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Ab76

You should attach a share price chart to that hagiography, for maximum irony.

All the best

Ross

Ab76



If lower level oil is not found, that will be a massive blow. How long would Jacobin have to produce from the shallower levels to pay back its cost? In fact, could it ever? If no lower level oil is found - or even if just no commercial lower level oil is found - will you be saying “Bring Me the Head of James Menzies”? Maybe you should be. Maybe it will finally be time to use your substantial TRIN shareholding to drive management changes.

All the best

Ross

63%. Let’s assume that when James Menzies arguably put his job on the line with that figure and his appraisal comment, he had a sound basis for doing so (such as data from older analogous wells). But what does a CoS figure actually mean? Is there a 63% chance here of a transformational, share price popping result from Jacobin? No. Any CoS figure covers a range of outcomes, from marginal commerciality to the kind of best case figures that lead retail punters astray. What is the percentage chance of a transformational, share price popping result from Jacobin? Much lower. Even James Menzies, if pressed, would have to admit that.

Ab76

Perhaps Cenkos did not miss anything but simply felt that 33% was realistic. They have of late been injecting such doses of reality, another example being that revised 2023 production estimate.

So James Menzies has indeed made a bold statement about Jacobin. I would point out that TRIN are in share promotion mode here and that you might therefore want to take that figure of 63% with a pinch of salt.

TRIN have form for making aspirations sound a bit like forecasts - stay cynical.

Ross

Ab76

So where do you think Cenkos got that from?

Did JM actually say “like an appraisal instead of exploratory”?

ATB

Ross

Ab76

A genuine 63% CoS below 5500 feet probably translates into a near 100% chance of finding oil below 5500 feet. So why even contemplate the possibility of a duster?

Why does the Jacobin CoS keep changing? We have had 50% then 33% and we now have 63%.

Do you know enough about the migration of oil from source rock to reservoir rock to say that “the presence or absence of oil in any one reservoir is unlikely to meaningfully increase or decrease the prospect of it being in another”?

ATB

Ross

I remember that from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time. I guess this is more observational than mathematical - the CoS for exploratory drilling, stacked targets or not, is typically no more than 30% or 1 in 3. It is like they are telling us we are getting three exploratory drills for the price of one. I just won’t buy that until an independent geologist, who can give us chapter and verse on oil migration, for example, tells us otherwise, namely that they can multiply up the probabilities like that.

Ab76

That does not answer my question, which is whether it is correct to say that what is actually found at one level in a given well makes NO difference to the CoS at any other level in that particular well. Unless that statement is correct, TRIN would appear to me to be using misleading methodology.

As I said before, if there is a geologist out there your answer to my question would be most welcome.

ATB

Ross

Ab76

Let’s see how it all stacks up in hindsight when we have the Jacobin result.

ATB

Ross

Ab76

I would like to hear from a geophysicist entirely independent of TRIN that the methodology they are using to calculate the CoS figure of 63% they are now putting before retail investors actually holds water. Most recently Cenkos were clear that the CoS was 33%. 63% is certainly new. TRIN need to get their Jacobin story straight and stick to it.

ATB

Ross

Ab76

Not interested in addressing the point that I am making about the figure of 63% and how TRIN came up with it? Does experience not show that you need to kick the tyres of what TRIN comes out with rather than assume that you can take it to the bank?

ATB

Ross

Ab76

To me that seems like a misleading way of representing the CoS, implying as it does that what is actually found at one level in a given well makes no difference to the CoS at any other level in that particular well. If there is a geologist out there with an interest in probability, your take on all this would be most welcome - until you tell me otherwise, this particular bit of maths feels to me like a new low for TRIN.

ATB

Ross

Ab76

Cenkos said it was a 33% CoS. Where did you get 63%?

ATB

Ross

Whether the shares have bottomed absolutely depends on whether their one in three (according to Cenkos) Jacobin gamble comes off. I am not even sure that the excitement of getting closer to the Jacobin result will lift them, given those odds.

ZagEgypt

It is not in any sense like watching paint dry. The timescales here are now very short. For good or for ill we will have significant share price outcomes over the next few weeks. Worth waiting for if you believe that these outcomes are more likely than not to be positive.

I am happy to wait for that RNS (or tweet) about the jet pump being delivered and what that will do for the share price (whatever comes after).

ZagEgypt

Are you sure? I think that even the news of the delivery of the jet pump - which we can pretty much bank on - will be worth waiting for.

Exit through the gift shop.

ZagEgypt

Good luck with it - even news of the delivery and installation of the jet pump, separate from the results of that exercise, could be a useful catalyst. What is your price target? I would say that there is an easy ultra short term 20% from here but after that it gets more speculative (and who knows what the end game will be). At least this is not CEG.