Member Info for rossannan

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Johnoxxx

“cas deep hasn't paid for itself you are saying??”

Did you not even read my post?

The Jacobin link is the uncertain geology of Trinidad at depth, which is now becoming apparent here to. Otherwise, why has the share price collapsed in the way it has?

Johnoxxx

“Cas A wells have already paid for themselves multiple times over and will continue to do so for years to come.”

Just not true. The first one has certainly more than paid for itself but the shale-style declines have been ferocious. The latest results were distinctly mixed. It is all looking a bit marginal now. Trinidad at depth is a bit random, to say the least. Cascadura has not been a complete washout like Jacobin but it is the same lottery they are playing.

PFB

More risk is in the price than previously but whether it is all now in the price is another matter. TXP has been drip feeding disappointment to its shareholders for a while now. It reminds me of the Jacobin debacle that ultimately brought TRIN down (though at least TRIN shareholders finally escaped with cash rather than TXP shares). The link is the dodgy geology of Trinidad at depth - shareholders who once saw a wall of cash coming their way are now looking at distinctly marginal assets and wondering if there will ever be anything in it for them, whatever che7win says.

PF Builder

“I've been waiting for years to get back in here.

Back in yesterday. The current SP provides excellent value.”

Are you sure you know what you have bought? TXP now and TXP from years ago are very different animals. The shine has come right off this one. Like TRIN it has been found out both in terms of asset and management quality. Rampers like che7win will continue to put the most positive spin they can on it all, but the trajectory is not good and the debt is no laughing matter.

G_G_G - Discord and Telegram are usually just nests of rampers for shares like these. You are well out of it.

Look away, I would.

Yes, the TRIN BoD and the TXP BoD have that in common. Cash is king.

“Absolutely nothing to do with shareholder value”

Absolutely everything to do with shareholder value, for once. Everything to do with the difference between a slug of cash and the big bundle of risk that is TXP, as the market worked out some time ago.

Yes, that is a good point, the next update on the current wells is important too.

Is it though? It did not seem to be flattening that much and was in fact so bad they had to do a recompletion after about 10 months. What the Cascadura figures would look like without the recompletion, I shudder to think.

G_G_G

“a steady flow rate of 20mmcf per well after initial decline of 50% in 1st year”

Seems an unlikely outcome if the first two wells, which are yet to achieve a steady flow rate, are anything to go by.

Are you looking for a summary of what went wrong or were you following the story as it unfolded?

Presumably his argument is that by having done this he should ultimately end up with the same amount of TXP but have some cash over. The risk he is running is, of course, that the TXP offer fails and by having done this he ends up with less of the exposure to the TRIN assets that he seems to want so badly.

Absolutely, I just want TRIN shareholders to have a decent exit option, whatever that may look like.

Ayecuramba

Agreed, it is huge for TRIN shareholders that before it is too late they now have the chance to see how the new Cascadura wells pan out.

Smasher

Anything is possible but success for TXP will not now look like what people were imagining a few years ago.

And that lower return model that you describe (contrast the higher return models that everyone was working with when TXP took on all that debt) is now the best case - the tricky geology of Trinidad at those depths could easily throw a curveball that could then become an existential crisis for TXP. TRIN shareholders, fresh from the Jacobin debacle, are well out of it - encouraging TRIN RNS this morning.

Ayecuramba

Specifically, why should the decline rates for the new Cascadura wells be any different to the ferocious decline rates experienced by the existing Cascadura wells?

Ayecuramba

Great, you can address my arguments on their own merits then.