Member Info for rossannan

LuckCounts

It doesn’t sound as if you are actually taking the time to read what I post. You should. You will find that whether or not I have been invested at the time I posted, my posts have been (a) remarkably consistent and (b) generally right. You and the others who talk their TRIN books on BBs can certainly claim (a) but you certainly cannot claim (b) as the RNSs demonstrate.

LuckCounts

I think that is your mistake, imagining that they have an impact and posting accordingly instead of ensuring that you backed the right horse in the first place.

“It is clear your agenda... drumbeat roll of negative TRIN troll spin in a low volume share and than pick-up shares cheapily at these ridiculous prices due to low volumes to sell into news..... cunning little troll....”

Do you genuinely believe that BB posts have traction on the TRIN share price?

LuckCounts

Sorry, I would rather talk about TRIN. You crack on though and if you include anything about TRIN I will address that. For example, your “but TRIN is currently valued for a worst case scenario”. Really? Even if in June there is neither fiscal reform nor even any signalling of fiscal reform? Good luck with that.

LuckCounts

This BB is about TRIN, not about me. You can try, as did other abusive posters like Pavey Ark and Ab76, to make the conversation about me. You would obviously like me to go away, but that is not going to happen. The fact remains that I have called this better than any of you and was right to sell up after TRIN doubled from single figures and, in the absence of any immediate prospect of fiscal reform, concentrate on trading it. If you all stop talking your books and look at TRIN more objectively, you will do better.

LuckCounts

Again, name calling is pointless. Any number of posts, however abusive, are not going to make a blind bit of difference to the outcome here - this one is all down to whether or not meaningful fiscal reform happens.

No AIM share is worth getting that attached to. At some point the people involved let you down, or there is a problem with the jurisdiction the company is operating in, or both.

The people are not the problem here, but the figures in that last update, bad enough for me to put even the value case under review, illustrate that Trinidad and Tobago is a toxic jurisdiction - TRIN takes the risks but the rewards are forever withheld.

“TRIN is a dog because of SPT”

Correct.

PipeDragger

What would they pay a special dividend out of other than their cash reserve? Would that make any sense?

They are certainly not making enough of a profit to justify a dividend, not under the current, rather toxic, fiscal regime. Yes, the Government make encouraging noises in the direction of TRIN and other oil companies from time to time, but I doubt that these are the same noises they make in the direction of their base.

The Government have a small, but distinct, window of opportunity to do the right thing.

Time will tell what they do with it.

In theory, yes. But it is interesting to explore this idea.

Right now, under the current fiscal regime, TRIN looks a bit like a hamster in a wheel - and it looks as if the powers that be like it that way. Employment is created, both directly and indirectly, and very significant amounts of tax are paid. There is certainly enough revenue left over to pay some substantial BoD salaries. But I am not seeing significant shareholder value being generated and, more importantly, neither is the market.

So can Galeota generate significant shareholder value without meaningful fiscal reform? Well, what has been negotiated on Galeota certainly contains some useful sweeteners. But without substantial changes to the SPT regime, any potential farm down partner will still see a fiscal regime that remains unfriendly and will perhaps wonder how much profit they will actually be allowed to make over time. This will not help TRIN’s bargaining position and, if the farm down does go ahead, it will likely then be on terms that are significantly less shareholder friendly.

So if no meaningful fiscal reform emerges, will the TRIN BoD, undoubtedly a cut above the usual AIM suspects, go into bat for their shareholders? They could threaten to shelve Galeota and to start deploying TRIN’s capital in more friendly jurisdictions, for example. Or will they just get Galeota done to grow the business but without anything like the kind of uplift in shareholder value that the folk invested here are hoping for?

Time will tell.

I have seen it being suggested that the logical time to announce the outcome of the taxation review is at the annual half-year budget review in June and being asserted that this is when changes to fiscal measures are commonly made.

My own impression from the most recent budget reviews

https://www.ey.com/en_gl/tax-alerts/trinidad-and-tobago-issues-mid-year-budget-review-2020

https://www.finance.gov.tt/2021/06/10/supplementary-appropriation-and-budget-mid-year-review-statement-2021/

is that this is more likely to take the form of a taxation review progress report than any actual changes to fiscal measures. The question is maybe whether this progress report will adequately identify for TRIN’s purposes what changes are being contemplated. I would not bet on it, even if TRIN believe that they have heard encouraging noises in the recent past.

LuckCounts

Not what I said. Some drilling will happen, but if there is no meaningful fiscal reform in the near future, any drilling campaign that starts in the meantime will be far from exciting - just you wait. Some kind of fiscal reform will presumably emerge from the Budget, if not before, even if this is only to make the temporary $75 onshore threshold permanent. But without significantly more than that, yes, Galeota may indeed not happen. You keep mentioning those tax losses, but they cannot be used against SPT, only against PPT.

Neither of us is an oracle, but which one of us has called this better? Was I right to sell up after TRIN doubled from single figures and, in the absence of any immediate prospect of fiscal reform, concentrate on trading it? I think so.

Meaningful fiscal reform or no meaningful fiscal reform? That it all that really matters here.

PipeDragger

It all comes down to the fiscal regime. Saying in that last RNS that they passed on NWD “due to the high technical and operational risks, which the consortium concluded significantly challenge the commercial attractiveness of the opportunity”, was probably as close as they dared come to telling the powers that be to fix their fiscal regime so that risks like NWD become worth taking.

Sadly, anyone doing their due diligence on Galeota, even though as development it is more about project economics than technical/operational risk, will be having similar thoughts about the fiscal regime, while I suspect that the pace of the H2 drilling will be very much linked to the news (or lack of it) on fiscal reform.

The leopards who are in charge here are clearly reluctant to change their spots.

LuckCounts

I think you are mistaken if you are imagining that your posts help your investment in any way - you can shout as loudly as you like from the side of the racecourse, but you have either backed the right horse or you haven’t.

You crack on though.

LuckCounts

Again, name calling is pointless. Any number of posts, however abusive, are not going to make a blind bit of difference to the outcome here - this one is all down to whether or not meaningful fiscal reform happens.

No AIM share is worth getting that attached to. At some point the people involved let you down, or there is a problem with the jurisdiction the company is operating in, or both.

The people are not the problem here, but the figures in that last update, bad enough for me to put even the value case under review, illustrate that Trinidad and Tobago is a toxic jurisdiction - TRIN takes the risks but the rewards are forever withheld.

jfk9

It is not like it has gone missing, it is just the point I have made before about revenue flowing into various buckets on its way to the bottom line, being why so little of it actually makes it to the bottom line, whatever the oil price (and don’t get me started on the price TRIN is actually paid). The consensus seems to be that the amount in question flowed into the royalties bucket.

Reflecting on yesterday’s update, particularly the financials, I don’t think anyone can now talk with a straight face about TRIN throwing off cash - it really does seem that the current fiscal regime has TRIN running to stand still. I am now less convinced that there is a value case here, not without significant fiscal reform anyway. The worry has to be that TRIN is being strung along on fiscal reform.

I bet TRIN wish that Galeota was in some other jurisdiction.

LuckCounts

SPT reform: the last we heard from them (three months ago) was “Trinity is increasingly confident that SPT reforms will be implemented in the near term”, with them buying into talk of “a comprehensive review of Trinidad and Tobago's taxation regime underway with outcomes expected during H1 2022”. Are they still buying into all this? Three months later that term does not seem to have got any nearer: “We understand that the Government's deliberations over tax reform, specifically in relation to SPT, are ongoing, and we look forward to news on this matter in the near term with keen interest.”

New drilling: last we heard was “Trinity continues to be well placed to deliver growth with the recommencement of onshore drilling now targeted for H2 2022. This is likely, initially, to comprise two infill wells at the under-exploited PS-4 Block, and Trinity is also working up a potential appraisal well targeting deeper horizons identified by the ongoing seismic interpretation.” Now we have “The Company has committed to resuming onshore drilling, which is expected to commence early in H2 2022, with the precise timing subject to receipt of regulatory approvals and long lead items for more complex wells. This drilling campaign will be carried out in the areas defined by Trinity's Lease Operatorship Agreements and will initially comprise at least five wells, inclusive of low angle (traditional) wells, high angle to horizontal wells and testing of deeper structures with the aim of significantly increasing initial production rates and cash returns. The Company will provide further details regarding the resumption of drilling during May 2022.” Certainly fleshing out what they told us previously, but I would not suggest that anyone should hold their breath for those “regulatory approvals” and, particularly in this market, those “long lead items”.

Farm down timing: we previously had “The process is expected to commence during December with a duration of approximately six to nine months. We will keep the market updated as the farm-down process progresses.” Now we have “The farm down process for the offshore Galeota Asset continues, with the bid deadline in late Q2 2022. The marketing process is being conducted by Stellar Energy Advisors. The Company expects to provide a further update early in H2 2022.” No significant change there, although when read with their now more tentative take on SPT reform, it does not bode well for anything conclusive in the near future - potential partners may decide that the missing SPT reforms “significantly challenge the commercial attractiveness of the opportunity”.

Well done though closing (just) in the blue.

Cannot see how this could possibly close today in the blue, not after that update.

LuckCounts

We will have some indication of how astute they are in ten days or so. But if you look at the TRIN threads on ADVFN you will see that having holdings significantly larger than my usual 10K shares do not lead to those holders calling TRIN right - in fact this seems to incline them more to talk their books. Look at how consistently over-optimistic the usual suspects on ADVFN have been. Do I need to give examples?

We’ll know the date and location by the end of next month - see you there perhaps (assuming I have bought back in by then and there is no clash with hols).

Pretty sure they will. They had tended to alternate between Edinburgh and London before the pandemic. I can do Edinburgh, London not so much.