Member Info for Romeike

So we agree, I just happen to think there will be some kerfuffle in between. The incidence of White Knights stepping in at the last hour isn't high enough for a convincing bet at 55p with any serious amount of capital unfortunately. The time to take a gamble would be on a sharp fall in the price should the vote fail - and it is looking increasingly likely that it will. Some suggesting Medco may be pushed into upping bid to 5p "to get over the line" - if so - woopdydoo - hardly worth hanging around for when other shares offer better value at far less risk. I think the recent investors are conspiring to scupper the deal and put in place there own team, I can't think of another good reason for them to be acquiring now unless we suggest massive insider trading is going on.

I sold out at 54.90p. My reason - this isn't going to be sold. Not to Medco and not to some mythical white knight. Investors are gambling that they can buy in, scupper the deal and put in their own team to extract value by whatever means possible including divestment. The opportunity will be to buy a sharp drop as the deal collapses and parties aligned to Medco bail out. Hopefully the current board are stripped out and replaced.

I've never seen this happen with other deals, why would Takeda drop 50% that is crazy. Most people will want to hold onto the shares to avoid creating a large tax bill for themselves. Anyone for whom this isn't a consideration isn't holding enough to have any impact on the share price by selling.

If the board rejects the deal it seems certain that there will be volatility in the share price. The board will need to be more proactive about selling off non core assets like ophthalmology and organising a separate listing for the neuroscience business unit. In this way they will demonstrate delivering returns to shareholders and attract investors, improving the share price. At the moment they are asking investors to tolerate small biotech dividends for big pharma like growth. At least Takeda is promising to keep doling out 3% annually.

You need to get your tin hat out mate, this will be all over the place until the dust settles. Unless you have a very clear target price the best option is usually to hold. The bigger picture here is that rare disease specs have been targeted for acquisition this year, their drugs are less at risk of price pressures, Shire is the daddy of rare diseases.

I guess the next thing we will hear will be a formal offer on Wednesday. Either way it seems the best option is told hold, even if the current deal falls through, it is almost inevitable that there will be a deal for Shire at some point this year.

Although normally one increases the bid sufficiently for it to actually be worth people reading the paper the improved offer is on. Yes congrats they have upped the cash sufficiently to pretend this is an acquisition and not just a merger, now they need to move convincingly on price. Another couple of pounds might do it.

It's trading at a discount because most people are aware that Takeda cannot really afford to buy Shire, simple as that.

Maybe but that's a rumour, not official so far.

As a long term holder ordinarily I'd want to hold out for �54 minimum but things being as they with sentiment and the CEO's performance I'd be willing to see Shire change hands at �48 or so as long as half was cash and the rest was paper from a decent quality company with strong management like Allergan. If I haven't misunderstood I think a cash and equity deal can be more tax efficient as well for larger holdings. Maybe someone could inform us properly?

That makes no sense. If he knows then either he knows of one or he knows of two. Not "one or two". We can but hope though. Takeda are losing credibility with these weak bids.

Takeda simply cannot afford an all cash offer, even if Shire spun off neuro, takeda still couldn't afford an all cash offer.

The bids so far were to get Shire to the table. Shire came to the table, and negotiations have possibly even began already. Typically you could expect two things - a gap up in offer price to "secure the deal" and a significant increase in the weighting of cash to paper - these are the elements of deals held back to the end. It seems likely Takeda will make a take it or leave it offer. Perhaps 4850 at 40% cash.

notgreedy Couldn't agree less, your opinion on Shire is pure drivel.

Been posting on here over a year warning people to stay away. If you still have funds here you may as well just hold them in case a new CEO is brought in who can sell off the crap and make something of the research business.

I normally agree with you 100%, however when it comes to suggesting accounting malpractice and criminality at Shire, which is a highly respected blue chip firm, I draw the line.

I reported your comment. Absolute disgrace to write such trash with no attempt to even back up your lies.

@ABLE Perspective is an interesting thing. You say "strong board of very experienced director", whereas I see them inviting their old mates, most near retirement, onto the board to share in the gravy train, an easy life for a large salary, in exchange for lending some further credibility to what is a total joke of a company. I feel very sorry for any investors who get caught up with this AIM listing if it ever goes ahead. They face massive dilution at the hands of these guys. As for Stratex there is nothing left to say, it is a dead company.

More like a police / FCA investigation - �4.5 million gone, no explanation as to where, interim CEO looking to make fast exit, former CEO immediately took up CEO role at failed merger partner

Maybe so, but there are far better opportunities elsewhere for less risk and not so utterly dependent on an overpaid CEO and an apparently badly failing secretive & private junior partner. No news here for months, spend running at some 20 mil+ annually while income (in millions) can be counted on one hand. AVOID