Hav Facility B loan taking us through to FS, I trust in SD to see us right. Just don't rule out that 9.5p to let in the traders and shorters.

Betting on inflationary pressures driving up Hav costs. SD is going to have his work cut out raising up to $150m. If NCM come out with an announcement over timing, ie delaying first production until late 2024, sp is going to take a further dive. JPM crooks will be well are of this, hence 100m shares taken on loan with a view to single-figures buyback. Also puts us at risk of Sandeep coming back with an opportunistic attempt to "rescue" GGP by providing cash to take the remaining 30%. Predator lurking. Call it scaremongering if you like, but the above is a distinct scenerio. We put our trust in Shaun to get us through a pre-FS sticky patch. Don't be surprised if the sp dips below 10 but ,as SD says, the shorted stock has to be bought back at some point. At which point, and funding confirmed, we'll be back mid-20s. Sept could be rough, tho. Hold for the big gain later in Q4

20m oz at £1k per oz margin means Hav is going to generate $20bn profit over time. 5% of this is a cool one billion dollar gain. And SB is saying it is not worth shelling out $60m. A 16x return doesn't meet his hurdle. This is madness.

SB decision is so incredibly short-sighted. Keep the cash to appease disgruntled shareholders via dividend?

Potential 20m oz of Au equiv. gives Havieron a true full value of several billion pounds. No wonder SD is delighted to be able to hold on to 30%. Seems too good to be true. Hard to believe that the senior party is content to go along with 70/30 jv when, in time,there's a fortune even in just 5%. I can't believe, with all other factors built in, Telfer, infrastrucrure, jurisdiction, NCM are not going to simply give up on grabbing extra. Everything has a price.

Not at all. NCM will be back shortly to try to take us out. Don't say you weren't warned. Watch and wait.

The goal posts have been well and truly moved. GGP won on several points today. Not having to repay the Facility A and B loans until production. Stet at 70% does not give NCM more control over Havieron. Not being ripped off on the blatant Unfair Market Undervaluation. Confirmation of 6.5m oz gold equiv, based on cut-off Nov 2021, means considerable upside for MRE2. The $85m offer indicates SD is well set to go for the $100m+ debt finance required.

The only real potential downside I foresee is that of Newcrest turning predator for the 30% of Havieron or indeed the whole Co. in a lowball grab attempt ahead of MRE2, BFS or Shaun's debt finance solution.

Today was a good day, a very good DAY.

Today is Victory Day. David has seen off Goliath. Excellent partner, no. Ruthless predator, yes.

As you like. Personally I think SD is abs the right man for the job, prepared to tough it out and resist the corporate bully boy tactics which imo will continue.

No contradiction between NCM turning down $85m, and not prepared to offer $60. The explanation is they are not going to fanny around over 5%. They want the lot. 100% ownership of Hav, perfect fit for Telfer. Expect them to be back at the table before the next MRE update. Offer for the remaining 30% will be loosely based around Hav resource of 6.5m oz. NCM dare not wait for the next upgrade.

Now that GGP has to set about finding $100m+ for Hav alone, how are they going to come up with extra money for drilling at Scally, Rudall and EG? Do these 3 prospects now come to a standstill?

Can't imagine NCM looking a gift horse in the mouth and giving up a fantastic opportunity. $60m is peanuts for a Co. with $2.4bn liquidity. That's a miserable 2.5% outlay to grab a bargain, and they turn it down. Crazy.

They don't want Hav, they abs NEED it. Don't rule out these predators returning with a relatively "generous" offer to take 30% of Havieron. Would shareholders and SD turn down $500m? In the long run, NCM will turn that investment into $2bn+.

$500m cash equates to 10p sp. GGP super-funded to go all out on their licences, incl. Ernest Giles, in highly prospective territory. So, would you take half a billion dollars cash?

In fullness of time, Hav's true value will come out as around $6bn. 5% of that = $300m.
For Hav, sitting on $2.4bn liquidity, not to shell out $60m to pick up a bargain gift is short-sighted madness on their part.

There must be an agenda. With no update on drilling data this year, the asset at 6.5m oz, with GGP sp languishing around 10p, look to be sitting duck for a hostile t/o bid for the lot. Don't be at all surprised if NCM comes in to try to grab the lot.

We should be thankful that someone of the calibre of Shaun Day has been appointed. We swim in a sea of sharks. wanting tasty morsels. Pressure on now to get debt finance sorted, notwithstanding the spectres of inflation and recession.

Hav still being valued on drilling data which is 9 months out of date.