Member Info for RorkesDrift

What we haven't heard is whether Cytiva are involved in decision. Presumably they have had to sign off on this - its their test more than Avactas. If so they will also have done their analysis. The other and probably more likely route is Avacta have another manufacturer lined up to produce a "own label" test and by restricting it to consumer let Cytiva run the large volume side. Probably make better margin with Boohoo lot but more total profit with cytiva.

Target MKT cap of £4B
PE of 16

Would require earnings of 4B/ 16
= £250m pa

At net margin of 20% (high)
Sales required £1.6B

Rev per test at £10
Then requires 160M tests every year.

In interview suggested idea is to create an entirely new market for home testing.

Note valuation is without other revenue such as oncology

Thank you 1ss - great and timely post

Phew where does all this anger come from. Given the size of this company I'm not sure any one view will change the share price - between us I doubt we hold enough

The spread seems wider than any time recently. Might just be my perception but its put me off buying more

Comek - you have an opinion. I've listened to it. I've checked the rules of the Board and its not a requirement we all agree - in fact I'm more interested in a variety of opinions - I am better informed that way. You are not the only one but thus board feels like a children's play ground rather than an adult discussion although I do find any reference to a gimp mask funny

Probably those boo boo guys

We don't know the margins either side plus there is a profit share in there. Personally think it looks odd to create exclusive worldwide for a mass consumer product - distributors have different regional presence and expertise. US would be the big one but maybe those guys were asking for too much margin. Trying to think of another consumer medical device launched like this - struggling. It is what it is.

Thank you. This Board does have value. ????

Aoologies if posted before https://www.***************************/avacta-group-affimers-first-class-prospects-says-zeus-capital/412822822

Are market markets aware of news before it comes out? Just wondering what the mechanism is - I'm now watching hoping you are right but...

I've not been on this board long but my gut feel is that the number of posts discussing potential risk is about 1/10th those that repeatedly say that this is a certainty and then pick a future share price from thin air. I dont know which way it will go but I have DYOR. My view without the test then the other projects are a safety net but until we get something that is a bit more definitive then we currently have then the market is probably right. Just repeating the highest number I can think of isn't that helpful without some sort of use of the word may. I hope we do get there but I'm realistic

Avacta has had this patent for a number of years. The SP went down if anything over that time. The recent rise is because they MAY have a Covid 19 test. They may not - nothing is a given yet and this is not a risk free punt. The potential rewards are huge but that is only because the risks are high. The market has voted - shares are worth exactly (Google Avacta share price)

I'd guest they either have a view that they will get a better return elsewhere (I clearly dont agree) or their philosophy is more cautious than mine (which is a bit **** or bust). A bird in the hand and all that - perhaps as their holding value increases it triggers selling to keep their total investments diversified - I now have a fair % of mine in Avacta but it makes me nervous. Given the rise in share price which must include a lot of other well resourced investors I'm not worried.

Just checking. Is this a discission board?

I'm OK with someone asking the question. To be honest its a bit more constructive then just repeatedly repeating this test is a gold plated certainty and coming up with potential numbers plucked out of thin air. It isn't - its multi factorial and the covid test isnt their only game. Suggest cut and paste and start again. If noone replies then it will soon drop off board and everyone will be happy.

I'm not a doctor but if a company has significant announcement I think it has to go through market. I know Trump is a law in to himself though. In reality I can imagine that US government and therefore Trump will know where its at. Azar did say something about an unknown LFD in last 24 hours. I suspect there will be some significant buying as those in the know capitalise - amazing how many senators chose just the right moment to trade.

Ah OK - good to be corrected. I think on Son a website talking $50 per test. Using animal antibodies and additional materials you would think their CoGs would be higher than Avacta. AS states $30 selling price and $2 CoGs a couple of weeks ago.

Quick look at their website. Both companies are partnering GE (Cytiva) and both companies aiming for LFDs. They look slightly ahead in validation.

A LFD comprises a molecule that recognises a very specific antigen (virus). It then binds to a label. Avacta uses affirmers to do the first part whilst Son a look like they are using antibodies from the native american company. Advantage us I think - simpler to produce plus others - see Avacta website. For the label Avacta will probably use colloidal gold but lots of options. Sona have developed these nanorods that enables multiple tests on same stick. They mention sensitivity but in context looks like a lower Limit of Detection.

Logically GE + Sona + Avacta would be a beautiful test, the best test etc etc. Doesnt look like its on the cards yet. One concern is GE looks like the assessor and decision maker.

Than I you Steel watch