Member Info for rossannan

John2727 - you are clearly very much on top of the detail here. I posited an average cost uplift of at least 50% for the four Ortoire wells that TXP has had to sidetrack so far, reading across from North Sea data (reading across the uplift percentage rather than the uplift amount, which is of course larger offshore). Hardolestation and Johnoxxx have both sworn blind on here that PB recently confirmed that the uplift percentage is a lot less than 50% but, for the life of me, I cannot see where he did this and they are being coy about providing a link. Can you help?

John2727

“They’re drilling into near-certain geology”

They are maximising their chances, certainly, but you lost me at “near-certain geology”.

John2727 - thanks. Another 1ST1 is definitely what’s needed, not another 3ST1, so sounds like they are playing the percentages.

(Assuming Cas-5 is not targeting the east side of Fault C)

John2727 - thanks - probably a safe distance from Cas-3, so all still to play for.

John2727

“Walking from Cas-3 to Cas-5”

How far apart are Cas-3 and Cas-5?

And yet not one of you puts your head above the parapet with a PB quote.

Johnoxxx - you are missing the point though. Obviously an offshore well is going to cost significantly more than an onshore well and an offshore sidetrack is going to cost significantly more than an onshore sidetrack. So what? It’s the size of the uplift in percentage terms that you read across, not the amount in dollars. I gave you hard data from an official report and you Discord rampers have come up with absolutely nothing to refute that 50% being a valid read across.

Johnoxxx - and yet you are so laughably reluctant to post the figures that prove how badly I have got this wrong and just how misleading my 50% is. Pull the other one.

Anyway, a running cost total is no use to me. What I am interested in is the cost uplift due to sidetracks. That data seems to be something that TXP is careful not to share. It is likely that the average cost uplift due to sidetracks is now at least 50% and the fact that none of the rampers have come up with data to contradict this speaks volumes. You can keep saying that you have the data and that it proves me wrong, but I just don’t believe you (and am not going to waste any more time responding to you).

So you say.

G_G_G

As you say, anything can happen. If Cas-5, which so far sounds refreshingly problem-free, turns out to be another 1ST1, that will at least put you on a firmer footing. Don’t fancy your chances with Cas-4ST2.

Hardolestation - so what will the uplift on the original cost of Cascadura-4 be at the end of the day then? A bit more than 50% by the sound of it. I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for good news from Cascadura-4ST2 (assuming there isn’t a Cascadura-4ST3) or for it to pay for itself. It sounds like the folk on Discord cannot see the wood for the trees.

G_G_G

“and this placement money falling over could, as you have pointed out, work in our favour”

As I’ve said, it seems unlikely that it will fall over, but you are really pushing it by imagining that it if it did fall over it could work in your favour.

Hardolestation - talk me through Cas-4ST2! You Discord rampers seem to know things the market doesn’t!

Supersport - I’m pretty sure it’s fine but I need to know for sure, now they’ve set that hare running.

Ayecuramba - no, just waiting for news. No reason to suspect it is bad news - if this was anything more than a simple delay in payment, if TXP had any reason to doubt the assurances they have been given, they would have to tell the market about it.

Supersport

Ask me again a week today.

All the best

Ross

Supersport

Ask me again tomorrow morning.

All the best

Ross

Supersport

“If PB and the team get this right going forward we will rocket.”

This is the motto of most AIM companies. And most of them do not get it right going forward. TXP seems to be on a particularly bad trajectory, as evidenced by those awful production figures for April 2025. If you don’t quickly have another win on the geology lottery, your wall of debt will force a painful reset. That reckoning is nothing like priced in and if it happens this will be before any benefits from Central Block can kick in.

To paraphrase what I said before, if 4ST1 or 5 is another 1ST1 this will turn around, but if you get a couple more 3ST1s there will be a reckoning.

TXP is a punt, not an investment.