Member Info for RorkesDrift

BAMS

Over the weekend ran my numbers again. See three scenarios in short term

Avacta deliver a LFD of suitable performance. Generate contribution of £3B - based on margin of £3, 10% of first world work force tested every week for six months. Maybe conservative but the term hotspots is being used more frequently

Scenario 2 - no real news released. SP will drift downwards - note this will be PI driven sentiment.

Scenario 3. Avacta cannot deliver the LFD. SP will initially fall to 50p based on valuation pre-covid (15p) and the placing at £1.20 supported by greater awareness. Price will then move up, possibly in significant leaps as a number of pre-covid projects move forward. The pro-dox will remain high risk for next years and will not be on market for at least three years. There are significant hurdles to overcome. The oncology opportunity will not support current SP in short term should LFD fall over.

I think the company will deliver LFD and the first scenario is most likely - that delivers SP of £5+ rising to £10 dependent on manufacturing capacity

The liquid biopsy stuff including extraction of exosomes would seem to be relevant. If you are in Aim shares for cancer diagnostic then there are other options and heck Nasdaq gives you lots of choice. Strategically the board will have to prioritise and given the number of competing technologies they are likely to focus elsewhere. Being in oncology therapeutics doesn't really give you an advantage in oncology diagnostics - lots of companies have proven this.

The RoI at the moment, like you say, will be driven by a multitide of other ground breaking initiatives - 15 minutes with Avacta presentation highlights these.

There is some initial work in liver cancer and others here.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-10083-w

http://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar_url?url=http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/127708/1/Zhurauski%2520_Tomlinson%2520-%2520manuscript%2520revised.pdf&hl=en&sa=X&scisig=AAGBfm27gxAKa7-NEAs_ok3NUANPUmui5A&nossl=1&oi=scholarr

Tansu. For many diseases there is a characteristic biological response. For example in a heart attack you see proteins such as troponins become elevated. In sepsis a protein such as CRP. If you google biomarkers you will see what I mean.

There are numerous approaches to measuring biomarkers of which affirmers are just one. They do offer advantages - the company website covers them. By using affirmers and linking it to a method such as light emission or change in impedance you can get a quantitative measure out. Avacta (no W it seems to distract people) have already started development of several of these including sepsis. Note this quantative approach is a step on from the yes :no result of a LFD.

If there is a protein signature associated with a particular cancer and there is high prognostic value then affirmers should work. Whether they would be better then other approaches I couldn't tell you. They do lend themselves to bed side tests and one reader could be used for lots of different tests - light is light.

Not an expert

Bump

Yep - I'm up.

I'm struggling working out what the impact of the financing is - cash comes in and the dilution will be heavy. Not risk free but fingers crossed.

Given how many companies there are its a bit beyond credibility that so many high net individuals all invest in the same two shares - I'm also thinking that they tend to be a bit more critical - that's how they get to be high net worth individuals. That said Ophidian does seem to have a fair bit of biotech insight that goes beyond cutting and pasting the company presentations. I'll leave it at that but if it walks like a duck...

Thanks for the response - I'm looking at them. I thought the news this morning was about them.?

Ah zoom you might be on to something. Got to smile.

See you post on ODX - I don't want to go over there and potentially upset anyone but I thought the news today was positive for them. Any idea why their price basically didn't change?

TILS just hovers around the mark and most of the time the spread is huge. Good luck on the Gene drive - look a very interesting company. If you have time on your hands have a look at Protalix - their accounts are complicated with warrents and convertible notes but have just submitted to the FDA. Their product might be a little light on data but seems to have significant advantages over the incumbent. Just don't tell anyone.

Chill ninja. Its history - I wouldn't wish anyone to loose money but it is odd how many people are in both. I've had a look myself but I think I'll pass. Good luck though

That coincidence had also occurred to me - great minds. I have to confess I've lost absolutely no money in Bushveld.

I'm off for the weekend (give them a break).

You know on weds when the rns came out and the congregation started the happy clapping and somersaults. There was another opinion that this wasn't substaincial news. Coincidence.

The SP did go up momentarily came straight back down. There is a group that don't want balanced analysis - it gets in the way of their aims or it scares the bejuses out of them. In the end the market decided who was right and to me that's more affirming than anything else. Don't worry about the gas lighters - you got into Awata on your own skills - the guys on here who did the same understand. Keep smiling

I've hardly looked at any share prices this week - I've 9 stocks currently and they all have stuff that may come off in next six months Rather than hours. TILS is one of them so thanks for that. Its being out performed by the tip I gave you bit I'm not going to mention that. In the long run though im hoping I'll owe you a beer.

I'm guessing the ODX placing has had an impact and the demand for Ab testing is questionable - is it a don't buy?

Oi

Yep the TallPaul thing is classic.

PL75

Don't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. You know your stuff and keep focused on that - I know several people, well at least two value it. You have established some facta re other posters and tgey will be a bit more careful in future - they have ready toned down the level of self agrandisment which is a shame cause i havent finished writing my book. I think there is more going on than is worth the effort (18 likes for someone reposting an RNS!!!).

Step back, read some of the posts - genuinely so surreal its funny.

I heard on through news this morning that the govt RCT (Ab test) was going live.

Checked ODX just know but SP not moved.

Save me a job tesesrchinv it and tell me why

Cheers

RD