RE: Personal opinion14 Dec 2024 14:14
Stas20
âwhich seem to be trying to instil a sense of increased riskâ
That is my intention, although with some posters on here I worry that it is about trying to instil any sense of risk at all.
It is over 10 years since I first invested in Trinidad O&G, with TRIN becoming my main focus. After a couple of years of that I became less enamoured with Trinidadâs fiscal/political regime (still a fundamental problem today, even after recent tinkering, and not just for oil).
I still viewed TRIN as a very solid company but I sold up after they lost Bruce Dingwall and was never as substantially invested in TRIN or Trinidad again. As I said before though, while my turning negative on TRIN was initially about specific mistakes that his successors made in BDâs absence, it was ultimately about emerging risk - on top of the fiscal/political stuff you had shallow fields that were beginning to play out and increasingly clear indications why no one had ever followed through with Trinidad onshore at depth.
Then TXP swooped in for TRIN. It was clear from recent TXP history that TXP was also a big bundle of risk, not least because of the debt and the declines, and I was appalled to see Che7win saying this to TRIN shareholders:
âItâs a good deal because youâre getting TXP paper at a very low price. Think about that and the doubling of TXP production by year end before saying the TRIN takeover is poor value.
If someone else came in and offered you 75-100p cash, I would say TXP with imminent growth is a much better way for you to recover losses and make upside profit on both TXP and TRIN assets.â
Awful, awful advice, but fortunately for TRIN shareholders it was overtaken by events.
Then we have yesterdayâs TXP news. You say it is ânothing but fantastic newsâ. For me, as I said, it is a pivot that does not reflect well on the existing business, whatever opportunities the acquisition may bring. TRIN latterly became all about the pivots as one new initiative after another failed and was quietly buried.
So even with the TXP share price down here in the 20s, the balance of risk and reward is just not that attractive to me. Iâll stick with PTAL, keep reinvesting my dividends and see where that gets me. In any event, my main focus in recent years has been gold.
Those are my thoughts, for what they are worth. Take them or leave them - I wonât bother you any further.
All the best
Ross