Member Info for RorkesDrift

99.9% chance of success

1.2B tests per month

Yet the sophisticated market investors haven't bought in at a price that would make them billionaires over night. Time to up the dose.

Thanks for the challenge. Several bits where we agree, others we disagree. I'll stick to one for moment
On test-kit lets take a look at the current market and especially competitors.
There are so many companies out there producing covi19 diagnostics that I have lost count, some of these companies have financial muscles and huge brand potential that dwarf that of avct. It seems governments are incline to chose the big brands when it comes to spending money on testing

Lots of companies out there but they are nearly all using the same PCR technology. Few others still require sample to be sent to a lab. Affirmers are "untestedish" but principle of a binding reagent is well proven. Given amplification of PCR our biggest tech issue is LoD.

Cytiva our partner is also huge. Indeed their due diligence exceeds anything thus board could do.

Governments have backed a number of small companies - DNAnudge already been discussed this morning.

Not a doctor

That looks like a shed load of work and thank you. Bootstrap? or are you a health economist in your spare time ??

I think CE mark is also required - will be rushed through but opens up world markets including skewness.

Im absolutely convinced the efficient market model would work if it wasn't for all the nudge and wink stuff that goes on. Surprising how often price moves before announcements. Didn't Archer get lucky once buying shares in company his wife was making an announcement about the next day. Don't get me started on Boohoo.

PL75 made the point its binary. We either have a test that works or we don't. If we do then doubling would be a conservative target. I think £1.2B MKT cap is a pause and make safe point for me. Not a doctor.

Aaaaagh. I mean £1.87.

Sorry PL75. I was being obtuse. Current share price is £1.83. I'll go and stand in the corner.

Yep. Someone mentioned normal flu the other day. If GPs could determine between infuenza , bad cold or bacterial infection with a simple saliva test then I believe they would do it. Isolating people with flu would cut down hospitalisations (something about an R number)

We could quadruple it. We could halve it. Don't go counting chickens or chasing waterfalls. Not a doctor.

CoGs are £2 per test. Avacta not a charity. RH staying in lock down and counting money saved. For myself I'm just going to send the youngest child out and then get her tested. If its safe the rest of us will make an appearance

Don't think MHRA are waiting on FDA. Everyone is waiting on validation which is with Cytiva.

By the way a large group of people have run a very similar excercise including the bit that models for risk (I believe the bean counters have a special course on it). They arrived at a current share price based on rates of return vs other options of £1.83. Problem being that next month the shares will be worth a lot more or a lot less since whether tests works is unproven. As the wise man at the top of the monutsin said " if I want warm feelings, I'll pis in my pants" not a doctor.

Probability rapid covid-19 test is successfully released to mass demand: 50%. Based on what works in a LSB doesn't always translates and I have doubts over LoD.

- Average price per test sold (bearing in mind bulk orders may be heavily discounted): £15. Based on webcast and belief governments will buy more then individuals. Profiteering will be met with legislation eg war powers act.

- Cost of manufacturing per test: £2. Again provided by CEO in webcast.

- Other costs per test e.g. distribution, admin: Difficult cause I believe is a fairly fixed cost rather than variable but let's go with 2x CoGs. £4.

- Avacta % of profit share with Medusa19 and Cytiva. 35%. Note I believe the Medusa test will be own label and Avacta have profit share.

- Number of months of mass demand: 12

- Average # sold per month of mass demand: Stated above (and previously) but test, trace and isolate means that multiple testing will fall off especially with phone apps reporting potential exposure. Therefore I think initial mass testing of 20 M in UK followed by about 1M per month for 11 months. This is UK only. Multiply by 10 for first world - say 330M tests total.

Every time you check the price you have to play "don't stop me know" on the kazoo. That cured me. Not a doctor.

I'm googling TILS now - thanks

My advice is try and wean yourself off it. I use investing app to send price alerts. If you are not intending to do anything on price movements then it smacks a bit like one of those monkeys that cannot stop humping other monkeys - Boohoo's or something. I know cause I'm the same - I mean checking my phone, not the humping. There again....

Anyway I'm off to make a coffee whilst my phonevbattery recharges

The neutralising treatment could indeed be big bucks - if used prophylactically for healthcare workers talking millions of people. My own feeling is that it is at least a year away. Given its a new approach the preclinical work will be thorough and risks are high. To be honest I've not put into my own valuation since I think the fat lady will beat the bar by the time it arrives. However, say 6 months per person at £250 a week (its an infusion) is £6000 x say 100,000 front line staff in UK = £600,000,000 in the UK. Alternative charge £5000 and treat all hospital admisions would give you same value. That is just UK. The big part if it though might be the mile stone payments during 2020 - they are expecting several with CEO stating no more dilution from here (now that Boohoo made a mint in a matter of hours - grrrrrr)

Between now and end of July we ate going to find put whether Avacta has a POC rapid test or not. At that point the picture becomes clearer - if we don't SP will fall. The question though is on the assumption we have a reliable test what value can we calculate for this company - I believe current price reflects the unknowns. Number of tests required, cogs, pricing etc. I'm thinking structure rather than just thinking of a big number?

That would definitely seem within reasonable possibilities.