Member Info for rossannan

What we will get tomorrow will be the usual mixture of forward looking stuff and useful facts and figures.

We will as ever have to exercise our own judgment when it comes to the forward looking stuff, like I did with whether news on fiscal reform was imminent or not (as I suspected, it was not imminent). It will be interesting to see what the TRIN take on that whole issue is now.

TRIN are an honest bunch. Being led some way up the garden path by the regime on fiscal reform has not changed that, it has just shown them to be over-optimistic. In other words, TRIN let their aspirations become their expectations. And many BB posters duly made the same mistake.

It should all become a bit clearer tomorrow.

now seems to be all that is required here. I think the bottom is in.

Cannot see this doing any harm. Feels like a safe RNS that should be well tolerated.

Happy days.

LuckCounts

TRIN are at the mercy of a business unfriendly fiscal regime. You can keep posting your figures, but the fiscal regime is the elephant in the room. It is difficult to see what more management can do other than keep lobbying. They could suspend the proposed onshore drilling campaign, I guess, or threaten to start deploying capital in other jurisdictions. These would be very bold moves, but would involve a high degree of risk.

EarlofAim

“why a Billionaire from New Zealand wants this company?”

Perhaps he wants to become a millionaire.

That’s Twitter/Telegram for you - either rampy or irrelevant.

Not that I ever bought into the Twitter/Telegram ramping, but with ARCM next to AMC on my watchlist I did think just for a moment this morning that I saw an ARCM RNS.

SeisNav

Very good post - you wouldn’t get away with insight like that in the ARCM Telegram Group. Majors basically have exploration subsidised by the long suffering shareholders of junior miners - they know how to sweat outfits like ARCM. If a deal does appear in the very near future we will be the exception that proves this rule (and will therefore do very nicely indeed).

I’m sticking with it but totally respect your decision. Good luck with whatever you deploy your capital on.

CharlieGeorge

You want to stay well away from it - I joined, made a couple of posts that were a bit sceptical and was immediately kicked out. I was left with the clear impression of a childish echo chamber.

“This is a terrible disappointment for Trinity and the poor share price performance this year won’t be made any better by the delay. Having said that when the company does decide to return to drilling there should be considerable upside.”

Not sure Malcy’s take adds much value.

LuckCounts

Nevertheless, that last update showed just how little of the cash that is generated makes it to the bottom line and does not bode well for the upcoming 2021 financials.

LuckCounts

“His opinion that the TGAL FID would take place in 2020 was clearly predicated on SPT reform.”

Exactly my point. His take on the timing of TGAL FID turned out to be (way) wrong because his take on SPT reform was wrong. What I am saying is that you and posters like Pavey Ark and Ab76 need to consider the very real possibility that your current take on SPT reform is again wrong. In fact it seems to me more likely than not that either no news at all will emerge in June or no news will emerge on which commercial decisions can be made. As for successful tax reform at the end of the day, my sense is that the momentum has been lost. I am unimpressed by what sounds like increasingly empty rhetoric.

As I said before, I bet TRIN now wish that Galeota was in some other jurisdiction.

As for the opinions that you list, look again at what I actually said. It was mainly in response to the rampy takes of posters like Pavey Ark and Ab76 on these issues. Whether you like it or not, they were wrong. I do not recall predicting dramatic falls in production - more likely I was simply querying the uplifts that they were predicting. SCADA has certainly not been a game changer. Again I do not recall predicting dramatic uplifts in costs, although you have to admit that I did predict the cost uplift revealed in the most recent update. And when have I ever said that TRIN is not generating cash? All I have done is pointed out that it is not generating nearly as much cash as the rampers would have folk believe.

LuckCounts

1. To be fair, the only posters I describe as “rampers” are the rampers.

2. This is true, you cannot be sceptical enough about cash generation under the current fiscal regime.

3. Check again - I was referencing Pavey Ark on TGAL FID (Final Investment Decision).

4. The classic ramper mistake - treating aspirational management statements as all but bankable (see e.g. 3. above). And, of course, we will shortly find out what happens (or not) in June.

5. Just wrong - I am consistently sceptical.

6. By calling people rampers? Hardly.

7. And yet I have generally been right to be sceptical about TRIN when the supposedly well-researched Pavey Arks and Ab76s have generally been wrong.

8. All contributions to the debate are welcome (even from rampers).

LuckCounts

Bless you, my son.

LuckCounts

“if SPT reforms happen”

LuckCounts

Put it this way: I am no longer convinced that, in the absence of fiscal reform, TRIN would remain in three figures.

LuckCounts

“You have been inconsistent - go back to your post where you claim that TRIN can only fall back so much due to value situation... and than turned tail...”

No, I was perfectly entitled to modify my view on the back of that last, rather disappointing, update. I had certainly thought that the value case significantly limited the downside, but as I pointed out at the time:

“Reflecting on yesterday’s update, particularly the financials, I don’t think anyone can now talk with a straight face about TRIN throwing off cash - it really does seem that the current fiscal regime has TRIN running to stand still. I am now less convinced that there is a value case here, not without significant fiscal reform anyway. The worry has to be that TRIN is being strung along on fiscal reform.”

The downside is not unlimited but it certainly seems bigger than it did only a couple of weeks ago.