Member Info for RorkesDrift

Steel watch I use the "Investing" app

Hi chengdo - I'm not sure of rate required but 95% seems reasonable.

I understand any true positive test reduces R but we are trying to get out of lock down. With numbers suggested (300) infected i dont think we are there. Remember these are all made up models. There is a LOD that picks up such a high proportion of cases that lock down can be relaxed and track and trace become the new norm. If we can leap that hurdle then we reap the reward. With limited info we are kind of keeping our fingers crossed and relying on AS to be open and honest about it - probably he doesnt even know until test has been validated. I cannot tell you how much I hope it does ;-)

I think the white house briefings have discussed this. If you have a false positive rate of 5% and/or a false negative rate of 10%. Then numbers work like this.

Test 100,000. Accrual prevalence is 1% so 1000 people genuinely have it.

You will 90% genuine cases so 900

You will also have an additional 5% false positives 5000 people. And their families will also isolate.

You will miss 100 people - false negatives.

They remain at large - if R=3 then they will infect 300 others.

The higher the accuracy the better these numbers are - there is minimum and I'm guessing 99%.

Sorry cannot post link but there is can article on llamas in this mornings Guardian - thats a newspaper. Whilst llamas articles are always nice this one in particular describes reforms to generate antibodies. Most of us are familiar by now about animal derive dB antibodies but llamas make a second much smaller style. Take this information add it to the fact that affimers are also smaller and you can make 4.

Watched the announcement. Apparently he has decided that they are going to put some effort behind a vaccine effort. Well wow thats an idea. Watching Dr F do St Vitus dance and Trunp struggle to read were the highlights.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/05/15/cow-antibodies-coronavirus-treatment-cohen-pkg-newday-vpx.cnn

Human antibodies presumably because bovine would be neutralised. Not sure if affirmers (which appear to be proteins ?) overcome this but doubt CEO would be as positive. Manufacturing costs would be cheaper for affirmers and simpler to scale up. Can benchmark against these for timelines - saying next year. Not a doctor.

Yes its a nice round number. Anything other than that. Why not 1 or 100

RH. I'm thinking we would all be millionaires if we had a retro scope. Having a stop loss and locking in some gains is sensible - yesterday the shares were worth exactly what you sold them for by definition.

I hate having fat fingers and typing on phone

Apologies if already highlighted. The RNS mentioned GSK who are partnering with Vir Biotech. VB just published update. They have revenue of approx $23M and a loss of about $300M. They have pipelines of phase In in Hep Band pre-vlinival for influenza. The have several programs for monoclonal antibodies with GSK, Alnylam and the NIH. GSK just bought $250M and the total MKT cap is $3.7B. The don't look life they will deliver any product this year. Having phase II in hepatitis is great but the stock has increased by 3x on covid. ThaT suggests it added $2B to the value I think.

Vaccines, plasma treatment and monoclonal antibodies are all proven therapeutic approaches. First hurdle is preclinical testing and this might have to involve primates. I guess all the vaccine companies are fighting for access to this. On the upside the UK is leading the world with robust clinical trials and couple this with Innovate funding (non dilution) we might get there faster than otherwise.

https://le.ac.uk/news/2020/april/17-decoy-protein-covid-19

Hi. Just so I can run some numbers how do you get to £3-£5. I'm thinking a randomises trial will need preclinical and then at least phase II. Ww have no idea of dose required or any potential side effects. But let's say 100000 very sick patients in the UK and a cost equivilent to one day in ITU (about £1600). Then net margin of 25?. That gives £40M and at a conservative PE of 20 a MKT cap of £800M. This is an SP of £3. That's just the UK so multiply by 10 for the world. Significant assumption is that it works - at the moment we have nothing more than warm feelings.

https://le.ac.uk/news/2020/april/17-decoy-protein-covid-19

There is discussion about decoy proteins - affirmers (since they have antigen recognition properties) would Bevan idea. In the short-term donated serum from past parients containing antibodies remain unproven. Time develop a completely new therapeutic approach will take years and a shed load of money Avacta do not have. If test, track and isolate hasn't worked by then ......

From memory the value of the shares before Covid was about 20p. They had all the programs in place at that time. Is it fair to say that the increase in SP since then is down to they may potentially have a covid 19 test. From that its fair to say that the future will either be

A) they developed a successful test and be in a different place
B) the test falls over and they go back to what they were pre-covid

The current SP is just the balance between these two. Crossing fingers is one valid approach but the professionals must have looked at this, spent some money on research eyc and to fair someone has had a bit of a punt this week. However, the fat lady isn't even tuning up yet. Need to bear in mind the chances of test not being delivered and what that would do to share price. I have rolled the dice and so now off to count some chickens RD.

From memory the value of the shares before Covid was about 20p. They had all the programs in place at that time. Is it fair to say that the increase in SP since then is down to they may potentially have a covid 19 test. From that its fair to say that the future will either be

A) they developed a successful share and be in a different place
B) the test falls over and they go back to what they were pre-covid

The current SP is just the balance between these two. Crossing fingers is one valid approach but the professionals must have looked at this, spent some money on research eyc and to fair someone has had a bit of a punt this week. However, the fat lady isn't even tuning up yet. Need to bear in mind the chances of test not being delivered and what that would do to share price. I have rolled the dice and small now off to count some chickens RD.

NHS procurement hubs in UK. Might look to the wholesalers to cover pharmacy / gp. Large chains like Boots etc probably buy direct if testing community led . Private companies eg airlines again either direct or via normal distribution channels. Don't think distribution would be a problem - lots of infrastructure in place. You would hope for some link with track and trace for every test though but suspect that's a wider question.

Malt by - thanks for the sentiment in sharing. Refreshing and more use then pulling SP numbers out of your ****

At last a post that has real content to it. Thank you.