Member Info for rossannan

Hardolestation - and yet you won’t show me the error of my ways by sharing the actual percentage, which you say you have. Folk can draw their own conclusions.

Ayecuramba - no, I gave you the link to the North Sea data that I was extrapolating from. Maybe the cost will turn out to be only 40% onshore or maybe TXP’s unplanned sidetracks are the kind that push the cost well over 50%. The Discord rampers have all the figures, apparently. I am patiently waiting for them to show me the error of my ways, but they’ve suddenly gone very coy. Funny that.

Hardoleststion - saying that you have the figures to prove my 50% wrong and then refusing to share them is just not good enough. I have looked for those cost figures a number of times and could not find them - I’m sorry, but I just don’t believe that you have them.

“Ross i have the figures lol theres just some things AI cannot do”

Let’s be having them then.

Johnoxxx - go on then, refute that 50% with TXP’s own figures for the original contracted cost of any of those wells vs what they actually cost at the end of the day after being sidetracked. $1million ball park for a sidetrack? Sounds like a throwaway comment at a presentation that you should know better than to take at face value. Good luck pinning the actual figures down - I certainly haven’t seen them jumping out at me, and I think there’s a reason for that.

And you didn’t answer my question - are you not appalled by that April production figure?

Johnoxxx - no, I did not make that sidetrack cost up, I took it from North Sea data (https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/8441/wells-insight-report-2022.pdf - see page 11) and assumed that being unplanned would keep the cost of TXP’s onshore sidetracks up at 50% (at least). Maybe you can provide actual TXP figures to refute this. Good luck - it seems to me that TXP is opaque about cost and production data for individual wells for a reason. The aggregate cost and production data certainly doesn’t paint a happy picture. Are you not appalled by that April production figure?

Stas20 - I have no position here and, as I have often said, I would not touch it with a barge pole. I have two O&G investments that I am very happy with - PTAL and SQZ. I also have JSE, but nobody’s perfect. I am primarily a goldbug, but would probably agree with Supersport about oil prices being likely to rise near term.

The wells that have not paid for themselves are obviously Cascadura 2, Cascadura 3, Royston and Chinook (and the last two may never pay for themselves). I am assuming that Coho 1, Cascadura 1 and Cascadura Deep have paid for themselves.

TXP also seems to have been remarkably opaque on production from individual wells, but that April 2025 total production figure speaks for itself. It will probably be a while before we get more data though and the plateau/ long tail theory can be disproved conclusively.

TXP seems to have been remarkably opaque on sidetrack costs but this AI summary of sidetrack costs suggests 50% to me, particularly because they were unplanned:

A sidetrack adds significant cost to a well, but the exact amount varies considerably. It can range from a few million dollars to tens of millions, depending on factors like the type of sidetrack (planned or unplanned, mechanical or geological), the depth of the sidetrack, the location (onshore vs. offshore), and the specific challenges encountered.

Factors Influencing Sidetrack Costs:

Type of Sidetrack:

Planned Sidetracks: These are often more cost-effective as they are anticipated and can leverage existing infrastructure, potentially saving on rig time and other costs.

Unplanned Sidetracks: These are more expensive due to the need to address unforeseen issues, such as stuck tools, wellbore instability, or encountering unexpected geological formations.

Mechanical vs. Geological Sidetracks:

Mechanical sidetracks (e.g., cutting through casing to create a new wellbore) can be more expensive than geological sidetracks (e.g., following a natural fracture).

Depth and Location:

Deeper wells and offshore operations naturally increase costs due to the complexity and logistical challenges involved.

Reservoir Type:

Sidetracking into marginal or uncertain reservoirs can be less expensive than drilling new wells into those reservoirs.

Non-Productive Time (NPT):

Any delays or issues encountered during the sidetracking process can significantly increase costs.

Casing Wear:

Sidetracking can cause wear on existing casing, potentially requiring repairs or even casing replacement, adding to the overall cost.

Remediation:

If a sidetrack fails or causes damage to the wellbore, the cost of remediation can be substantial.

“Finally, can you explain, how a sidetrack of a well is this huge issue you make it out to be, if it comes online, pays for itself a few times over in first 2 years and then produces for another 10-20 years?”

A sidetrack adds at least 50% to the original cost. Most of the Ortoire wells have not yet paid for themselves and some of them look as if they may never. And there is no evidence that the ones with meaningful production currently will continue to produce for another 10-20 years. The declines remain ferocious - those average net sales volumes of 3,628 boe/d for April were pathetic.

Chinook, Royston, the Royston sidetrack and three Cascadura sidetracks (so far). You can see why they have a debt problem.

You do realise that is only about half their Ortoire wells?

Johnoxxx - I said: “Look at the TXP track record following the pivot to deeper, high pressure wells since 2019.” Sorry, you have to count every ticket that TXP has bought in the Ortoire geology lottery. Then, if you dare, you can divide current Ortoire production by the number of tickets.

John 2727 - with that target depth they seem to be looking for the Herrera (FWIW). PB’s Cruse chat sounds like an unconvincing cop out - they are not going to find anything in the Cruse that will move the dial (and the development of Cascadura has got to a point where they really need to move the dial - they need to get lucky with another Herrera producer).

As for the private placement, it is right there in the document:

“Use of Proceeds of Private Placement

The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the Private Placement to finance the following development activities and provide additional working capital to:

·      finish drilling and completion of the Cascadura-4ST1 development well;

·      drilling and completing the Cascadura-5 development well;

·      tie-in the Cascadura-4ST1 and Cascadura-5 wells; and

·      drill and complete two Central block development wells (subject to completion of the Acquisition).”

Always their decision, just giving them food for thought as a counterpoint to commentary that, to me at least, looks like a danger to their wealth.

Not wasted if I can save just one punter from the clutches of the local rampers.

Hardolestation - no, but you intend to imminently, do you not?

Johnoxxx - you are picking and choosing your Ortoire wells. I can understand why you would do that.

Ayecuramba - indeed, I wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole.